1、 Price trend

As of March 10, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5375 yuan / ton, down 2.63% month on month and 0.15% year-on-year, according to the monitoring data of business agency. The domestic ethanol market fell significantly.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic alcohol market dropped significantly. The price of Henan Province is slightly higher this week, because the inventory of enterprises in Henan Province is not high, the enterprises raise the offer, the contract order continues, and the new order carries out the new price, which has little change compared with the same period last week; the price in northeast Jilin Province falls, the downstream demand is weak, and the market transaction is weak; the price in East China is weak, and the shipment is general, and some customers in East China purchase locally after the price increase in Henan Province However, the current price is close to the cost line, and there is little room for market price reduction; the market delivery pressure of enterprises in Yunnan is too high, the downstream recovery is slow, and the overall trading atmosphere is weak.

Industry chain: corn: domestic corn spot prices rose and fell, while Changchun rose slightly, while Weifang fell. The increase of purchasing entities in Northeast China and the opening of warehouses directly under the central government’s Grain Reserve play a supporting role in the spot price of corn. However, the rise of corn price in Northeast China has not led to the continuous rise of spot corn price in Shandong Province. With the increase of arrival in Shandong Province, the purchase price of corn of most grain consuming enterprises has declined significantly, and it is expected that the price fluctuation in North China will become normal in the short term. At present, the logistics transportation affected by the epidemic is gradually recovering. With the increase of temperature, the progress of grain sales at the grass-roots level has been accelerated. In the future, the progress of grain sales at the grass-roots level and the recovery of logistics transportation will be continuously concerned.

Ethyl acetate: the weakness of domestic ethyl acetate market continued this week. The continuous drop of raw acetic acid gave ethyl acetate profit space, and the market of ethyl acetate itself had no power. The trend mainly followed the fluctuation of raw acetic acid, leading to the widespread bearish sentiment of all parties in the market. In East China and North China markets, suppliers made stable offers at the beginning of each week, and the market transactions continued to be rational. With the gradual accumulation of inventory of individual enterprises, the South China market dropped significantly this week, and the local cargo supply was sufficient. Due to the slow recovery of the downstream terminals, the substantial demand for ethyl acetate was low, and the carriers were forced to compete to reduce the price of shipments, which promoted the market transactions to fall, and the price fell this week Hanging is serious. The short-term domestic ethyl acetate Market is difficult to alleviate the negative situation. With the recovery of the downstream, the competition between suppliers continues. It is expected that the short-term East China and North China markets will still fall, and the high-end South China market will mainly fall.

3、 Future forecast

Business alcohol analysts expect the short-term domestic ethanol market to consolidate operation, waiting for the downstream resumption of work.

Last Friday, OPEC and Russia talked about the crude oil production reduction plan, and staged the black swan again. Unlike last September, the black swan caused the crude oil to plummet.

As of 4 p.m. on March 9, WTI crude oil in April fell to around $30 / barrel, down more than 25%, and fell to $27.34/barrel at one time.

The sharp drop in crude oil has a strong negative effect on the domestic petrochemical market, with some chemical futures directly falling to a halt at the opening. Natural rubber also inevitably fell. As of the end of May, the contract of natural rubber fell to 10290 yuan / ton, down 5.90%.

Although the sharp decline of crude oil has a great negative pressure on commodities, on the one hand, it will take a certain time for the transmission of crude oil price to downstream chemicals; on the other hand, the current decline of crude oil price is too fast, which will lead to the sharp rise of crude oil with the adjustment of Saudi Arabia and other policies. Therefore, at present, the impact of crude oil on synthetic rubber is still in the short-term stage.

From the perspective of petrochemical manufacturers, at present, the factory price of domestic synthetic rubber is stable: the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company is stable, at present, the ex warehouse price of Daqing and Jinzhou cis-2 is 9800 yuan / ton; the price of emulsion polybutadiene rubber of CNPC Northeast sales company is stable, at present, the price of Jilin 1502 is 9800 yuan / ton, the price of northeast warehouse is increased; Fushun 1502 is 9800 yuan / ton, the price of northeast warehouse is increased; Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd The price of NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 14000 yuan / ton, and 3305e reports 14500 yuan / ton.

