In November, the overall trend of propane market was weak, with frequent fluctuations in the month. The price rose and fell, and the market was more tortuous. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on November 1 was 3845.00 yuan / ton, and that on November 30 was 3800.00 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.17% in the month and a decrease of 6.35% compared with the same period last year.

 

According to the annual comparison chart of business associations, it is found that in recent years, the price of propane Market in the same period has reached more than 4000 yuan / ton, but the price of propane market this year (2020) is lower than that of previous years. In November, the propane Market, which should have been in the peak demand season, did not rise as scheduled. In November this year, Shandong propane market only continued the silver ten rising trend at the beginning of the month. On the 12th, the market began to fall, and the price dropped successively. Near the end of the month, the 23-25 market only rebounded once, but the rebound was blocked, and finally fell to the end of November.

 

As of November 30, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification November 30

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 953630-3700 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3750-3830 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3750-3955 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953500-3600 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953800-3830 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, there were many positive factors in the market, which supported the continued rise of propane. In terms of the international market, international crude oil rose for three consecutive times, and the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly. The news was favorable to the market mentality. In addition, with the introduction of CP price in November, both propylene and butane rose sharply, bringing obvious support to the market, and the manufacturers continuously raised the ex factory prices. The average price in Shandong rose to 3739.50 yuan / ton, just one step away from the 4000 yuan / ton mark.

 

However, the rise was hindered. Due to the resumption of production in some refineries in Shandong Province, the arrival of goods at ports increased compared with the previous period, which restrained the price rise. Starting from the 12th, the market went out of a continuous downward line. At the same time, the demand did not meet the expectations, the weather cooling was not obvious, the market demand was still weak, the terminal consumption was slow, the downstream periodic replenishment was the main, and the market was in the situation of oversupply. Near the end of the month, 23-25 market rebound. Due to the continuous rise of international crude oil, the news brought a significant boost to the market. In addition, the rising cost of gas intake has significantly supported the market. Shandong propane market finally stopped falling and rose. However, the good times did not last long, and the rally only lasted for 3 days. With the weakness of crude oil and the absence of good market, it returned to the downward trend again and finally ended in November.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco CP announced in December that both propylene and butane were increased. Propane was 450 US dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton from last month; butane was 460 dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton from last month. CP rose in December, bringing good news to the market.

 

At present, the rise of CP price in December has brought certain benefits to the market. Although the international crude oil has weakened, it is still at a relatively high level, bringing support to the market. Although it is difficult to improve the situation of oversupply in the short term, the winter weather continues to cool down, and the demand is still expected to rise. Near the end of the year, with the enthusiasm of downstream market entry gradually improved, propane market is expected to rise in December.

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Price trend:

 

PVA 2699

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market continued to run strongly in November, and the spot price fluctuated and rose. As of December 1, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 19250.00 yuan / ton, which was 10.00% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

Factor analysis:

 

ABS upstream Styrene Market in November, domestic Styrene Market in October, the whole month’s rise was gratifying. Affected by the strong demand, the downstream enterprises shortened the shutdown period and scope during the national day, and the operating rate remained above 80%. The inventory of styrene production enterprises did not increase but decreased. The market mentality is strong, at the same time the downstream price goes up, pushing up styrene in reverse. Peripheral news negative chemical industry chain, drag styrene up market. By the end of November, the mainstream price of styrene declined. On the 16th, the price of sample enterprises of business cooperatives was 9266.67 yuan / ton, and on the 24th, the price of sample enterprises was 8450.00 yuan / ton. Crude oil fluctuated widely in November and the overall price rose. The price of pure benzene rose first and then fell, following the trend of styrene. It is expected that styrene will run in shock in the near future.

 

In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, raw material propylene weakened in October and rose sharply in November, followed by an increase in acrylonitrile market. On the whole, the crude oil in the upstream of the far end increased, which was beneficial to acrylonitrile. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remained high, and after the rise of acrylonitrile, it began to bear pressure and reduce negative pressure. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is still controllable, and business offers are generally adjusted up, with part of the hype atmosphere. Downstream demand is general, mainly against high price goods. The future demand may decrease, which will form resistance to the price rise of acrylonitrile. But at present, acrylonitrile can still maintain a strong position, and the price is expected to be high in the short term.

 

In November, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise due to the influence of external market, and the rising trend slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price rose to 9938 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.03% within the month, and a 12.50% increase year-on-year. The butadiene market rose significantly and lasted for a long time, mainly driven by the external market. Combined with the influence of maintenance of some foreign units, the domestic butadiene market price continued to rise. However, the demand for downstream rubber market is weak. Although the main butadiene manufacturers have raised the ex factory quotation for many times, the actual transaction is limited. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market high finishing.

