According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on February 2 was 7025 yuan/ton, and on February 5, the average price was 6918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on February 2nd was 9066 yuan/ton, and on February 5th it was 8916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on February 2nd was 7450 yuan/ton, and on February 5th it was 7392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%.
Recently, various varieties of polyethylene have shown an overall trend of oscillation and weakness.
Cost side: Crude oil rebounded slightly on February 3rd and 4th, but it did not change the market’s expectation of a weakening cost side, resulting in limited support for the cost side.
Supply side: The restart of facilities such as Sinochem and Maoming, coupled with the commissioning of Yulong LDPE/EVA facilities, has further increased market supply. There is an expectation of an increase in supply side, which has suppressed prices.
On the demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are gradually shutting down, and terminal demand has entered a seasonal off-season, with light trading and difficulty in supporting sustained price increases.
In the short term, the polyethylene market will continue to be dominated by a weak supply-demand pattern, and prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly.

Isobutyraldehyde prices fluctuate and rise
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 6333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 9.83% compared to the January 1st price of 5766.67 yuan/ton; The price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased from 5750 yuan/ton on January 20th, with a growth rate of 10.14%. The price of propylene fluctuated and rose. In January, the equipment production of isobutyraldehyde enterprises increased to about 85%. Starting from the end of the month, the production of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers slightly decreased, inventory was low, and isobutyraldehyde supply was tight, resulting in a sharp rise in isobutyraldehyde prices.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the price of propylene was 6437.67 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.26% compared to the price of 6421 yuan/ton on January 27th; The price of propylene has significantly increased by 12.59% from 5717.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. There are many maintenance tasks for the propylene plant, and the supply of propylene is temporarily tight, resulting in fluctuating propylene prices. Cost support, the increase in cost of isobutyraldehyde provides significant support.
Isobutyraldehyde manufacturers start production at a high level and fall back
The overall operating rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers is high, and in February, the operating rate of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers slightly decreased to around 83%. The production of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Increased demand for isobutyraldehyde
The price of neopentyl glycol rose in February. On February 5th, Yantai Wanhua quoted 7650-7800 yuan/ton, which was a fluctuating increase compared to the quoted 7250-7400 yuan/ton on January 20th. The price of neopentyl glycol has risen, coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for isobutyraldehyde has increased in the short term, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has fluctuated and risen.
Market Overview and Forecast
The analyst of the isobutyraldehyde industry at Shengyi Society believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has risen significantly, and the support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde costs has increased; In terms of supply and demand, the production of isobutyraldehyde has slightly decreased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde has tightened, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has increased; In terms of demand, the price of neopentyl glycol has increased, coupled with stocking before the Spring Festival, which has led to an increase in demand for isobutyraldehyde and increased support for its rise. In the future, with the significant increase in costs and the tightening of supply and demand for isobutyraldehyde, the support for isobutyraldehyde’s rise is increasing, and it is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly in January
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8017.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.44% compared to the DOP price of 7325.84 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 4th, the DOP price was 7950.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the January 31st DOP price of 8017.50 yuan/ton. In January, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises slightly decreased, with an operating rate of about 63%, and DOP production decreased compared to the previous month; The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have significantly increased, as well as the prices of raw materials and DOP. The cost increase, combined with a decrease in supply, led to a significant increase in the price of plasticizer DOP in January. In February, DOP enterprises saw a slight increase in production, leading to an increase in the supply of plasticizers. In addition, as the pre Spring Festival stocking period approached its end and demand fell, the price of plasticizers decreased in February.
Plasticizer DOP manufacturer’s production slightly decreases
In January, the operating load of DOP manufacturers slightly decreased, and the operating rate dropped from 68% in December to 63%. DOP production decreased, DOP supply decreased, and the upward momentum of DOP still exists. In February, the operating rate of DOP enterprises was around 64%, with an increase in DOP production and sufficient supply of DOP.
The price of raw material isooctanol has significantly increased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7880 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 13.93% compared to the price of 6916.67 yuan/ton on January 1st; On February 4th, the price of isooctanol was 7716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the price of 7880 yuan/ton on January 31st. The equipment maintenance of the isooctanol enterprise has been completed, and the operating load of the isooctanol enterprise unit has been increased to 9.5%. The supply of isooctanol is sufficient; The price of propylene has risen significantly, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol has significantly increased, the cost of plasticizers has risen, and the driving force for DOP increase has increased. In February, the price of isooctanol fell from a high level, and the cost of plasticizers decreased.
The phthalic anhydride market saw a significant increase in January
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 6243.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4.64% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 1, which was 5966.67 yuan/ton; On February 4th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from the price of phthalic anhydride on January 27th, which was 6283.33 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene has risen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. In January, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, while the cost of DOP has increased. The support for the rise in plasticizers has increased. In late January, the price of industrial naphthalene fell and the price of ortho benzene stabilized weakly. The cost of phthalic anhydride decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the support for the rise in plasticizers has weakened.

