The sharp drop in crude oil has intensified the market’s wait-and-see sentiment, and the acetone market is once again under pressure to decline. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 5200-5250 yuan/ton since June 24th, with a daily decline of nearly 100 yuan/ton.
From a cost perspective, geopolitical conflicts have eased, crude oil prices have plummeted, raw material pure benzene has weakened, traders have actively reduced their warehouses and shipments, and offers have increased. Main enterprises have lowered their listing prices, resulting in a negative cost outlook; The acetone factory maintains stable listing and quotation. Faced with the further decline of petrochemical industry chain products and downstream demand, the sentiment of entering the market for replenishment has decreased, and the actual transaction volume is limited.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on June 24th are as follows:
Regional/June 24th quotation /Daily increase and decrease
East China region / 5200-5250./ -（50-100）
Shandong region / 5450./ -50
Yanshan region / 5450./ -50
South China region / 5350./ -100

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, in the short term, raw materials have a significant impact on the industrial chain, and the market center of gravity is once again deadlocked and declining. After two days of decline, the market may maintain stable operation, and it is expected that the East China market will be between 5200-5250 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after a slight rebound in recent times, lithium carbonate has returned to a weak trend. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate Shengyi Society was 59966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% from 60200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 42% from 103400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The benchmark price for domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading is 58233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19% from 58933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 41% from 99000 yuan/ton in the same period last year. 15%.
Overseas ore production capacity clearance combined with capacity ramp up
Overseas mines have been dragged down by the decline in lithium carbonate prices, narrowing their profit margins. On the one hand, high cost minerals have entered the stage of clearing production capacity, and on the other hand, the production capacity of low-cost minerals has climbed and new production capacity has increased, leading to a downward shift in the cost support for imported lithium carbonate.
Domestic supply continues to increase
Most domestic manufacturers maintain stable production plans and continue to release production capacity. Looking at different regions, production in Qinghai remains stable, while the utilization rate of production capacity in Jiangxi mining areas has slightly increased. It is expected that overall production will increase slightly.
Demand side inventory reduction trend
The mid year momentum of domestic power terminals, driven by the growth of exports to the European Union and Southeast Asia, will lead to a stable increase in demand for power terminals. With the arrival of the off-season in July, there is an expectation of a decrease in demand for power terminals. Against the backdrop of the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the demand for overdrafts in the “531″ rush to install energy storage cells, the trend of production reduction is relatively clear.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that with a large increase in supply and a significant contraction in demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate weakly, and specific changes in market conditions still need to be monitored.

In late June, the domestic ABS market still maintained an upward trend, and the spot prices of some grades still had a decent increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 23, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.35% compared to early June.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Recently, the load of the domestic ABS industry has been flat, with the overall load level maintaining at 64% in the middle. The average weekly output remains unchanged at around 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. Meanwhile, as the production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical approaches, the industry’s supply side support is being somewhat suppressed. However, companies such as Haijiang Chemical continue to carry out maintenance tasks, and there is a trend of tightening supply in some areas. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In late June, the upstream three materials of ABS showed mixed trends, but the amplitude was relatively narrow, which limited the support for ABS cost side changes. In terms of acrylonitrile, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation last week, with an increase in supply. Supported by the increase in raw material costs, the spot market price of acrylonitrile remained basically stable. In the short term, there is no pressure on factory inventory, but there is a lack of growth space in demand, and there is a risk of a decline in acrylonitrile prices in the future.
Butadiene has been fluctuating upwards recently. Crude oil prices have risen, and the overall macro situation is improving. The downstream synthetic rubber market is performing well, and the spot price of butadiene has risen under the dual benefits. The ex factory prices of mainstream domestic production enterprises have generally increased. However, the overall intention of downstream procurement is biased towards rigid demand, and the lack of demand support limits the increase. The market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and it is expected that the short-term trend will mainly fluctuate within a certain range.
Styrene has also received remote positive news from the strengthening of international oil prices. However, the production of pure benzene has rebounded, and the supply is relatively wide. Coupled with the restart of some styrene plants, the output and capacity utilization have both increased month on month, indicating loose supply. In addition, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene. It is expected that styrene will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.
In terms of demand: Recently, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal sector has generally remained flat. The current market is gradually entering the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises are maintaining a strong demand for supplementary orders. However, the recent geopolitical deterioration has had a stronger impact, and concerns have driven up international crude oil prices, with ABS supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, which had a dual impact on the sentiment of industry players in the market, driving some short positions to be replenished and slightly improving the flow rate of goods supply. However, the inventory level within the venue is still relatively high, and the supply continues to be loose, leaving ample room for turnover within the venue. Overall, the demand side has limited support and improvement for the ABS market.

Future forecast
In early June, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose. The prices of the three upstream materials have fluctuated, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants has basically remained flat, with a narrow increase in demand. Business analysts believe that ABS has been mainly affected by remote raw materials and market concerns recently, which has stimulated some orders to enter the market. However, the strong supply and weak demand pattern in the industry has long dragged down spot prices, coupled with the off-season for consumption. It is expected that the ABS market may return to consolidation in the short term.

Analysis: This week (6.16-20), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.98%. The main reason is the prominent supply pressure and excessive market inventory. The maintenance equipment is partially operational, and the supply side is loose. Coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion capacity, the supply has significantly increased, and the increase in ammonia volume has dragged down the ammonia price. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, the prices of manufacturers have loosened, but as the weekend approaches, the mentality of enterprises to raise prices is gradually strengthening. Some large factories have made slight price increases, but the magnitude is very limited. A large factory in Shandong only increased by 20 yuan/ton. As of Friday, mainstream large factories in Shandong have generally lowered their prices by around 50 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2400 yuan/ton.
Prediction: In the near future, the market has entered a low season, with agricultural and industrial demand mainly following suit. The supply is sufficient, but the pressure on supply may partially ease in the later period. On the one hand, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened in the main production areas of the north, there is an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes. From the demand side perspective, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is limited room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may still perform weakly next week, with prices mainly hovering at low levels.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has been declining since June, with an average price of 16333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15933 yuan/ton on June 19th, a decrease of 2.45% during the cycle. In June, the market was mainly dominated by supply and demand. Starting from the beginning of the month, major factories in Shanghai completed maintenance and began to restart. Fujian Wanhua began maintenance on the 5th. The coexistence of market maintenance and restart, relatively sufficient supply of goods, coupled with weak performance on the demand side, has led to a gradual decline in the aggregated MDI market due to strong supply and weak demand. Starting from mid June, large factories in the north have reduced their operations, showing a clear willingness to raise prices. The market has stopped falling and pushed up, but due to demand constraints, the increase is limited.
On the supply side, BASF and Huntsman in Shanghai have completed maintenance and restarted production. Fujian Wanhua’s 800000 tons/year MDI unit and 360000 tons/year TDI unit were shut down for maintenance on June 5th, lasting approximately 45 days. The MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea (200000 tons/year) will be shut down for maintenance at the end of May, with a duration of approximately one month.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is constrained by demand and faces significant resistance to further growth. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate narrowly in the short term and closely monitor the progress of enterprise maintenance and changes in market supply and demand.