 

In November, the domestic ABS market was active, and the price fluctuated and rose. The prices of the three upstream materials are up and down, and the overall cost support is temporarily stable. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is still tight, and the arrival volume in East China at the beginning of the month is relatively large, and the growth trend is slowing down. However, the terminal demand is still strong, and the consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and automobile industry remains stable, and the market demand has a certain foundation. With the increasing cost pressure of downstream factories, the purchasing operation gradually has a certain resistance to the high price goods, and starts to maintain the just needed goods. At the end of last ten days, I heard that some household electrical appliances factories had taken the initiative to reduce production, and the resistance of downstream to high price goods increased.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market rose in November, the price of each brand rose better. The cost side of the upstream three material ups and downs on the ABS cost side of the support is OK. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still tight, but the rise in the early stage is large, and the downstream demand is gradually showing a weak state. At present, the downstream factories are more resistant to high price goods, and there are low price orders in the actual transaction. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted in the near future.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the copper price rose sharply in November, from 51528.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 57491.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 11.57% and a year-on-year increase of 21.47%. After four months of high horizontal consolidation, copper prices began to rise rapidly to a seven-year high in late November. Copper has a strong metal attribute. After the recent U.S. election risk has gradually weakened, with the progress of the new crown vaccine and the optimistic expectation of overseas fiscal stimulus, copper prices have continued to rise.

 

According to the current chart of business associations, the spot price of copper in November was basically slightly higher than the futures price. The main contract is the expected price two months later, which shows that the market expected price is not so optimistic, but the price is very close, which shows that there is no need to be too pessimistic. The copper price is still relatively strong in the short term.

 

Domestic macro trend

 

The domestic epidemic situation control has achieved a key victory, the economy has recovered steadily, and various economic data have improved significantly. In October, the added value of China’s industries above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and is expected to increase by 6.5%. In addition to China’s accession to RECP, copper and its products are among the industries whose export growth rate is more than 20%. Therefore, the data is more optimistic.

 

Supply is still tight

 

As for copper concentrate, Chile’s president decided on September 11 to extend the national emergency law, which came into effect on March 18, for another 90 days from September 15. At present, the impact on production is still relatively limited, but the potential threat to transportation is still there. Moreover, with the rebound of copper price and the fermentation of epidemic situation, there have been continuous mine strikes in Chile since the end of the third quarter. Among them, a trade union of Lundin Mining Co., Ltd., located in the Candelaria copper mine in northern Chile, has accepted its proposed collective labor agreement for a period of 35 months. Previously, these workers have been on strike for more than one month. At present, all five unions in the mine have paid new salaries with them The contract was agreed. Although Peru’s production is steadily recovering, it is understood that its transportation links are still greatly affected. Moreover, the increase of overseas mines in 2021 is limited, especially in the first half of the year, copper concentrate may maintain a tight supply pattern, supporting the copper price.

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

The downstream market is optimistic

 

In terms of automobiles: in October, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.522 million and 2.573 million respectively, up 0.9% and 0.1% month on month, and 11.0% and 12.5% respectively year-on-year. As of November, automobile production and sales have been growing for seven consecutive months, of which the sales volume has maintained a growth rate of more than 10% for six consecutive months. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles were 19519 million and 19.69 million, respectively, down 4.6% and 4.7% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 2.1 and 2.2 percentage points compared with January September.

 

Household appliances: according to the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the national real estate development investment was 11655.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January September. In terms of real estate development prosperity index, the real estate development prosperity index in October was 100.5, 0.08 points higher than that in August.

 

Household appliances: in October, China’s refrigerator output was 8.796 million units, up 25.8% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative production of refrigerators in China was 73.711 million units, up 4% year-on-year. In October, China’s air conditioning output reached 14.489 million units, up 0.2% year-on-year.

 

In terms of real estate, according to the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the national real estate development investment reached 11655.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of January September. In terms of real estate development prosperity index, the real estate development prosperity index in October was 100.5, 0.08 points higher than that in August.

 

Overall, China’s auto market and home appliance market have improved significantly, and the real estate market has also continued to perform well. Moreover, at a recent meeting of the Ministry of Commerce, it was emphasized that next year will be the first year of the “14th five year plan”, so as to stabilize and expand automobile consumption and boost household appliances and furniture consumption. With policy support from the automobile industry and home appliance industry, it is expected that the performance will continue to improve, and copper demand will continue to be boosted.

