price trend
According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, after the May Day holiday, the domestic PC market has fallen from a low level, and the spot prices of most brands have been weak. As of May 13th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15200 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -1.83% compared to early May.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter May, domestic PC aggregation enterprises will experience high and stable loads with small fluctuations. The current industry average operating level is still fluctuating around 83% compared to the beginning of the month. During this period, the weekly average production remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply was very abundant. Manufacturers and midstream inventory are high, and shipping pressure continues to be significant, with weak market supply side support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A fell from a high level in May. Low price replenishment at the end of April in the early stage boosted market momentum. At the same time, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. However, downstream enterprises have inventory waiting to be digested after the holiday, and on-site trading is sluggish. In terms of raw materials, acetone and phenol are consolidating at a low level, which lacks sufficient support for spot goods. The positive transmission of oil recovery in the remote upstream still needs time. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs has weakened compared to before the holiday.
In terms of demand, PC consumption in May continued the weak rigid demand pattern, and new orders in the market remained basically at the same level as the same period in previous years. The downstream factories are operating normally and stocking up is proceeding as planned. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to lead to destocking. Against the backdrop of contract delivery and shrinking new order procurement after the holiday season, merchants tend to be cautious and cautious. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the circulation speed of on-site goods is returning slowly. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Since May, the domestic PC market has been running at a low level with some decline. The upstream bisphenol A market is in a downward trend, which provides poor support for the cost side of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of weak rigid demand, and the impact of the cancellation of US tariff policies and the rebound of crude oil has not yet been fully transmitted. Industry players remain cautious about the future market. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and the seller camp is reducing prices and increasing their sales operations. Overall, the pressure on PC production and sales remains, and it is expected that the weak PC market will continue to have some inertia in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor news related to the foreign trade environment.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 807 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 829 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.73% and a year-on-year increase of 4.94%. On May 11th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 783 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 30.94% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 780-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 870-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the caustic soda company underwent maintenance, resulting in a decline in inventory. Downstream aluminum plants have a relatively high profit level across the industry, and the company is operating at a high load. The demand for alumina is still acceptable, and the demand for caustic soda from alumina is also acceptable.
Business analysts believe that the recent rise in caustic soda prices is driving the market trend, and the domestic downstream demand is still acceptable, supporting the firm operation of caustic soda prices. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating trend in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight increase since May. As of May 9th, the average market price in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63% from the beginning of the month. During the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply, and the PTA market opened slightly lower after the holiday. Subsequently, international oil prices rebounded, and the cost performance remained firm. In addition, two sets of equipment were repaired one after another, and domestic supply decreased, which helped push PTA prices higher.
The international crude oil market saw a significant decline during the May Day holiday, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which negatively impacted international oil prices. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate, international oil prices have risen. As of May 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $59.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.84 per barrel.
From a personal perspective, there has been an increase in PTA maintenance since May, and the PTA industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 72%, the lowest level of the year.
Downstream polyester production and sales continued to increase before the holiday, leading to a significant improvement in industry inventory. The polyester load remained at 90%, which is the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In addition, there are signs of easing in the trade dispute, with a rebound in commodity sentiment, an improvement in demand sentiment, and a slight issuance of terminal orders.
Business analysts believe that OPEC+’s accelerated production increase and demand outlook are poor, and the pressure on the crude oil market still exists. In addition, some of its PTA maintenance facilities have restarted, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. However, there is an opportunity for the geopolitical situation to ease, and the macro trends both domestically and internationally are positive. The downstream polyester load has exceeded expectations, and there is an improvement in terminal orders to support sentiment. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices are mainly subject to strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has seen a slight increase recently. Currently, the mainstream price for Shanghai goods is 15200-15500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for domestic sources (PM200) is 15400-15600 yuan/ton. In recent times, export orders have been delivered in a concentrated manner, and intermediaries have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. Low end quotations have stopped falling and increased. In May, there will be limited supply for the Ningbo plant, and there will be maintenance plans for the Shanghai plant. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate strongly in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market first fell and then rose in April, with an overall increase. As of April 30th, the average bid price for maleic anhydride was 6920.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 2.59% from 6750.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.
On the supply side: In mid to early April, due to the impact of US tariffs, there was a significant decline in domestic bulk commodities, and the factory execution prices in the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to fall. Downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride had limited procurement, and they mainly replenished their demand for maleic anhydride. In late April, Yantai Wanhua unexpectedly shut down, and the price of maleic anhydride factory increased significantly. At present, Yantai Wanhua is parked until the end of May, and Hengli Petrochemical has a low load. Qingdao Refining and Chemical will start selling during the May Day holiday. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6700 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6400 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Pure benzene market prices fluctuated and fell in April. The market price fell in the first half of the year, fluctuated and rose in the middle, and fell in the second half. On April 1st, the price was 6659.67 yuan/ton; On April 29th, the price was 5785.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.13% from the beginning of the month.
The international crude oil market fluctuated downward in April, and the price of n-butane in the market decreased. As of April 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5030-5100 yuan/ton.
Downstream: During the May Day holiday, some unsaturated resin plants were shut down, resulting in a relative decrease in supply. Unsaturated resin was urgently needed for downstream procurement, which limited support for unsaturated resin and led to a strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride product believes that the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride may restart gradually in the near future. Currently, the focus is on stabilizing prices and observing, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market. In addition, the downward trend of crude oil market during the May Day holiday is not good for the domestic maleic anhydride market. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will decline in the near future.