From the market point of view, due to the impact of crude oil plummeting, the atmosphere of domestic synthetic rubber market is bleak, but the quotation still hasn’t been significantly reduced. Some traders have carefully lowered the price by 50-200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main stream of Fushun 1502 is 9600 yuan / ton, the main stream of Jihua 1502 is 9800 yuan / ton, and the main stream of Qilu is 9850 yuan / ton; the main stream of Shunding and Daqing in Tianjin is 9850 yuan / ton Shunding mainstream newspaper 9700 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price was 11420 yuan / ton, 0.71% higher than 11340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 5.17% year on year.

Products: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. Recently, the delivery situation of the manufacturers on the site has improved. Some manufacturers on the site haven’t resumed production for the time being. In addition, the transportation is still limited. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, and the purchase demand has increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased. The price of raw material fluorite has remained high recently, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to some extent The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the south is rising. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China has increased. In recent years, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the delivery orders of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have increased. Some manufacturers reflect the recent price increase. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was about 11000-11500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 11000-11500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 11000-12000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the factory price of fluorite was 3144.44 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China was tight, and the price of fluorite rose. The rise of upstream cost price had a certain cost support impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In the near future, some manufacturers still haven’t resumed production. The supply of fluorite in China is very tight, which has a certain impact on the hydrofluoric acid market Cost support. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is general. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The domestic R22 supply is normal. The market price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 is temporarily stable. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air conditioning manufacturers stop more and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is average. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the price remains stable, while the downstream purchase is still on demand. The downstream market is average, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is tight, coupled with the downstream refrigerant industry on-demand procurement, hydrofluoric acid market price trend.

In recent years, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant units has increased. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is on demand. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is tight. In addition, the supply of raw materials in the market is limited in the near future, and the cost price is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 1 was 11233 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 29 was 10633 yuan / ton, with the price down 5.34%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on March 4 is 53.15, which is the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.85% lower than the peak of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11200 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11150 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11150 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11500 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device. Hubei sanning caprolactam liquid offers 10200 / T. The plant capacity of the manufacturer is 140000 tons / year.

Industrial chain: affected by social public events, crude oil and external pure benzene declined significantly. Domestic: the downstream of pure benzene has low starting load and limited demand; the transportation is relatively limited and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active. Caprolactam maintains low load operation, with less demand for solvents, and it is expected that the purchase demand for cyclohexanone is still low. However, the recent delivery of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and the social inventory pressure is too high.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2020, there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%) and fluorite (8.05%). There are 48 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 27 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 22.76%), propane (- 21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 18.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.53%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of the business club think: at present, the market of caprolactam is cold, and the air atmosphere is relatively strong in the market. The demand is not good, and the current inventory is large. Due to the sharp decline of crude oil leading to the decline of raw materials and weak cost support, it is expected that caprolactam market will still fall in March, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in February was relatively weak, and the spot price was mostly reduced. As of Monday, March 2, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of February.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic market price of propylene in the upstream of PP has been declining since February, and the overall trend is downward. Among them, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has declined all the way. In addition, social health events have affected many units in the upstream and downstream industries to stop production and repair, and the operating rate is still low. Under the pressure of inventory in some refineries, low-cost shipments have been made. There are few staged transactions in the market, and the market is cold. China’s propylene market bottomed out in May. During the period, the crude oil market changed little in terms of raw materials, but it was raised for several days in a row. The propylene production is relatively small, but the return to work of terminal manufacturers is on the rise, and the logistics and transportation are also recovering, which has a certain effect on alleviating the weak demand for propylene. The market price of propylene is expected to increase in recent days.

Product: in early February, the domestic logistics was not smooth, which led to the increase of PP inventory pressure in petrochemical plants. In terms of demand, although downstream factories began to resume work, there were fewer workers and lower starting load. By the end of February, the domestic logistics was further restored. At present, the sales of low-cost materials were good, and the manufacturers were consuming inventory smoothly. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure has been eased, and the confidence of operators has been boosted. In terms of demand, the downstream factories have resumed work one after another, the factory’s operating rate has increased, and there is a phenomenon of replenishment. Producers and distributors are stable in mind, and it’s OK to go single.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: from the result, the domestic PP spot market in February was generally weak, and the upstream propylene price rebounded to the bottom, which reflected the support of PP cost end until the end of the month. The resistance of Limited Logistics and transportation began to reduce, and the resumption of downstream factories accelerated. The demand has improved, the stock of petrochemical plants has decreased, the operators are on the market, and the orders are stable. It is expected that PP market will fluctuate or go higher in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the market of cost end propylene.