1、 Price trend

 

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable after rising this week, with a slight decline over the weekend, with the weekly low price of 6785 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6870 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 6876 yuan / ton on Wednesday and Thursday, with a weekly increase of 1.25% and a weekly amplitude of 1.34%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price dropped by about 250 yuan / ton. From the 12th to the 16th, the price dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. Since the third round of rise on 18th, the price has risen about 150 yuan / ton. In recent days, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6800 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6800-6850 yuan / ton. Now propylene manufacturers shipping general, inventory pressure is not big.

 

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On July 23, crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Recently, PP futures market was weak, spot price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.68%, which may have a little negative impact on propylene.

 

Acrylic acid market this week to maintain stability, the impact on propylene is not big.

 

Propylene oxide market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 3.64%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

 

The price of epichlorohydrin remained stable this week, and fell by 1.36% at the end of the week, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

 

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable in the first half of this week, and rose in the second half, with a weekly increase of 2.10%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

 

Octanol market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 2.12%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

 

The isopropanol market showed a steady downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 2.23%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

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Phenol in East China rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 1.79%.

 

East China acetone has a slight decline this week, with a weekly decline of 3.54%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, but the shipment is general, the crude oil price is slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, the PP market is relatively calm, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is stable. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still in the upper limit of the oscillation range, so it is expected that propylene prices will generally decline in the near future.

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According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, due to the poor demand, the East China ethyl acetate market began to decline gradually. As of July 22, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5570 yuan / ton, down 0.9% compared with the same period last week and 3.72% higher than that of the same period last month.

 

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At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic ethyl acetate Market as a whole. The demand in the downstream market is weak, and the supply exceeds the demand in the industry. However, the overall performance of the upstream market is strong, and the pressure on the production cost of enterprises is obvious, and the market performance is stagnant.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall supply and demand game of acetic acid market, and the fluctuation of some enterprises’ devices led to a slight rise in prices, but the overall market still tends to be stable. With the expected increase of future supply, there is a possibility of a decline in the long term. The ethanol market continued to rise, and the price of raw material corn supported the rise of ethanol price. Some enterprises did not make an offer and the market supply was tight.

 

Internationally, the overall performance of international ethyl acetate is relatively stable, among which the port price of European market is about 740 euro / ton; the port price of North American market is about 650-670 US dollars / ton.

 

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the spot supply of domestic ethyl acetate Market is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the market transaction is insufficient. Although the cost side support is strong, the situation of oversupply in the industry is difficult to ease, and it is expected to operate stably in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business agency, as of July 21, the average price of maleic anhydride in China was 6433 yuan / ton (including tax), and the overall market was stable, with a decrease of 0.52% compared with the average price of 6533 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

 

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On July 21, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 60.60, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 51.00% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 18.41% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Products: at present, the domestic price of maleic anhydride continues to rise, the transaction center of various markets moves up, the spot supply in the industry is tight, some middlemen offer high prices, and the main production areas have the intention to continue to increase the price of new orders, driving the surrounding market up.

 

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Industrial chain: affected by the decline of raw materials, the price of hydrobenzene market continued to decline, and the market was still reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene market may remain stagnant, and the hydrobenzene market fundamentals are still under pressure; the downstream unsaturated resin market is in a horizontal direction, with strong market wait-and-see sentiment, and with maleic anhydride, the cost pressure is becoming increasingly obvious.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of the business agency, the current market of maleic anhydride is rising continuously, and Nanxun is the dominant source of goods in various regions. Enterprises are reluctant to sell more prices, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be firm in the short term.

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Price trend:

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the contract quotation of Sinopec o-benzene was stable in July. As of July 20, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4500 yuan / T in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month and 24.41% lower than that of the same period in 19 years. The price of o-benzene is lower than that of the same period in 19 years.

 

Price trend of raw materials

 

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It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price fell in July, the raw material cost of o-benzene decreased, the o-benzene market was negative, and the future market of o-xylene was bearish.

 

Trend of downstream products

 

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price fell in July, and the phthalic anhydride market fell all the way. The downstream of o-benzene was lower, the demand for o-benzene decreased, and the market of o-benzene was negative.

 

Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, the upstream and downstream market of the o-xylene industry chain both fell in July, which had a greater negative impact on the o-xylene market and increased the pressure on the decline of o-benzene. The external price of o-benzene decreased slightly, which was negative for the domestic market of o-benzene. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene is unfavorable, and the downward pressure on the future market of o-benzene increases. It is difficult to maintain the stability of o-benzene market, and it is expected that the market of o-benzene will decline in the future.

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 17, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5566 yuan / ton. Compared with the end of last week (July 12), the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 400 yuan / ton, or 6.70%. Compared with the beginning and end of this month (July 1), the price dropped by 433 yuan / ton, or 7.22%.

 

This week, China’s domestic n-butanol market fell significantly. On Monday (13th), due to the delay in the overhaul of some n-butanol units, the supply of n-butanol increased in the short term, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high in the two days last weekend, and the shipment was slow. The n-butanol market of most factories fell collectively. On the 13th, the reference average price of n-butanol market was 5783.33 yuan / ton, down 183.34 yuan / ton, or 3.07%, compared with last weekend (July 10). After the price fell, the market demand did not improve significantly, and it was still weak. With the increasing supply, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and purchasing on demand was the main factor. The manufacturers mostly adjusted the ex factory price of n-butanol according to the market situation, and the price of n-butanol continued to decline in this week. As of Friday (17th), the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol has dropped to 5566 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton, or 6.70%, compared with last Friday (July 12). Among them, Wanhua chemical’s ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 5600 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton or 6.66% lower than last Friday (July 12); Shandong lihuayi’s ex factory price of n-butanol is 5500 yuan / ton, compared with last Friday (July 12) Compared with Friday (July 12), the price of n-butanol from Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. dropped by 400 yuan / T, or 6.77%; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5700 yuan / T, which was 300 yuan / T, or 5.0% lower than that of last Friday (July 12).

 

The current market price of n-butanol in some regions of China is attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

 

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Product Name: up / down on 7 / 13 / 7 / 17

N-butanol-5900-5950-5800-5850 – 100 / – 100 in East China

South China Region – 6200-6300-6000-6200 – 200 / – 100

North China – 5750-5850-5500-5700 – 250 / – 150

Northeast China – 5750-5850 – 5700 – 5800 – 50 / – 50

 

On the upstream side, the overall domestic propylene market continued to decline this week. According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene price fluctuated periodically in recent years, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price has been adjusted back by about 250 yuan / ton. On October 10 and 11, the price was roughly flat. The price started to decline twice on the 12th, and fell again by about 50 yuan / ton on the 16th. Now, the total price has dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6670 yuan / ton and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6700 yuan / ton. There is a certain pressure on propylene manufacturers to ship.

 

On the downstream side, this week, the domestic butyl acrylate market is weak and plummeting, the price center is continuously falling, the downstream demand is very little, the market inquiry is cold, and the market transaction situation is not good. The price of raw material n-butanol went down, and the cost pressure was relieved.

 

At present, the market price of n-butanol has fallen to the cost price, and the factory is keen to stabilize the price. Although the market of raw material propylene declines as a whole, the downward speed slows down and the overall trend tends to stabilize operation, which gives some support to n-butanol. In addition, it is heard that the raw material inventory of n-butanol as downstream butyl acrylate is gradually exhausted, and the downstream may usher in a small amount of stock. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic market will be in a positive position in the future Butanol market has a trend of stabilizing or slightly rising.

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