Refrigerants will rise and fall sharply in 2021, with an overall upward trend. According to the data monitored by the business society, the mainstream average price of R22 at the beginning of the year was 14333 yuan / ton, and the mainstream average price at the end of the year was 18333 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 27.91%. The lowest price in the whole year was 14000 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 2666.67 yuan / ton in October. The average mainstream price of R134a at the beginning of the year was 17500 yuan / ton, and the average mainstream price at the end of the year was 31000 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 77.14%. The lowest price in the whole year was 17500 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 50666.67 yuan / ton in the second half of October and the first half of November.

R22 first suppressed and then increased in the first quarter, with an increase of 11.16% in the quarter. In January, the new quota of R22 was opened. In addition, the raw material chloroform enterprises reduced prices and shipped goods to prevent excessive pressure in the future market. At the same time, during the Spring Festival, the downstream was shut down and had holidays, and the cost demand was weak. As a result, R22 enterprises were unable to support the market, and the price fell by 12.38% in the month. In February, raw materials rose, superimposed with the return of trade merchants to the market, and hoarding increased intentionally, rising by 4.29% during the month. In March, chloroform rose by more than 1000 yuan, with an overall amplitude of 42.24% in the month. In addition, the demand side is gradually changing from off-season to peak season, the air conditioning market is expected to improve, and the export is also improved. The shipment of refrigerant manufacturers is pressureless, pushed up by the limit, with an increase of 7.9% in the month.

R22 continued to rise in the second quarter, rising by 5.44% in the quarter. In April, the price of raw material chloroform continued to rise to 4100 yuan / ton, with an upward range of about 9% in the month, and the cost side supported R22 to rise by 4.18% in February. In May, affected by environmental protection policies and other factors, the demand did not increase significantly, and the cost side unilaterally led R22 to rise slightly by 1.47% in February. In June, the raw materials fluctuated at a high level, the demand continued to be sluggish, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the price remained weak and stable during the month without obvious adjustment.

R22 rose rapidly in the third quarter, up 52.78% in the quarter. In July, the double weakness of cost demand continued, the demand of air conditioning industry fell sharply, and the price of refrigerant enterprises was reduced to shipment. However, supported by quotas, the price did not fall deeply, with a decrease of 3.77% in the month. In August, due to the impact of cost and quota factors, the market supply was tightened, and the manufacturers were reluctant to sell at high prices, especially in the last ten days, the price soared, with an increase of 8.06% in the month. In September, trichloromethane soared by about 33%, the operating load of refrigerant manufacturers fell, Limited sales, and market speculation was high, with an increase of 31.62% in the month

The high level of R22 fell in the fourth quarter, and the price fell frequently. In October, raw materials fluctuated at a high level, but the demand in R22 market application field decreased, the demand support was weak, the price of enterprises was weak, and the price was loose, with an increase of 2.6% in the month. In November, chloroform fell by nearly 50%, the cost support collapsed, and the export was not smooth due to the impact of import and export licenses. R22 fell by 19.41% in February. In December, the export ended in the middle of the year, and the export continued to weaken. In addition, the downstream stock mood was negative at the end of the year, and the domestic market trading was light. Near the end of the month, the price rose slightly due to quota factors, but the following actors were still the main players in the whole month, with a decrease of 11.29%.

R134a rose sharply in the first quarter, up 16.76% in the quarter. In January, due to the maintenance of some units of raw hydrofluoric acid and tight supply, refrigerant manufacturers were forced to reduce the load for operation, with an increase of 12.38% in R134a. In February, the market was relatively calm, with R134a steadily rising by 0.51%. In March, some refrigerant manufacturers had maintenance plans, and most manufacturers reduced the load for operation. The on-site supply was tightened, and the market atmosphere was obvious, with a small increase of 3.37% in the month.

R134a continued to rise in the second quarter, up 8.69% in the quarter. In April, there was no significant change in fundamentals. Most enterprises adjusted their quotations narrowly according to the shipment situation, with an increase of 3.37% during the month. In May, the trichloroethylene market continued to rise, and R134a rose slightly by 1.47% in the month under the condition of flat demand. In June, Meilan, Yonghe and other new production capacity entered the market, and the demand of the auto market weakened in the off-season, the supply increased and the demand decreased, and the offer of R134a was loose.