 

Low inventory

 

In Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper stocks have fallen to 96766 tons below 100000 tons since September, the lowest level since December 2014. Copper prices were supported by lower copper inventories in LME warehouses, which have fallen more than 15% to 153, 175 tons since mid October. As of November 27, the copper inventory was 150775 tons, with a daily decrease of 1250 tons.

 

In view of the above situation, the macro level continued to improve and the fundamentals performed well, and this year’s Spring Festival holiday was late, and enterprises started work for a long time. Entering the fourth quarter, the automobile has ushered in the peak consumption season. Copper analysts believe that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data of business club, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of this month, while it showed a straight upward trend in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 6737 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price was over 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on the 8th and 9th, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, the price rose by 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. From November 19, all propylene prices rose again, and kept about 5 The upward speed of 0-100 yuan / ton for ten consecutive days has been about 800 yuan / ton, and the increase has reached 12.27% from 18th to 28th. The price has been stable since the end of the month. At present, the market transaction is between 7550 yuan / ton and 7850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7650 yuan / ton and 7700 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good.

 

On the upstream side, the crude oil price has risen in recent years, with slight fluctuation, which has a limited impact on propylene.

 

PP began to rise continuously in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 11.25%. The futures market is also relatively ideal, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

 

This month, the price of acrylic acid gradually rebounded after the steep decline in the first ten days, with a monthly decline of 9.55% and a monthly amplitude of 30.25%, which has a limited impact on the favorable effects of propylene.

 

Propylene oxide also rose after a significant decline in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly increase of 0.56% and a monthly amplitude of 32.19%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

 

Epichlorohydrin continued to rise in this month and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 20.99% and a monthly amplitude of 22.53%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

 

Isopropanol rose significantly in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 33.76% and a monthly amplitude of 42.19%, which had a significant positive effect on propylene.

 

This month, the domestic n-butanol price rose steadily and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 38.23% and a monthly amplitude of 38.93%, which had a significant positive impact on the propylene market.

 

Octanol also showed a steady upward trend this month, with a monthly increase of 27.23%, which also had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

The phenol Market in East China rose sharply in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 21.05% and a monthly amplitude of 25.23%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

 

The acetone market in East China also rose sharply in the middle of this month, with a monthly increase of 39.48%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have less inventory, the crude oil price is up and down, the downstream market is better, and the increase is more obvious, but the market started to stabilize at the end of the month, and the upward pressure in the later stage is greater, so it is expected that the propylene price will stabilize temporarily in the near future.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise sharply in November. As of the 27th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7450 yuan / ton, which was 18.25% higher than that of 6300 yuan / ton on the first day, and 18.25% higher than that of 6300 yuan / ton on the first day. The spot supply on the spot was slightly tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise sharply.

 

In November, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market improved, the downstream demand increased recently, the price of o-benzene rose sharply, the market of plasticizer improved, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the price trend of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started operation at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was less than 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was tight, and the dealers were not willing to ship at a low price. The price of phthalic anhydride in the field rose sharply. The market of downstream plasticizer industry went up, the actual transaction increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride went up. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose sharply, with limited high-end transactions. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 7400-7600 yuan / ton, while that of naphthalene process was 7000-7200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 7400-7500 yuan / T, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride field was still in existence. Recently, the transaction volume of phthalic anhydride market decreased slightly, and the driving force of continuous increase was insufficient.

 

In November, the domestic price of o-benzene was very high. At the end of the month, the domestic price of o-benzene was 5380 yuan / T, which was 22.27% higher than the price of 4400 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The sharp rise of domestic o-benzene price is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area has risen sharply. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual list is discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants have low prices However, the price of o-benzene rose sharply and the price of raw materials went up, which benefited the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

The DOP market price of phthalic anhydride downstream rose sharply in November. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 9866.67 yuan / ton as of the 27th day, which was 32.44% higher than that of 7450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field rose sharply. The DOP unit operated stably, the spot supply was normal, and the DOP market price skyrocketed. The market of plasticizer industry rose, with DOP market quotation of 9900-10400 yuan / ton. The transaction of plasticizer in the market was general, and the downstream market was significantly higher. The price of domestic phthalic anhydride was greatly increased.

 

On the whole, crude oil prices have risen recently. In addition, winter is the peak sales season for the plasticizer industry, and the prices of plasticizer products have increased significantly. The phthalic anhydride market is supported by favorable conditions, and the price continues to rise.

 

In the future, the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend is rising, but the plasticizer transaction market continues to rise, the driving force is insufficient, and the resistance of plasticizer price rising increases. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will fall back to a high level in December.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL