According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 25, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 22666 yuan / ton, down 6333 yuan / ton compared with the price of the previous day (24 days), with a daily drop of 21.84%; compared with the price of the beginning of the month (33333 yuan / ton on December 1), the average quoted price was down 10677 yuan / ton, with a drop of 32%.

 

Demand weakened, silicone DMC market continued to fall in December

 

In December, the trend of organosilicon DMC’s soaring has eased. The firm offer for nearly two months has made the downstream industry strongly resist high prices. The wait-and-see mood of the downstream industry has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has also declined. Therefore, on the 2nd of the first month, the leading manufacturers of Shandong organosilicon DMC took the lead in reducing the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC by 2000 yuan / ton. As of the 13th, the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC has declined The reference is 32000-33000 yuan / ton. In the following week, some silicone factories lowered their DMC ex factory quotation twice, with a reduction range of 1000-5500 yuan / ton within one week. As of the 21st, the market mainstream quotation was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton. After the decline of silicone DMC, there was no large-scale replenishment in the lower reaches, and most of them were still waiting to fall.

 

On the 25th, individual manufacturers of silicone DMC in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC to 22000 yuan / ton, down by 5000 yuan / ton. The rest of the factories also began to reduce the profit and shipment, and gradually reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For a time, “the market dropped a lot”, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC was around 22000-23000 yuan / ton. As of December 25, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 22666 yuan / ton, down 6333 yuan / ton compared with the price of the previous day (December 24), with a daily drop of 21.84%; compared with the price of the beginning of the month (December 1, reference price of 33333 yuan / ton), the average quoted price was down 10677 yuan / ton, with a drop of 32%.

 

After the price drops to a relatively low level, the market will maintain stability

 

At present, the domestic market of silicone DMC has fallen sharply. After a few days, it has fallen to a relatively low space, and new downstream orders have been followed up. Therefore, the silicone DMC Data Engineer of business society thinks that the market of silicone DMC will continue to fall in the short term, and the space is limited, and most of them will maintain stable operation.

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Price trend:

 

All kinds of resistance in 2020 did not stop the rapid development of domestic rubber and plastic industry. According to the big data list of business agency, most of the plastic products developed well this year. Among many brother products, this year’s PA6 is not so obvious. As of December 23, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises of business cooperatives to Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 13100 yuan / ton, which was 3.42% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the year. It was hard to return to the price level at the beginning of the year.

 

Factor analysis:

 

In fact, at the beginning of 2020, the domestic spot price of PA6 is on a good start, and caprolactam bottoms out and recovers after a big drop in upstream. In addition, due to the lack of supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the price rise of caprolactam brand boosted the confidence in the market and started the rising mode. The rise of raw materials led PA6 manufacturers to generally increase their quotations. The market was preparing goods before the festival, and the demand for PA6 also increased to a certain extent. Due to the impact of the epidemic, with the advent of the extended version of the Spring Festival, PA6 production and sales nearly stagnated. In February, the resumption of relevant work was slow, the inventory of slicing enterprises could not be digested, and logistics transportation encountered resistance. Multiple factors affected market confidence, and the center of quotation fell rapidly, with a decline of 21.51% from the end of February to the beginning of April. Businessmen are pessimistic and slow in trading.

 

After three months of decline, the market began to pick up in early May. The main advantage of the market is still from the cost side, caprolactam supply into tight, prices rose sharply, the whole month in May rose as high as 16.21%. With the easing of the epidemic situation, the crude oil chemical market rebounded, and the pure benzene market was pushed up by the favorable crude oil and external market. The mentality improvement of downstream buyers of PA6 is limited. Under the support of strong cost, some polymerization plants and businesses still have low-cost single operation, and the spot price may still be paying for the expansion of PA6 production in 2019.

 

The continuous lack of demand led to the gradual increase of PA6 inventory. In July, domestic PA6 inventory was running at a high level, and there was a risk of continuous accumulation. At the same time, the raw material market fell. Although crude oil had strong support for pure benzene in the early stage and caprolactam was supported at the bottom of the market, the supply was sufficient, and the demand of polymerization plant decreased, and the overall market was weak. Affected by multiple negative effects of PA6 spot price continued to “drift green”, businesses actively shipping, so that the margin offer reduced positions. Business bearish after the market, the market mentality even affected the traditional peak season.

 

Delayed peak season

 

In September, the trend of PA6 market continued to be weak. In terms of textile, the transaction of high-speed spinning chips was particularly slow, and the situation that downstream factories were still stocked up was common in conventional spinning. Shipping resistance as always, only the overall operating rate of nylon filament increased, good PA6 price. With the consumption of inventory, PA6 spot price guidance began to appear in October. The purchase and sales of home appliance enterprises and automobile enterprises increased significantly, and the operating rate of nylon textile enterprises continued to be high. After a year’s silence, the demand side finally made efforts, and the inventory fell rapidly, and the spot price was boosted. With the recovery growth of the domestic market, the price of PA6 has risen as high as 25.56%. It’s like a late and extended season. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam was tight at the end of the year, and the upstream and downstream were in good together, and the spot price of PA6 returned to the level at the beginning of the year.