Rising demand for plasticizers
On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice clarifying that the 13% value-added tax export rebate for plasticized PVC would be cancelled from April 1, 2026, and would be implemented simultaneously with unplasticized PVC and PVC pure powder. Plasticized PVC, also known as soft PVC, relies on plasticizers (such as DOTP, DOP, etc.) to adjust its flexibility, and is widely used in fields such as wires and cables, synthetic leather, films, and hoses. In order to enjoy the final tax rebate dividend, such enterprises will accelerate their order placement before April 1st, and overseas customers will also concentrate on purchasing, which will boost export volume in the short term and drive the phased growth of demand for plasticizers. Pre Spring Festival stocking, downstream orders for plasticizers are supported by certain favorable factors, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol increased significantly in January, and the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly. The support for the cost increase of plasticizer DOP increased significantly, and the price of plasticizer increased significantly. In February, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of supply, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remained weak and stable in January, with a slight decrease in plasticizer production. In February, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises increased, with an increase in plasticizer production and sufficient plasticizer supply; In terms of demand, the tax rebate dividend has driven downstream demand growth, with a phased increase in demand for plasticizers in February and March. As the Spring Festival stocking approaches its end, demand for plasticizers has fallen. In the future, with the decrease in costs and the slowdown in demand growth due to sufficient supply, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate.

1、 Market Overview
As of February 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of this month (6404.33 yuan/ton). Compared to the previous high, it tends to stabilize. This indicates that after experiencing a rapid price surge in January (with Shandong prices reaching 6405 yuan/ton on January 27th), the market’s upward momentum has weakened, and both buyers and sellers have turned cautious and entered a wait-and-see phase.
2、 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
The current market’s “temporary stability” pattern is mainly the result of the balance between supply and demand factors.
1. Supply side:
Continued tight equilibrium state: The core factor supporting the price increase in the early stage was the unexpected tightening of supply, especially the operating rate of PDH (propane dehydrogenation) units fell below 60% at one point. Although the overall utilization rate of propylene production capacity is currently 70.93%, it is still relatively low, and enterprise inventory is controllable. In the short term, spot resources are not abundant.
The market’s focus is on the expectation of “storage restart”. Analysis suggests that if the main PDH units in the north restart as planned, it may alleviate the supply shortage and put pressure on market sentiment. This is one of the main sources of the current market wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Demand side:
As downstream factories gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday, actual demand has slightly weakened. The main downstream performance varies. For example, the price of PP powder remained stable at a high level, while the prices of epichlorohydrin and octanol also experienced varying degrees of decline. The downstream’s willingness to chase after high priced propylene has slowed down, making it difficult to support further significant price increases.
3. Cost side:
At present, the profit of PDH process route is still deeply lost (East China -304 yuan/ton, Shandong -444 yuan/ton). From a cost perspective, this provides strong bottom support for propylene prices, and production companies have limited willingness to continue offering discounts. The previously optimistic macro sentiment and financial push have weakened, and the market has returned to focus on fundamental supply and demand.
3、 Short term outlook:
Overall, it is expected that propylene prices will maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term. The price above 6450 yuan/ton is facing significant pressure, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of downstream demand. If the potential device restart progress on the supply side falls short of expectations, as well as sustained loss costs, it will limit the downward space for prices. The key to the post holiday market trend lies in the game between the actual situation of supply side equipment restart and the demand for downstream enterprises to resume work and stock up after the holiday.

Commodity market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mainstream market for polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China was weak in January. On the 30th, the main market price was around 12960 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it was around 13000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.31%. This month, the raw material acrylonitrile has risen, the acrylic acid market has risen, the fuel market has risen, the cost of polyacrylamide is supported, the main production areas are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, and the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is weak.
Raw material acrylonitrile: In January, the acrylonitrile market first fell and then rose. As of January 30th, the average price of acrylonitrile was 7650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2% from 7500 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; The downstream domestic ABS industry has a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the continuous rise in prices supports acrylonitrile.
Raw material acrylic acid: The price of acrylic acid continued to rise in January. Recently, the cost price of propylene has continued to rise strongly, providing good cost support for the acrylic acid market. Under the support of costs, the quotations from factories and cargo holders are relatively firm, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, resulting in a decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
Liquefied natural gas for production. The domestic liquefied natural gas market prices saw a significant increase in January. As of January 30th, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 3610 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.33% from 3302 yuan/ton on January 1st. Affected by persistent low temperature weather, the demand for heating in northern regions is strong, supporting the consumption of LNG.
Market forecast: In January, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid will rise, the fuel market will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will increase. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with stable market transactions being the main focus. At present, the market is still in a situation of oversupply, and it is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.