According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 18th, the price of lead 1 # was 16900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the lead price of 16915 yuan/ton on April 14th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices experienced a slight decline due to weak consolidation within the range.
Raw material end
The bullish expectations of recyclers continue to ferment, and the current inventory of recycled lead raw materials is still significantly lower than the historical average level of the same period. The reason behind this is that the amount of discarded lead-acid batteries is showing a decreasing trend, coupled with intensified competition in recycling channels, leading to a weakened supply elasticity in the waste battery market. Prices are easily affected by short-term supply-demand mismatches and maintain a pattern of easy rise but difficult fall.
supply end
In April, domestic northern mines were still in the stage of capacity ramp up. Currently, the raw material inventory of smelters remains relatively abundant, and the overall supply system of the mining end is running smoothly without significant fluctuations. The weekly processing fee index for domestic lead concentrate remained unchanged from last week, and there was no significant change in the profit transmission mechanism at the mining end. Regenerated lead smelting enterprises are facing significant cost inversion pressure, squeezed by high raw material procurement costs and weak downstream consumption. It is expected that the number of production reduction enterprises will further increase next week, and there is a downward risk in the industry’s capacity utilization rate.
demand side
The May Day holiday is approaching, and downstream battery production companies have gradually launched raw material inventory and stocking plans based on production linkage and raw material supply assurance considerations. Although the current procurement behavior has not yet shown a trend of concentrated volume, driven by the expected release of downstream stage replenishment demand, the market trading atmosphere is transitioning from cautious observation to a moderate recovery, and the overall activity is expected to steadily increase during the pre holiday window period.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that in the short term, the central price of lead will show a moderate upward trend in the game of macroeconomic sentiment disturbance and fundamental support, with the upward range mainly consisting of narrow range fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (4.14-4.18), with an average market price of 261640 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 256950 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 1.79%.
On the supply side, the Wa State of Myanmar officially announced the process for obtaining mining and exploration permits at the end of February. Based on the actual situation, the resumption of production in its mining area may require a preparation period of three months. This situation may lead to a reduction in the amount of tin ore imported from Myanmar in April. At the same time, domestic tin concentrate processing fees are showing a fluctuating downward trend. Taking into account various factors, it may indicate that the domestic tin ore supply is expected to tighten. Although there is expected to be an increase in the supply of waste tin, the scale of the increase is constrained by multiple factors such as the waste tin recycling system and raw material quality, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the current tight supply situation. However, this change may lead to an increase in China’s production of recycled tin in April. In addition, the inventory of refined tin in China showed a downward trend in April.
On the demand side, in April, the production capacity and vitality of China’s tin and solder industry increased, and the operating rate showed an upward trend; The import and export trade scale of China’s welding strip industry in April may shrink, and the import and export volume is expected to decrease; The production pace of China’s tinplate industry may slow down in April, and the production volume may decline.
comprehensive analysis
The short-term trend of tin price reduction has been delayed, and the news has affected consumption. After the bottom of the oscillation, the range fluctuates.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has recently stopped falling and stabilized, with some improvement in market purchasing and sales. The spot price of aniline in East China is 7500-7600 yuan/ton. It is reported that the fluctuation and decline of raw material pure benzene have dragged down the aniline market. Downstream demand for aniline is stocking up before the holiday, leading to increased demand and accelerated shipment by enterprises, resulting in price stabilization. With the end of downstream stocking in the future and insufficient cost support, it is expected that aniline will remain weak in the short term.

This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has been operating steadily at a high level. As the May Day holiday approaches, the market’s spot inventory supply is tight, and pre holiday replenishment resources are tight. Manufacturers have a positive attitude towards raising prices. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 24th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.62% compared to early April.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has slightly declined. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 24th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6710.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The spot supply of glycerol based epichlorohydrin in the market is relatively tight, and enterprises have a positive attitude towards raising prices. Overall, the operating rate remains at around 50-60%.
Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market supply remains normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. The overall trading atmosphere has improved, with no inventory pressure and a positive purchasing atmosphere. It is expected that the market will be dominated in the future.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that downstream market demand will improve and traders will have a positive purchasing attitude. It is predicted that the epoxy chloropropane market may continue to show a strong trend in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 23rd, the price of acetic acid, Xiaoaoting, was at an average market price of 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from yesterday’s price, a decrease of 1.06%, and a decrease of 0.36% compared to the beginning of the month.
The domestic acetic acid market is running weakly, and market prices in various regions have been partially lowered. The load of Yanzhou mining equipment on the supply side has increased, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity has increased, and the downstream market enthusiasm is not high. A small amount of follow-up is mainly based on demand, and the company’s shipments are poor. The market mentality is bearish, and the price trend of acetic acid has been lowered.
On April 23rd, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region/ On April 22nd/ On April 23rd/ rise and fall
South China region/ 2675 yuan/ton/ 2675 yuan/ton/ 0
North China region/ 2765 yuan/ton/ 2725 yuan/ton/ -40
Shandong region/ 2780 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ -30
Jiangsu region/ 2555 yuan/ton/ 2555 yuan/ton/ 0
Zhejiang region/ 2765 yuan/ton/ 2765 yuan/ton/ 0
The upstream raw material methanol price trend is relatively strong and has been raised. On April 23rd, the average price in the domestic market was 2430 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67% compared to yesterday’s price of 2390 yuan/ton. The methanol plant on the supply side has been shut down, and the market supply is somewhat tight. At the same time, the inventory of enterprises is low, and downstream demand is still acceptable. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the methanol market is relatively strong and stable.
On April 23rd, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 4750 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market has declined, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened. Downstream market entry has followed suit as needed, and market trading has remained stable. The acetic anhydride market is operating in a wait-and-see manner.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the increase in domestic acetic acid plant construction will increase the pressure on on-site supply, and downstream demand will follow suit, which will limit support for acetic acid and lack market benefits. It is expected that the acetic acid market will weaken and consolidate, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.