According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as the end of September approaches, the domestic PP market is maintaining a weak and consolidated operation, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 6961.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04% compared to the price level at the beginning of September.
In terms of raw materials:
Since September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained relaxed, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. At the same time, the OPEC+production increase strategy has continued to this day, coupled with a temporary decline in global demand and low fluctuations in international oil prices. In the early stage of propylene, the boost from Haiwei’s maintenance was exhausted, and there was sufficient supply of goods on site. The upward resistance in the market increased, and the price turned from high to low. Seasonal consumption of propane is on the rise, with prices remaining firm. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials have fluctuated, providing average cost support.
Supply side:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic PP enterprises has increased narrowly. As of press time, the overall load level of the domestic industry has been raised to around 76%, and the weekly average total output is around 770000 tons. The trend of loose supply in the future is clear, which severely limits the support from the supply side. The current on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level is significantly controllable at a high level of 800000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
September is in the traditional peak season for polypropylene, and materials used in fields such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to a certain extent. There is also an increase in new orders in the field of packaging film materials, and the market momentum continues to rise. However, the positive trend of improved trading atmosphere in the current market has been smoothed out by many negative factors. In addition, downstream enterprises have a low workload and many National Day holidays are arranged, resulting in slow overall digestion, which has led to the failure of PP peak season consumption start-up and weak support for the demand side.
Future forecast
As September approaches the end of the month, the domestic PP market prices are still running weakly. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is also weak, and the overall support for PP is insufficient. The industry load is expected to remain high with a narrow adjustment, and there are expectations of loose supply in the future. Although there has been an improvement in consumption, the market is being dragged by the cost and supply sides. There is no obvious peak season feature in the current market, and there is resistance to the PP upward trend. It is expected that the game may continue to consolidate the market.

Entering September, the overall trend of the domestic ABS market continued to consolidate and move weakly, with some spot prices of certain grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 9925 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.73% compared to early September.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since September, the domestic ABS industry has experienced a combination of load reduction and restart, with overall load being high, stable, and fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises had cost maintenance operations, but the magnitude was relatively narrow. In the middle of the month, there is a return to production capacity in aggregation plants such as Tianjin Dagu. Based on recent short-term repairs by some manufacturers, the industry’s load level remains at around 70% with a narrow adjustment, and domestic plant dynamics have limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. The average weekly output is over 140000 tons, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is at a high level of 240000 tons, with ample supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and industry inventory is relatively controllable. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Recently, the upstream three material market of ABS has been generally weak, which has a negative impact on the cost side of ABS. At the beginning of the month, the supply of acrylonitrile in the East China region decreased and prices increased. However, the follow-up of spot transactions has been slow, and the northern maintenance facilities have gradually resumed, resulting in a halt in the rise and subsequent decline of spot prices in the middle of the month. However, spot buying remains in a state of rigid demand, resulting in limited demand growth and a temporary market downturn. However, considering cost pressures and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.
Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been fluctuating and consolidating after a decline. The current domestic production has slightly declined, coupled with limited port arrivals, which has slightly boosted the supply side. However, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and buyers’ enthusiasm for entering the market is low, lacking demand support. It is expected that the butadiene market will be weak and volatile in the short term. From the expectation of pre holiday stocking demand, there is some upward potential in the butadiene market in the latter half of the year.
Styrene has recently maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the year, domestic factories started operating at a high level, and the raw material pure benzene fell. From the perspective of market performance, the price center of gravity has basically exhausted after the middle of the month. Recently, pure benzene and rising crude oil and styrene port inventories have appeared simultaneously, causing a dilemma between long and short positions in the market. In the future, due to the weak impact of its own fundamentals, styrene may have limited upward space.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market still exhibits significant off-season characteristics, and terminal enterprises have not yet started stocking up before the holiday, with logic still maintaining a strong demand for supplementary orders. The consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry is quiet, and there is no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain strong at high levels, supply continues to be loose, and there is increased pressure to sell on the market. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
As the holiday approaches, the domestic ABS market remains weak. The upstream three materials may fall or consolidate, and the production load of ABS polymerization plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand has not shown any increase. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. The current ABS market atmosphere is light, with high resistance to upward movement. It is expected that ABS may continue to decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7378 yuan/ton on September 15th and 7395 yuan/ton on September 18th, with a rate of 0.23% last week. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9593 yuan/ton on September 15th and 9600 yuan/ton on September 18th, an increase of 0.07%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7957 yuan/ton on September 15th and 7957 yuan/ton on September 18th, with a stable quotation.
Polyethylene prices have been weak this week, with a narrow upward adjustment. The market supply side is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season of demand, with greenhouse film production maintaining a high level. The orders for northern plastic film have increased, and factory production is gradually increasing; The construction of other industries is relatively stable, with cautious procurement and a focus on essential purchases. The demand side has limited support for polyethylene. On the cost side, on September 18th, international crude oil futures closed down due to weakened demand after the end of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, and the continued increase in OPEC+production, which weakened the cost side and suppressed the polyethylene spot market.
Polyethylene supply is sufficient, and there are positive expectations on the demand side; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate in a narrow range, and the upward space may be limited.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6700 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% lower than the reference average price of 6710 yuan/ton on September 12th.
2、 Market analysis
Market Aspects
This week, there was a narrow adjustment in the domestic phosphoric acid market prices, resulting in a slight decline in the overall market trend. As of September 18th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6800 yuan/ton, in Yunnan region it is around 6450 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is sufficient, the market demand is weakened, and downstream purchases are being made at lower prices. To alleviate inventory pressure, it is expected that the short-term price of yellow phosphorus will be weak and adjusted.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been weak recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. The market situation of phosphoric acid follows the downward trend of raw materials, and currently the market supply and demand are stable. It is expected that the short-term domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly experience consolidation and operation.

This week, the acrylic market price showed a narrow upward trend. As of September 17, the acrylic benchmark price was 6,416.67 yuan/ton, up 2.67% from the beginning of this month (6,250.00 yuan/ton). This indicates that the market as a whole is in a slow upward channel.
Supply:
Industry capacity utilization rate compared to the previous week (September 4, 72.84% vs. September 11, 74.40%) has improved, but some manufacturers and stockholders are more willing to go ahead and bid on the market, so that the market low price supply decreased.
Demand:
Downstream users are mostly on-demand procurement, the willingness to actively stock is not very strong, mainly digesting contract orders and existing inventory. This game between supply and demand is one of the main reasons for narrow price fluctuations.
Cost side: the price of the main raw material acrylic in Shandong region appeared a slight decline (6530-6570 yuan / ton, a drop of 50-80 yuan / ton). The cost support strength has been weakened, which makes the increase in the price of acrylic acid is limited to a certain extent, and there is no significant increase.
Market sentiment:
The mindset of traders is more positive, and the market is positive, but the market is actually trading (actual transaction) in general, both buyers and sellers are more cautious, with actual negotiations as the main.
Future Outlook
In the near future, it is expected that the domestic acrylic market may continue to operate strongly. It is important to note that the trend of raw material acrylic prices is still an uncertain factor. Follow-up of downstream demand is critical, if demand cannot be sustained, the sustainability of price increases may be limited. It is recommended that operators pay close attention to the device dynamics of major production enterprises and downstream inventory.
Overall, the acrylic market this week has achieved a narrow upward trend with good prices and support from stockholders in the context of weakening cost support and a slight increase in supply. The market shows a shocking pattern of “up resistance, down support”.