R134a bottomed out and rose strongly in the third quarter, with an increase of 60.61% in the quarter. In July, the demand for vehicle use was weak, the pressure on the carrier to ship goods increased, the continuous price reduction was for shipment, and some contingent profits basically hit the bottom. R134a fell 9.88% in the month. In August, the first half of the month was light and stable, while in the latter half of the month, the price of raw materials increased, and enterprises actively supported the price rise due to cost considerations, with an increase of 8.06% in the month. In September, the price of raw material trichloroethylene was higher than 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and power was limited in many places. The operating rate of refrigerant manufacturers further declined, supported by strong cost supply. The pr

ice of R134a soared, and soared 64.93% in the month.

R134a rose first and then fell in the fourth quarter, falling 15.84% in the quarter. In October, after the National Day holiday, the price of trichloroethylene rose to 20000 yuan. The goods were tight and the price was high. The cost strongly supported the price of R134a, which soared by 37.56% in the month. The price jumped above 50000 yuan, a new high in recent three years. In November, the price of raw material trichloroethylene fell below 10000 yuan, and the upward transmission of R134a was not smooth. The demand of the car market was lower than that in the same period last year. Under the influence of bad weather, the high price of R134 began to fall, During the month, it decreased by 19.41%. In December, R134a fell by 20.85% in the month, led by the decline in raw material prices and poor domestic export sales.

In the first half of 2021, the refrigerant price showed a steady upward trend, while in the second half of 2021, under the influence of the dual control policy of raw materials and energy consumption, the price rose rapidly, R22 and R134a reached a new high in recent three years, and then the price fell sharply due to factors such as lack of cost support and weak demand, showing a roller coaster market, with violent price fluctuations, which is quite opposite to the plight of last year, However, the short-term sharp rise in 2021 is difficult to copy or bring into 2022. It is about to enter January, and R22 rebounds slightly. Although it is good in the short term, the new quota is opened, and it is expected that the price may not continue to rise. The transaction at R134 high price is not smooth, and the enterprise inventory pressure is obvious. It is expected that the price will continue to go down. More attention should be paid to the trend of raw materials and the guidance of market news.

Price list of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi on the 23rd

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on the 23rd, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was about 45000-50000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10000 yuan / ton compared with yesterday.

Yesterday, the central ecological and environmental protection inspector’s meeting pointed out that the blue carbon industry in Yulin City eliminated backward and ineffective cases, frequent illegal construction and prominent environmental problems, conducted a profound and comprehensive analysis on the problems involved in Yulin City, and arranged the deployment of rectification work. In this supervision, 349 blue carbon units with a single furnace capacity of less than 75000 tons in 23 magnesium plants have illegal production, or the subsequent shutdown and elimination of backward equipment, which will directly affect the production and supply of magnesium ingots in the short term, and the merchants of magnesium plants have a strong willingness to support the price. Affected by this message, the demand side has a positive purchase inquiry and a significant increase in the actual transaction rate.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the current policy rectification is not clear, and there are no detailed rectification rules for the time being. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the changes in the policy side, and the risk of wide shock trend in magnesium market will not be ruled out in the short term.

Ammonium chloride market fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic ammonium chloride dry ammonium was 1115 yuan / ton on the 22nd, down 0.67% from the previous day. On the one hand, at present, the operating rate of combined caustic soda has increased to around 70%, and the supply side is still loose. On the other hand, since December, the price of raw liquid ammonia has been weakly consolidated, and the cost side has a weakening trend, which has a negative impact on ammonium chloride. The start-up of downstream compound fertilizer is 30 ~ 40%, and the demand for ammonium chloride is mainly small orders, which can be used as needed. Recently, the urea price fluctuated in a narrow range, which is difficult to support the ammonium chloride market. The ammonium chloride market is weakening as a whole.

It is predicted that the demand side is weak and the cost side is weak. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 21): 8430 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 21, the main PVC contract 2205 closed at 8449, and the spot market continued to decline slightly. The average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8430 yuan / ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The market quotation rose and fell, but the overall rise was less or more. In the off-season of demand, the market trading was relatively flat, and the price of raw materials fell, Under the weak fundamentals, the PVC market is still weak.

Forecast: it is expected that PVC is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (December 20): 2890.00 yuan / ton

On December 20, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on December 17. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3600-3800 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium will not be quoted temporarily. The market of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has declined slightly in the near future, and the enthusiasm for procurement will be strengthened and weakened next time.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.