 

Year end comments:

 

Business agency analysts believe: in 2020, domestic PA6 market will fall more and rise less, but the price will recover. The lack of long-term demand in the domestic market leads to the lack of power for PA6 to rise. Throughout the year, the mismatch between last year’s capacity increase and demand growth still has a far-reaching impact on this year. Most of the positive guidance comes from the petrochemical industry chain and from the direct upstream caprolactam. Although the fourth quarter demand side volume, but the current market is difficult to say balanced and healthy. Perhaps it will take time for PA6 industry chain to adjust its allocation.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 11 was 4983 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 0.66% month on month and 6.85% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Phosphoric acid market is running smoothly this week. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus market has been stable, and the phosphoric acid market has been stable. In addition, the demand side has not been guided by good news. The industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. A small number of enterprises have reduced their quotations slightly, and most of them have sold at a stable price, and the price has not changed for the time being. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of December 18, the price quoted in Sichuan was 4850-5300 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 4900 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 4600 yuan / ton.

 

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% December 18 5300-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85% Dec 18 4800-4850

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

The price of yellow phosphorus market is stable this week, and the driving situation is basically normal. At present, the market sales situation is fair, the downstream goods taking situation has improved, the transaction is more active than before, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to stabilize. So far, the market quotation in Yunnan is about 15500-15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 15200-15300 yuan / ton. The price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 15400-15600 yuan / ton.

 

At present, the overall market situation of phosphate ore is weak and stable, the downstream demand is weak, and there are not many new orders to purchase, so the support for phosphate ore is limited. The phosphate rock industry mainly focuses on stabilizing the price a year ago. Therefore, the phosphate ore analysts of the business club believe that the recent adjustment of the phosphate ore market is limited, and the quotation is not expected to be lowered, and the overall stable operation is mainly maintained.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society, the price of raw materials is relatively stable, and the phosphoric acid market is stable accordingly. In addition, there is no good news guidance on the demand side, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. A few enterprises have slightly reduced their quotations, and it is expected that the stable market will continue in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has remained stable after a slight drop in the past eight days, rising to 7979 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; this Monday’s high price was 7999 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.25%; from last Tuesday, it was at the 8-day low price of 7966 yuan / ton, with an 8-day amplitude of 0.42%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / T from the 3rd to 8th, up by 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was fully stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the increase, and some enterprises’ prices fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline twice, and on the 14th, it had declined 200-250 yuan / T. on the 15th, the price was mainly stable, and on the 15th, the price was mainly stable Don’t go up. Today’s price is up about 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 7900 yuan / ton and 8150 yuan / ton. The mainstream price is about 7950 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is not much, the pressure is not big, the shipment is general.

 

On December 18, crude oil prices still rose slightly, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, the spot price of PP stabilized after falling, with a decrease of 2.09% on the 8th, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

 

In the past eight days, the market of acrylic acid stabilized after rising, with an increase of 0.68% on the eighth day, with limited impact on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, the market of propylene oxide decreased slightly and then recovered, with an increase of 2.89% on the eighth day and an amplitude of 5.12% on the eighth day, which had a positive impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin fluctuated up and down in recent eight days, with an increase of 0.27% on the eighth day and an amplitude of 3.37% on the eighth day, which had little impact on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, the domestic price of n-butanol has been rising all the way, with a rise of 9.67% on the eighth day, which has a more obvious effect on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, the market of octanol also went up all the way, with an increase of 16.34% on the eighth day, which also had a greater positive effect on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, isopropanol market has been falling all the way, with a 8.70% drop on the eighth day, which has a certain negative impact on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, phenol in East China continued to decline, with a decline of 4.97%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

 

In recent eight days, East China acetone went down all the way, with a drop of 11.38% on the eighth day, which had a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: Generally speaking, there is not much propylene in stock, the crude oil price has risen slightly, and the downstream market is slightly cold, with both ups and downs. It is expected that the propylene price may fluctuate and rise slightly due to the impact of inventory in the near future.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price remained stable this week, with an average price of 1683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1683.33 yuan / ton at the weekend.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the overall performance of sodium metabisulfite market was stable, which was suppressed by the continuous fall of raw material cost. In December, enterprises successively reduced the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1550-1750 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated in 1600-1700 yuan / ton. The production of enterprises is stable, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

 

In December, the price of domestic soda ash continued to decline. As of December 18, the price of soda ash fell by 11.17%, and the price of sulfur rose by 2.36%. Overall, the raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite still showed a downward trend, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to bear pressure in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that the cost continues to fall, downstream trade main body wait-and-see attitude is strong, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to fall under pressure in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL