As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol fell violently this month, from 8900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 56.25%.

On July 27, the isooctanol commodity index was 60.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.97% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 72.23% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Shandong isooctanol market in July

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory is general.

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market fell slightly this month. The propylene price fell from 7680.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7234.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly. The DOP price fell from 9550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43.56% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the aftermarket

In the middle and early August, the domestic isooctanol market may decline slightly, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price has fallen slightly recently, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream DOP market has fallen slightly, and there is still a downward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in July, the polyester filament market remained volatile and fell. As of July 27, various products fell to varying degrees, including polyester FDY and polyester POY, which fell by 7.16% and 6.96% respectively, and polyester DTY fell by 4.48%.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in July unit: yuan / ton

Products, 2022-07-01, 2022-07-27, rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150d/48f), 8616, 8016, -6.96%, 2.12%

Polyester FDY (150d/96f), 9221, 8561, -7.16%, 6.02%

Polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity), 9735, 9298, -4.48%, -2.19%

There was a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottoming rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year.

In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.

In terms of PTA, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.

At present, the industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices, intensifying the pressure on the demand side. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. However, stimulated by the low price, there was a strong atmosphere of bottom hunting in terminal textile enterprises in late October, and the raw materials were concentrated until the end of the month. The order atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall range was not large.

Business analysts believe that on the raw material side, the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market intensifies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. Affected by the off-season, the demand side is expected to further reduce production. Without substantial improvement in demand, the price of polyester filament is still dominated by cost, and the rebound is unsustainable. It is expected that the price will continue to fall under pressure in August.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7637.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7275.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.75%. The current price increased by 28.08% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In July, the domestic potassium nitrate Market showed an upward trend. From the above figure, we can see that the potassium nitrate Market has continued to rise since 2022, but the market began to fall this month. The main reason is that the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price continues to fall. The supply of border trade goods has arrived one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is sufficient. The downstream demand is low, the market transaction is light, and the potassium nitrate Market is low. According to the statistics of business agency, the recent quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers is 7000-7500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in July. The source of border trade goods has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. At present, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5300 yuan / ton. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton.

The price of potash fertilizer in the international market continues to decline, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4262 yuan / ton on July 25, up 0.38% from the previous trading day and 27.35% year-on-year. On July 25, the closing price of 2209, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 4006 yuan / ton, up 2.59%.

In terms of spot goods, the quotations of some major manufacturers rose, and the overall shipment was supported. With the weather improving, the terminal demand increased.

The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the asphalt high price transaction is limited, and the domestic asphalt market is mainly sorted out in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA market maintained a downward trend this week (July 18-22). As of July 22, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5810 yuan / ton, down 2.26% from the beginning of the week and up 8.36% year-on-year.

With the increase of two sets of 4.2 million ton PTA units in Yisheng Ningbo and two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units in Yisheng new material to 90% of the load. Up to now, the operating load of PTA industry is more than 73%. The main suppliers of PTA sell spot goods, and the circulation volume has increased.

U.S. gasoline inventories increased. In addition, at the macro level, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, raising concerns about falling demand. Crude oil volatility weakened. As of July 21, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $96.35 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $103.86 / barrel.

Large factories plan to increase production reduction, and polyester load further drops to 76%. Superimposed on the impact of summer high temperature and sporadic epidemic, and the current off-season characteristics are obvious, terminal construction remains low, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fall to less than 50%, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

Business analysts believe that the oil price fluctuated and fell, PTA costs continued to move down, the demand side performance was weak, and there is still room for polyester construction to be reduced. At the same time, PTA spot liquidity increased, and PTA prices are expected to enter a downward trend.