According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic br market rose slightly this week (6.8-6.12), with the price at the beginning of the week at 7520 yuan / ton and at the end of the week at 7620 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 1.33%.

The ex factory price of domestic Shunding rubber petrochemical factory was increased by 100 yuan / ton. As of June 12, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 7500 yuan / ton. Traders followed suit. Due to the restart of Shunding units of Maoming Petrochemical and Yanshan Petrochemical, the pressure on the supply side increased. In addition, this week’s Shunding inventory increased slightly compared with last week’s, and the overall supply side of Shunding rubber was negative. Adverse cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply.

The price of raw materials fell slightly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was limited. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene at the beginning of this week was 3801 yuan / ton, while that at the end of this week was 3767 yuan / ton, down 0.89% overall.

The operating rate of downstream tire plants has declined slightly, and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is mostly purchased on demand. At present, the operating rate of all steel tire is around 60-70%, and that of half steel tire is around 50-60%. The overall demand is weak and stable.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, the price of raw materials is low, on the other hand, downstream demand is not significantly boosted, and it is expected that the overall trend of Shunding will be weak consolidation in the short term.

On June 13, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 41.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 59.25% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 38.61% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

This week’s crude oil market fell after a shock. On Wednesday and Thursday, it rose slightly and then fell rapidly. As of June 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. fell sharply. The settlement price of major contracts was 36.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 3.26 U.S. dollars or 8.23%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of main contracts was 38.55 US dollars / barrel or 7.62%, mainly due to the restart of epidemic demand concerns and the record high of crude oil storage in the United States. On Thursday, U.S. stocks and commodity futures market represented by crude oil generally fell, market concerns dominated, and risk assets were sold again.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

Price adjustment amount after date increase unit: yuan / ton

June 5 3600 100 ↑ yuan / ton

June 10 3700 100 ↑ yuan / ton

As of June 12, 2020, Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene for two times, with a cumulative increase of 200 yuan / ton. This week, Sinopec has raised the price once, with an increase of 100 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, it will implement 3700 yuan / ton.

Price changes of hydrogenated benzene in main domestic markets from June 8 to 12

Regional 8-day price 10-day price 12-day price weekly fluctuation unit: yuan / ton

East China 3650-3700 3700-3800 3700-3800 75 yuan / ton

Shandong 3650-3700 3650-3750 3650-37000 yuan / ton

Affected by the trend of crude oil shocks, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton on the 10th, and the price of pure benzene rose significantly on the outer market. On the 11th, the price of crude benzene rose by 200 yuan / ton in a new round of bidding, and the price of Shandong Province was about 3100 yuan / ton, which brought peripheral benefits to the hydrogenated benzene market. The market price of hydrogenated benzene rose by about 50 yuan / ton. Later, affected by the decline of crude oil and the drop of pure benzene shocks, China The market price of internal hydrocracking benzene was back to the level at the beginning of the week.

The operating rate of downstream styrene and phenol enterprises fell slightly this week. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the market price of some products fell, and the market support for hydrogenated benzene was insufficient. As of Friday, the comprehensive operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is less than 60%, slightly higher than that of the earlier stage, which is at a higher level in 2020. Overall, the supply and demand are relatively balanced. However, with the decline of crude oil price and the tightening of downstream profits, the support of hydrobenzene by the demand side is limited.

In the aftermarket, the business community believed that with the weakening of the pure benzene market, the downstream support was limited, although the hydrogenation benzene enterprises suck up temporarily under the support of cost pressure, but with the increase in the negative impact of fundamentals and the lack of downstream demand, the market for hydrogen benzene market will have a larger lead time.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, PA66 market recovered in the second week of June, with the prices of various brands rising. As of June 12, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 18900.00 yuan / ton, which is 0.53% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

Recently, the price trend of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 continued the weak trend of last month, with weak price fluctuation and lack of market direction. At present, the domestic spot price of adipic acid is adjusted and operated in a narrow range. According to the data of the business agency, as of June 12, the main quotation of adipic acid in East China was about 6720 yuan / ton on average, with the increase and decrease of dealers’ quotation showing each other, and the average price amplitude since the beginning of the month is 0.90%. In terms of upstream cost, the favorable crude oil market still lags behind the conduction of adipic acid. In terms of direct raw material pure benzene, affected by the crude oil market, the market is relatively positive, the reaction of adipic acid is slow and the follow-up is not good, coupled with the sharp drop of pure benzene in the early stage by more than 50%, resulting in the actual performance of adipic acid lagging behind. In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of enterprises in the near future has remained around 80%. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the inventory pressure is still the same. The downstream orders are not timely and the actual delivery is less. The price is also at a low level, so the profit space of the merchants is not large in fact, and the delivery strength is naturally poor. Adipic acid is not expected to improve in the near future.

