According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market showed a gradual downward trend in March, and the spot prices of various brands were reduced. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8983.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 37.15% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market in March high callback. At the beginning of this month, it took advantage of the early international crude oil price rise, and was in the high shock operation for many years. Then, with the good cost side, the rise was blocked, and this month’s decline was concentrated between the 18th and the 26th. Now the price of propylene is stable, and some units are still under maintenance. In general, overseas production has recovered slightly, domestic inventory is low, current crude oil price is volatile, and downstream operation rate is acceptable, but the market is mostly cold, and propylene is still high in the near future. It is expected that the market will be stabilized due to the influence of crude oil.

March propylene market high down, PP cost side support general. At the beginning of this month, affected by the rapid resumption of work in China, the demand on the site expanded rapidly. According to reports, the overall average operating rate of domestic polypropylene plants was about 93% in the first quarter, which was at a historical high. Overseas market supply is still tight, there is a certain growth in export orders this month. However, in the latter half of the year, Dongming Petrochemical added 200000 tons / year of production capacity, plus 850000 tons / year of new production capacity in the first two months, the rapidly expanding supply is under pressure from domestic propylene prices. Downstream factories gradually conflict with high price orders, and they are not willing to accept the goods. Floor trading is not smooth, there is a price reduction operation at the end of the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 1, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 9216.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 14.92% compared with the same period last year. In March, fiber PP production was stable, accounting for about 13% of the total. The high price of goods affects the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods. In addition, there are more and more spunbonded non-woven fabric manufacturers entering the market. At present, the shipping resistance of traders is increasing, and the profit margin is generally expanded.

Melt blown materials, the market in early March to undertake raw materials rose and melt blown PP outside the double boost market and opened higher, after the demand did not improve and the whole month stagflation, spot price shock down. As of April 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 11000 yuan / ton. Basically back to the level before the rise. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable. The new situation in some areas of Yunnan has not effectively stimulated the demand for medical protective equipment, and the domestic demand for epidemic prevention materials has been fixed at a stable level. The overseas epidemic situation is still unclear, and many countries have reported a number of new coronal variant strains, so it is inevitable that the compulsory mask policy will be implemented for a long time. However, in March, the market performance of meltblown materials in the outer market was also average, and even jumeilai and other high melt fiber products were down in the first ten days. On the whole, the profit of melt blown fabric manufacturing market is not ideal, the excess capacity has been eliminated, and the melt blown PP market has entered a stable period.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: March domestic PP spot market trend fell mainly. The upstream propylene price recovered, but it is still high, and the support for PP cost side is acceptable. Recently, the market supply has expanded, the industry competition has intensified, and the high price spot trading is not good. In addition, the lack of positive feedback of demand under the high opening rate led to the unsatisfactory trend of PP this month. Now has entered the maintenance season, polymerization plant shipments are expected to shrink, it is expected that PP market trend or will be affected by the supply side and stop rising.

Commodity index: on March 30, the commodity index of polyacrylamide was 93.38, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.83% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 12.66% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data show that the ten days after the Spring Festival holiday in 2021 is the period of the highest market price up to now; affected by the sharp rise in the cost of acrylonitrile, the market price of polyacrylamide once rose by about 10%, and then gradually weakened. By the last week of March, the accumulated price reduction of two times was 300 yuan / ton, and this month it was reported to be 15950 yuan / ton. Since the 19th of this month, all water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have stopped production for rectification according to the local environmental protection policy. Up to now, it has been nearly half a month. The inventory is fair and the supply of goods is sufficient. The current market is mainly stable. From March to 31, domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) polyacrylamide cation quoted 14583.33 yuan / ton on the first day, which went up to 15316 yuan / ton on the 13th in a row, and then decreased slightly, closing at 15166.67 yuan / ton on the 31st daily, with a monthly increase of 4%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, especially since the Spring Festival. The domestic price has reached the highest point in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 was 12100 yuan / ton, and the daily quotation on March 10 was 16500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4500 yuan / ton, with a range of 36%; however, due to the recent impact of the upstream price reduction, the price of 1 On the 5th, the price was reduced by 250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. On the 26th, Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the price was reduced by about 100 yuan / ton. In March, the domestic mainstream market price was closed at 15900-15950 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the maintenance of domestic manufacturers has been delayed, and Haijiang’s products have been sold abroad, so the supply has increased, and the downstream has resistance to high prices, so the possibility of price rise is not great; main devices: Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a 130000 ton production line from March 22 to 29; Shandong Haijiang’s acrylonitrile products have gradually begun to be sold abroad, and about 90% of the units have started operation at present.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the price was about 3983 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 10%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.

Downstream demand: from the Spring Festival holiday to the middle of March, the cost of polyacrylamide, as a downstream product, has increased significantly due to the impact of the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices. The water treatment engineering manufacturers are stopping production for rectification, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. The price of polyacrylamide is not strong. Due to the sufficient supply, the current price has dropped, and the price has returned in the middle of this month The price dropped by about 500 yuan / ton, and then dropped by another 100 yuan / ton in the last ten days. Moreover, some enterprises with weak strength are unable to support due to strong environmental inspection, strict requirements and high technical threshold.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, affected by the overall macroeconomic environment, the market of bulk raw materials is greatly affected by inflation and demand. In particular, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The operation threshold is constantly raised; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, and the supply side can not avoid being affected. To sum up, combined with the background of inflation, the subsequent shutdown of enterprises under environmental protection inspection may lead to the gradual tension of supply, and the price is expected to rise. However, in the case of sufficient inventory, the price of polyacrylamide is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, the production can not keep up, and perhaps the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. At present, there are some small factories in Henan Province which are not supported enough. It is suggested that the relevant manufacturers should start from the overall situation, improve the production technology level as soon as possible, and meet the requirements of environmental protection, which is the long-term plan for the survival and development of enterprises.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price remained stable recently, and the average ex factory price of the domestic spandex market was stable at 67600 yuan / ton, up 114.60% year on year. The industry started at a high level of 90%, the supply of goods became more stable, some details were slightly tight, and the downstream terminal market was cautious in accepting orders. The actual transaction needs to be discussed in detail.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

