On February 13, the rare earth index was 339, up 1 point from yesterday, 66.10% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.09% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals increased by 1000 yuan / ton to 368500 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 1500 yuan / ton to 284000 yuan / ton; dysprosium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1725000 yuan / ton; praseodymium oxide rose by 330000 yuan / ton; and neodymium oxide rose by 1000 yuan / ton to 294500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy increased by 3500 yuan / ton to 361500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 17005000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is rising, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, the export of heavy and rare earth is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, the domestic supply is reduced, in addition, due to the impact of the recent epidemic, some rare earth products are not fully back to work, the domestic supply of rare earth prices is tight, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth is rising. In addition to the recent resumption of production of some permanent magnet products, as well as the exhaustion of some inventory during the Spring Festival, the market trend of PR nd series products increased slightly, the supply in the field was tight, the recent demand for light rare earth was average, and the market price rose slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet started construction, but the demand in the downstream has not changed much in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, so as to promote China’s economy and the world economy We will play a positive role in our development. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced, coupled with domestic support for the export market of rare earth industry, the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way, and transportation is still limited in the near future, and the market price of rare earth is expected to continue to rise.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of February 11, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method is 5912.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride is depressed.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5800-6100 yuan / ton and 5500-5700 yuan / ton respectively. In North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5600-5900 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback. The downstream construction is not high, and the procurement is based on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is slightly down.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 11 is 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in port area is slightly lower, and the quotation is declining. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to the negotiation, which is discussed in detail. The price of phthalic anhydride market is lower due to the decrease of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, DOP enterprises started work normally, the operating rate dropped, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, DOP supply was normal, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, and the price trend in the downstream is slightly down. In addition, the price of ox in the upstream is down. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly down trend in the later period.

On February 7, the rare earth index was 338, unchanged from yesterday, 66.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 367500 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 645000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide increased by 2000 yuan / ton, by 5000 yuan / ton to 281000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.705 million yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 330000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 1500 yuan / ton to 293500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 358000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1685000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earths in the rare earth market is temporarily stable. The supply policy of domestic heavy and rare earths market is normal. Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, the domestic supply is reduced, and the price trend of domestic heavy and rare earths is stable. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products has increased slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price has increased slightly. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably controlled the sales. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet started construction, but the demand in the downstream has not changed much in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, so as to promote China’s economy and the world economy We will play a positive role in our development. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and 2019 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with domestic support for the export market of the rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will mainly fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, zinc prices plummeted after the opening on February 3. On February 3, the spot price of zinc was 17683.33 yuan / ton, and the price of zinc fell by 800 yuan / ton, or 4.72%. Zinc prices plummeted, zinc market bearish obvious.

2、 Market trend analysis

Market of domestic zinc enterprises

During the Spring Festival and the anti epidemic period, most of the zinc smelting enterprises were in normal production or had personnel on duty, and some enterprises resumed work on February 10. However, due to the limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to deliver goods; in terms of raw materials, most smelting enterprises have inventory from January to February, and the supply of raw materials is stable. Affected by the logistics and transportation, the situation of finished products piling up in the plant area often occurs. In the downstream, most of the galvanizing plants went to work on February 10. The sales situation of zinc ingots was poor, and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased a lot. In general, the supply of zinc is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price of zinc is under great pressure.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that during the Spring Festival, the price of zinc in LME market plummeted. The pessimism spread in zinc market, and zinc price plummeted all the way. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market’s demand for zinc is expected to decline, and it is bearish to the macro-economy. The market’s risk aversion psychology is prominent. Financial customers mainly short and maintain their value, and the future market is bearish.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business association, believes that during the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the logistics and transportation are limited, the zinc enterprises are difficult to ship, the zinc smelter’s finished product inventory is often overstocked, the downstream customers stop production frequently, and the downstream demand drops; in terms of supply, the zinc smelter generally has inventory to maintain normal production, and there are more on duty personnel during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ingot production is basically normal, The supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the social stock of zinc ingots has increased significantly; the outbreak of the epidemic, the market risk aversion mentality is prominent, financial customers mainly short and maintain the value, the external quotation fell sharply during the Spring Festival, increasing the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for zinc ingots has declined for a short time, the risk aversion psychology of zinc city is prominent, zinc market is short more, the supply of zinc market is normal, the stock of zinc ingots has increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market is prominent in the short term, the power of zinc price rising is insufficient, and it is expected that zinc price will rise difficultly in February, with a large downward pressure.

1、 Price trend

Price increase of regions from the beginning of January to the 31st of January

Zhejiang 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2800-2900 yuan / ton 7.69%

Jiangsu 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2650-2700 yuan / ton 10.42%

Shandong 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 12.5%

Henan 2300-2350 yuan / ton 2400-2450 yuan / ton 4.35%

Hebei 2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 10%

South China 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2700-2750 yuan / ton 3.85%

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise in January, with an average price of 2483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 10.74% in the whole month.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in 2020, affected by the factors such as stock arrangement and downstream stock preparation of enterprises before the festival, the overall stock position of domestic acetic acid market continues, and there is a certain shortage of spot supply, so the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and during the Spring Festival, all acetic acid enterprises still maintain a relatively high rate of operation. Affected by the recent pneumonia epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the traffic and logistics around the country are limited, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth, and the market supply may decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market is in shock and consolidation, and the pre festival market transaction is stagnant, at present, about 2242 yuan / ton; in the downstream, acetate, vinyl acetate and PTA industries are gradually entering the off-market period, with a good degree of stock before the festival, which is good for the price support of acetic acid, but with the extension of the Spring Festival and the development of pneumonia, the end of the market will be no longer good for the support.

International: at present, the international acetic acid market is affected by the high price of raw materials methanol, and the price of acetic acid is firm, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 340-395 yuan / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetate analysts of the business association, due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the impact of the pneumonia epidemic, the domestic acetic acid market is still flat, the downstream market and traders have a high degree of completion of goods preparation before the festival, and it is difficult to improve the demand to a large extent in the short term. In addition, due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, it is expected to run smoothly in the short term.