The upstream adipic acid did not support the PA66 cost side, and the market price of PA66 recovered this week after a long weak trend. According to the data of the business agency, PA66, which has been floating green for a long time, peaked at about 18900 yuan / ton on June 11 this week, with the weekly amplitude of 1.61% for all brands in the spot market. At present, the operation rate of domestic PA66 manufacturers is not high, and the pressure of long-term sufficient supply of PA66 spot inventory has eased. In addition, the consumption of PA66 at home and abroad has increased. At present, the shipping resistance of merchants has decreased, the downstream replenishment demand is appropriate, the market inquiry atmosphere is warmer, and the delivery and investment situation is actually warmer.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second week of June, the domestic PA66 market has recovered. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable at a low level, which is weak to support the PA66 cost side. The downstream factories have improved their delivery and PA66 consumption has increased. The background of the market supply-demand contradiction was slightly eased, business confidence was strengthened, and the offer was raised. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased recently. As of the 11th day, the price of phthalic anhydride by phthalic acid method has been 5275 yuan / ton. The market price of phthalic anhydride has increased by 5.76% in four days, down 9.57% year on year. In the near future, the price of phthalic anhydride has increased with the increase of the market price of phthalic anhydride.

In recent years, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market has gone up, the situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the high price of crude oil has boosted domestic petrochemical products, the price of ortho benzene has been affected, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has been boosted. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is about 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, the on-site merchants are bullish, and the on-site trading market is picking up. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is higher, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method’s goods source is 5200-5500 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method’s goods source is 4900-5100 yuan / ton. In North China, the main flow of negotiation of phthalic anhydride market is 5200-5400 yuan / ton, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising.

The most favorable factor for the recent increase of phthalic anhydride market price is the increase of domestic phthalic acid price. The upstream product of phthalic anhydride, domestic phthalic Sinopec, has increased the executive price by 100 yuan / ton to 4300 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in the port area has recovered, and the external quotation of phthalic acid has increased. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The details are discussed in detail. In addition, there is strong bullish sentiment among the phthalic acid merchants in the site, and the price of phthalic acid has increased The increase in the price of phthalic anhydride is a good support for the increase in the market price of phthalic anhydride.

Another positive support is the higher price of downstream DOP market. In June, the price of plasticizer DOP rose and the market performance of DOP was strong. Recently, the price of DOP in East China is 7133.33 yuan / ton, which is 2.15% higher than that of DOP at the beginning of the month (6983.33 yuan / ton). In addition, the price of isooctanol is rising, and the market price of DOP is higher. The market of plasticizer industry has recovered, and the price of DOP market is 7100-7350 yuan / ton. The trading enthusiasm of market plasticizer has increased, and the downstream market is higher, which is good support for domestic phthalic anhydride market and higher phthalic anhydride market.

The final positive factor is that crude oil price remains high. According to the monitoring of bureau business agency, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose on the 10th, and the settlement price of main contract was US $39.60/barrel, that of Brent crude oil futures market rose, and that of main contract was US $41.73/barrel. Crude oil prices remained at a high level in June, together with production reduction agreements reached by major oil producers, which pushed crude oil prices up slightly. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of excess supply is still the primary problem that puzzles the oil market. However, with the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. Driven by the sharp increase of crude oil price, the price of domestic petrochemical products will be boosted, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will be higher.

In the near future, crude oil price is high and volatile, the price trend of raw material o-benzene is rising, and the transaction of plasticizer is positive. The downward pressure of DOP market in the future is still strong, and the sustained good support is still there. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of June 10, the comprehensive price of domestic PC market was 14933.33 yuan / ton, up 21.41% compared with the same period last month, up 7.69% compared with the beginning of June, with a total increase of 2600 yuan / ton, exceeding 500 yuan / ton per day.

In recent years, the PC market continues to rise, maintaining a high level of operation, and businesses are cautious to wait and see. Driven by cost pressure, the market is afraid of heights, and the trend of rising water and high ships is all obvious. With the resumption of production and work of various units, schools start one after another, there will be a demand rise for home appliance market, automotive industry, electronic products, and living plastic products. The PC market will rise in recent days The latest price of lihuayi is 14500 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 700 yuan / ton, 14600 yuan / ton of Luxi Chemical Industry and 14800 yuan / ton of Sinopec Mitsubishi.

The upstream BPA market is relatively strong, with strong cost support and tight supply. At present, the mainstream quotation is around 12600-12700 yuan / ton.

On June 9, the PC commodity index was 61.34, up 0.42 points from yesterday, down 51.34% from 126.05 (2017-12-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 20.65% from 50.84, the lowest point on May 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

PC analysts of business club think: PC has been rising for several consecutive days in the short term. In the near future, it mainly digests the previous gains, and the price may fall in the future. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)