Shandong: 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Jiangsu Province: 82000-85000 73000-75000 63000-65000

The raw material PTMEG market is stable for the time being, and the BDO drop rate of the cost side is limited, which is still high on the whole. At present, the 1800 molecular weight supply is around 40000 yuan / T offered by the mainstream factories, and 35000-42000 yuan / T is referred for the real order negotiation. About 80% of the PTMEG industry started operation and maintained stable operation. In April, there will be more unit maintenance, including 135000 tons in Jiaxing Xiaoxing, 60000 tons in Hangzhou Sanlong and 50000 tons in Xinjiang Meike, 60000 tons in Panjin Changchun, and 40000 tons in Yizheng Dalian. The pure MDI market continued to decline. Most traders accompanied the shipment, and the market mainstream quotation continued to decline. At present, the market negotiation is at 23000-23500 yuan / ton, which is 1500-2000 yuan / ton lower than that of last week. The industry started at 720%, which is lower than that of last week.

Affected by the high consolidation of raw material market, the downstream terminal market demand is still cautious. However, in recent days, in the traditional market of China Textile City, polyester filament is used as the main raw material, and spandex is used as the main raw material. The transaction of summer women’s upper elastic fabric and spring and summer women’s trousers with spandex elastic fabric is partially smooth. The hanging sample of new elastic fabric in the traditional market is increased, and the listed varieties are increased. Among them, a number of polyester and ammonia elastic fabrics mainly made of women’s trousers have been on sale, and their transactions have shown a rising trend in recent days. The overall market trend is volatile and upward. DTY low elastic yarn 150D is a new positioning style local elastic cloth made of partial spandex yarn and 150D (DTY + POY) composite yarn inlaid with colorful silk. It is favored by purchasers of garment factories in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Shanghai.

Business analysts believe that the upstream cost side of the general role of support, downstream terminal market just need to buy, short-term stability of the spandex market.

The LPG market in Shandong began to decline continuously in mid March. After entering this week (3.21-3.25), it was not easy to look forward to the rising market, but it was blocked again. The rebound did not continue. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 3800.00 yuan / ton on March 21 and 3843.33 yuan / ton on March 25, with an increase of 1.14% this week and 3.41% compared with March 1.

As of March 25, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Air transportation in North China: 3920-3720 tons

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: RMB 3810-3950 / T

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 4100-4200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: RMB 3750-3800 / T

At the beginning of the week, the rise of international crude oil brought some support to the market. Under the mentality of buying up downstream, the LPG civil market entered the market actively, the market transaction atmosphere was good, and the manufacturer’s quotation continued to push up. However, the international crude oil plummeted on March 24, which affected the market mentality. The trading atmosphere of the market was light again. After replenishment, the downstream companies withdrew from the market one after another, with a cautious mentality. Manufacturers shipping blocked, part of the inventory there is a certain pressure, more profit priority shipping, prices have declined. At present, the market supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the current weather temperature is gradually increasing, and the demand is decreasing. In the international market, near the end of the month, Saudi Aramco’s CP price is about to come out, but the CP is expected to fall in April, bringing some bad news to the market.

In the past seven days, the LPG futures market has been volatile and low, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On March 25, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2105 was 2770, the highest price was 3888, the lowest price was 3760, the closing price was 3867, the former settlement price was 3827, the settlement price was 3842, up 40, or 1.05%, the trading volume was 74076, the position was 30628, and the daily increase was – 589. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Overall, the market demand has improved this week, and the overall focus of Shandong civil gas market has moved up. However, the international crude oil market fluctuates frequently and has a large range, which brings limited benefits to the LPG market. Moreover, the expected decline of CP price in April brings bad news to the market. After the completion of downstream replenishment, the market withdraws from the market to wait and see, and obviously lacks confidence in the future market. As the weather continues to heat up, market demand is expected to decline. At present, due to many negative factors in the market, Shandong civil gas market is expected to be easy to fall but difficult to rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market of caprolactam has been revised back in the near future, and individual spot prices have been greatly reduced. As of March 26, the average price of caprolactam sample enterprises was 13333.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 43.88%.

quotations analysis

In the first half of the month, the price of caprolactam was at a high level in China, and the market began to recover in the middle of March. Caprolactam fell steadily this week, and the market was weak as a whole. On the upstream side, the far end cost crude oil fell due to the influence of the US dollar index, but the Suez Canal congestion crisis continued, and the current crude oil market was in a wide range of shocks. Due to the increase of production demand in the downstream of direct upstream pure benzene in the near future, the on-site debarking operation can be carried out. However, affected by the weakening of crude oil, the market has resistance and weak consolidation. The demand for caprolactam decreased and the supply of caprolactam shifted from tight to abundant.

Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe: caprolactam upstream benzene market weak consolidation, caprolactam cost side support general. On the supply side, the domestic caprolactam supply increased, and the supply side showed pressure. The downstream PA6 products were reduced, and the kinetic energy of the demand side was weakened. At present, the domestic caprolactam bad lead market, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to adjust downward.