According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8316.67 yuan / ton on August 29 and 8250.00 yuan / ton on September 3, with a decline of 0.80% during the week and an increase of 7.14% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11350.00 yuan / ton on August 29 and 11337.50 yuan / ton on September 3, with a decline of 0.11% during the week and an increase of 9.67% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8750.00 yuan / ton on August 29 and 8750.00 yuan / ton on September 3. The price was stable during the week, up 1.74% compared with the same period last year.

The overall trend of the three PE spot varieties this week was weak. HPDE in East China operated smoothly during the week, LLDPE prices decreased by a narrow margin, LDPE prices fell first and then rose, but the fluctuation range of the spot market was limited. Most Petrochemical ex factory prices fell this week, with weak cost support, ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton. The downstream maintains replenishment on demand, the market trading atmosphere is depressed, the merchant mentality is poor, the negotiation mode is continued, and the market quotation rises and falls. The high voltage is affected by the shutdown and maintenance of Shenhua Yulin, the market supply is limited, and the price has increased.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend recently. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1006-1016 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $986-996 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1212-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1136-1144 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 3rd, the price was US $1026-1044 / T. recently, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend, and the recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe was not large. Ethylene rose periodically in Asia. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market is general recently, the market trading atmosphere is OK, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

Liansu futures fell first and then rose this week, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On September 3, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8280, the highest price was 8390, the lowest price was 8280, the closing price was 8375, the former settlement price was 8160, the settlement price was 8340, up 215, or 2.63%, the trading volume was 424181, the position was 311256, and the daily position was increased by 22516（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of current market supply, there is expected to increase in the later stage. In terms of demand, the downstream market entry is general, the terminal takes goods on demand, and the merchant mentality is poor. However, the trend of the futures market is rising, and the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase in the later stage. In the future, it is expected that the PE spot market will fluctuate upward.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the spot copper price fell slightly on September 2, and the current quotation is 69466.67 yuan / ton, down 0.67% from the previous trading day. Small Non-agricultural enterprises in the United States were less than expected, and the metal fell overnight. Chile’s mining industry has passed the mining tax bill, which will significantly increase the effective tax rate and affect mining investment. The third batch of domestic dumping and storage will arrive at the plant as soon as next week, which is lower than the market price, which is conducive to reducing the cost of downstream enterprises. The reduction in output caused by power restriction can be further compensated, the market supply pressure is relieved, and the copper price drops slightly.

Forecast: the copper price fell slightly due to the impact of throwing reserves and macro bad. In the traditional peak season in September, the demand is expected to be better, and the short-term high shock trend of the pre price copper price is mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14550 yuan / ton on August 1 and 14475 yuan / ton on August 31. The price of caprolactam fell 0.52% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the price of caprolactam fell first and then rose. The trend of caprolactam was downward in the first half of August. The price of raw material pure benzene fell and the cost support was weak. The supply of caprolactam increased, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand, with general demand. The price of caprolactam rebounded and rose in the second half of August. The supply of caprolactam enterprises decreased due to plant maintenance. The raw material pure benzene rose and the cost support was good. The enthusiasm of downstream polymerization plants is not high, and the demand is acceptable. As of August 31, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15200 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14250 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

In the first ten days of August, due to the typhoon weather and epidemic situation, the shipment of enterprises was limited, the inventory pressure increased, and the price remained in a narrow range after a sharp decline. The high price of pure benzene in the period before demand led to increased resistance in the downstream, decreased operating rate of some enterprises and decreased demand for pure benzene. In late August, crude oil rebounded sharply and fundamental news improved. Near the end of the month, the delivery of enterprises was acceptable, and the price of pure benzene rebounded slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, due to the maintenance of some caprolactam enterprises, the supply is reduced again. The downstream just needs to be purchased, and the terminal demand is OK. The price of raw material pure benzene rose and the cost was strongly supported. The caprolactam market is expected to develop well in September, and the price may rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling in August

According to the data of business agency, as of August 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 11766.67 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 2.32% compared with 11500.00 yuan / ton on August 1.

On August 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 110.85, down 0.31 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 116.59% from the lowest point 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In August, the market price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling, and the international crude oil rebounded at the end of the month, resulting in an increase in the domestic chemical price, an increase in the operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin, mainly weak consolidation in the resin market and just needed procurement. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11600 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 12000 yuan / ton.

The recent sharp rebound in crude oil has basically recovered the previous decline. On the one hand, the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate supports the strength of crude oil. On the other hand, market participants believe that the US government had previously urged OPEC to increase production to curb oil prices, and the market sold oil prices too short. Under the current situation of relatively stable supply and demand fundamentals, China’s epidemic peak passed, and the economic acceleration brought demand growth. Superimposed on the decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, oil prices rose in a revised manner.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated downward in August. The ex factory price in North China was 8137.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7520 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.59%. In August, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was lowered three times, with a cumulative reduction of 600 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7550 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7500 yuan / ton. In August, the start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises declined, and the start-up in northern China was slightly lower. The start-up and shutdown cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arranged their production according to their profits. In terms of n-butane, Shandong price is 5300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that: at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market supply is limited, some factories are pre sold to late September, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China rose sharply this week. The average price of sulfur production was 1863.33 yuan / ton on August 27, an increase of 6.07% compared with 1756.67 yuan / ton on August 20.

This week, the domestic sulfur market was strong and upward, the supply of goods in Hong Kong was tight, it was difficult to find low prices on the site, the goods holders were reluctant to sell, and the external price was strong, which boosted the market mentality. The shipments of refineries in various regions of China were stable, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The on-site mentality was positive, the market transaction atmosphere was good, and the enterprise shipments were smooth, The price of domestic refineries will be increased according to their own shipment, and the price of liquid sulfur in East China will be increased by 100 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be increased by 40-100 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be increased by 40 yuan / ton. As of the 27th, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties August 20th August 27th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1700-1820 yuan / ton 1850-1940 yuan / ton 120-150 yuan / ton

North China Sulfur (particle) 1590-1680 yuan / ton 1690-1730 yuan / ton 50-100 yuan / ton

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1760-1780 yuan / ton 1860-1880 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market operates on a wait-and-see basis. The atmosphere in the primary ammonium fertilizer field is weak, the waiting volume of enterprises is reduced, the quotation of enterprises is high, and the downstream market just needs to enter the market. The price of diammonium decreased slightly within the week, mainly due to the export of enterprise orders, insufficient domestic supply, weak market transactions, and wait-and-see consolidation of the future market. In terms of supply and demand performance, the ammonium phosphate market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

According to the sulfur analysts of business society, the domestic sulfur market is high and strong, the supply of port goods is tight, the cargo holders are reluctant to sell, the spot on the site is difficult to find, and the external price is strong, which has strong support for the domestic refinery sulfur market. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to be sorted and operated, and pay attention to the market progress.