1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. Now the average price of Shandong market is 485 yuan / ton, which is 1.02% lower than the average price of 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 23.32% lower than the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on December 30 was 69.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.27% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.17% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of caustic soda is not supported by favorable factors. The overall caustic soda market is weak, the conversation atmosphere is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow consolidation of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 1400-1500 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The lower reaches purchase more on demand, the market atmosphere is not good, and the transaction follow-up of the lower reaches is weak.

Demand: downstream. Affected by the severe pollution weather warning in the north, alumina enterprises reduced production more. The new year’s Day holiday is approaching, and the purchase intention of papermaking, printing and dyeing is low. The downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. As of last Thursday, the weighted average operating load of sample enterprises in major regions of China was 80.11%, down 1.34 percentage points from last week. The overall start-up of caustic soda continued at a high level.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise, 3 kinds of commodities that fall, and 2 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities falling were: PVC (- 6.74%), light soda (- 5.71%), hydrochloric acid (- 1.64%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2020, the national caustic soda output was 3.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. From January to November, the cumulative national caustic soda output was 32.858 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable with little change in the cost side. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 15726.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.01% compared with the average price of 16996.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 8.06% compared with the average price of 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and an increase of 39.96% compared with the valley price of 11230 yuan / ton at the end of the year (March 24).

Monthly rise and fall in 2020

Future view basis

1. The consumption of aluminum ingots is expected to weaken in the early stage of the Spring Festival. Affected by the shutdown factors in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption of aluminum ingots may have a slight drop. At present, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is hovering on the 600000 ton line, with a slight rebound trend.

2. In terms of investment, the total position of Hulai shows a downward trend, the willingness of bulls to stop profits is strengthened, and some non industrial funds are withdrawn towards the end of the year.

3. The domestic new production capacity is not much. At present, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively high, the price of internal and external market is upside down, and the demand for imported aluminum ingots is strong.

Future conclusions

The overall low inventory and domestic new production capacity is not much, which benefits the aluminum price; raw material side, alumina price is good, the prebaked anode market is stable as a whole, the cost side benefits the aluminum ingot price to a certain extent, based on the current profit is fair, the cost side impact factor is small; in the later stage, it is expected that the impact of limiting production, electricity and gas will expand, the downstream construction will gradually decline, and the downstream consumption will weaken near the end of the year, which is bad for aluminum Price. It is expected that the recent aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust, and the consolidation probability is high.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to business news agency data, on December 30, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5477.67 yuan / kg, up 16.18% from the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); the average price of silver in the morning market was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 25.17% from the beginning of the year (01.01); the average price of silver in the morning market was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 86.15% from the trough of the year (3.19); the peak value of silver in the year (8.11) The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 18.35%.

On December 30, the spot price of gold was 391.30 yuan / g, an increase of 4.99% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (12.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 14.23%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, an increase of 17.19%; the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g, a decrease of 12.66%.

In December, the price of precious metals returned to the rising trend, mainly due to:

The development trend of overseas epidemic in winter has not been significantly curbed, especially the discovery of new virus strains, coupled with the poor data of the number of confirmed cases, resulting in the expected benefits of the vaccine greatly reduced;

On the policy side, the news that the United States signed a US bail-out bill to legislate a US $2.3 trillion plan, combined with the continued depreciation of the US dollar, led to a surge in the demand for gold in terms of anti inflation and hedging.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this month. The average price of isopropanol in China was 10366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and 7966.67 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price was reduced by 23.15% in this month.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices fell this month. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on December 22, while that in Europe was basically stable. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 7600-8000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 7900-8000 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 7900 yuan / ton. Raw material acetone continued to decline, cost side down pressure isopropanol downstream market mentality, downstream orders cautious, buying enthusiasm is limited. In recent days, the domestic isopropanol market has been weak and the atmosphere on the floor is empty.

In terms of raw material acetone, the negotiation focus of acetone market fell sharply this month. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic price of acetone was 9450 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the average price was 7550 yuan / ton as of the 25th of this month. The price of acetone decreased by 20.11%. In addition, the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly after the closing 25 days of negotiation, although the price of acetone in the market is expected to drop significantly. At present, the mainstream market quotation on the 25th is 7550-7800 yuan / ton.

As for raw material propylene, as of December 25, the market price of propylene in Shandong generally declined. The market turnover is between 7800-8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7800-7850 yuan / ton. The current inventory is general, the price of crude oil fluctuates mainly, and the downstream market is slightly cold, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think that: the raw material acetone has been greatly reduced, and the cost side has been declining, which has depressed the mentality of the downstream market of isopropanol; the price reduction of raw material propylene is limited, and the propene method isopropanol is not willing to follow. Under the market tug of war, the decline of isopropanol is expected to be limited.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 28, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7833.33 yuan / ton. The overall price trend of domestic DMF market was stable, with just need purchasing as the main part, general negotiation atmosphere, contract orders as the main part, and limited number of new orders.

The market price of DMF is stable, the focus of negotiation is large and small, the downstream demand is general, the purchase is just needed, the transaction atmosphere is cautious, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, the shipment is normal, most of them are contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the equipment of various manufacturers is running stably, some manufacturers continue to reduce the price, as of December 28, the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton.

Due to the influence of winter weather, the freight price increases, the profit margin is limited, the shipment is smooth, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the short-term consolidation is mainly narrow.

On December 27, the chemical industry index was 855 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.85% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.98% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe: in the short term, the focus of the DMF market is stable. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business DMF analysts. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.)