1、 Price trend
This week, the aniline market rose at a high level. On August 31st, the price of aniline in the market was 13425 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, it was 13525 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.74% during the week and 79.14% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
Supported by high prices of aniline during the week, aniline narrowly pushed up. High raw material prices, tightened profits for downstream products of aniline, weakened purchasing intentions, and a focus on essential needs. The rise in the price of raw material pure benzene has driven up the price of aniline. As of this Friday, the mainstream domestic price for aniline is 13500-13600 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The pure benzene market is tight and the supply and demand pattern is becoming loose. On the one hand, production enterprises are in a negative channel. On the other hand, although downstream profits have recovered, production is still dragged down by terminals, resulting in a slow negative trend. The current absolute inventory level is still low, and the circulation of goods has not yet increased, so the price performance is firm. Short term geopolitical waves are resurging, and the logic of pure benzene shortage is once again dominant, causing the price center to shift upward.
3、 Future expectations
The current price of aniline has risen to a high level, and the market is digesting the increase. Under high costs, the downstream market’s enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened, with rigid demand being the main factor. It is expected that there will be significant resistance to the continued rise of aniline in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in costs and demand.

As of September 3, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7866 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 3.96% compared to August 31 (reference price of n-butanol is 7566 yuan/ton).
1、 Price trend data
At the beginning of September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong experienced a steady upward trend. The focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market in Shandong has shifted upwards, with a cumulative increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of September 3rd, the n-butanol market price in Shandong is expected to be around 7500-7900 yuan/ton.
2、 Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: Recently, driven by international crude oil, the market price of propylene, the upstream cost side raw material for n-butanol, has shown an upward trend, and the price support provided by the cost side for n-butanol has increased..
In terms of supply and demand: At the beginning of the month, the spot market supply of n-butanol in Shandong was limited, and the supply side provided some bottoming support to the market. The downstream receiving sentiment improved, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The improvement in supply and demand transmission boosted the price of n-butanol.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the on-site inquiry atmosphere for n-butanol is mild, and there is still good support from the market. It is expected that in the short term, the price center of n-butanol market will be mainly strong, and specific attention needs to be paid to the downstream industry’s operating conditions and changes in supply and demand factors.

1、 Price Trends:
This week, the price of propylene has shown a trend of initially suppressing and then rising, with a sustained upward trend. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of propylene was reported at 9227.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.78% compared to the beginning of this month (8977.67 yuan/ton). The cumulative increase in the past 5 days has reached 6.13%, with increases of 9.19%, 16.40%, and 19.93% on the 20th, 30th, and 60th, respectively, indicating an accelerating trend.
2、 Triple Drivers of Rising Prices
1. Cost side: US Iran conflict reignites, oil prices jump
On September 1st, the US military launched a new round of strikes against targets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Iran immediately attacked US military targets in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The daily traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to 5 ships (more than 120 before the conflict), and oil tankers were hit by mines and caught fire. Driven by this, the WTI October contract closed at $90.22 per barrel (+5.20%), while the Brent November contract closed at $94.65 per barrel (+4.60%), further rising above $95.6 during trading. The import logistics costs of propane and naphtha upstream of propylene have been simultaneously pushed up, with direct and strong cost drivers.
2. Supply side: Maintenance and logistics disruptions work together to tighten the supply of goods
In August, the equipment maintenance and restart alternated, and the circulation of goods in East China gradually contracted, while the inventory of finished products in enterprises remained at a medium low level; The superposition of strait obstruction increases the cost of PDH and oil production routes, and the pace of supply recovery is actively delayed.
3. Demand side: Follow up is acceptable, but the upper limit is clear
The downstream operating rate of PP rebounded month on month in late August, and the orders for plastic weaving and BOPP improved slightly, which is the support of “still able to follow up on demand”. However, the overall downstream profit is poor, the improvement of new orders is limited, and procurement is still mainly based on essential needs, making it difficult to support large-scale replenishment.
3、 Market outlook: High level game intensifies, with caution as the main focus
Supporting factors: unresolved US Iran conflict, uncertainty in cross-strait navigation, and difficulty in quickly reducing oil price risk premium; Domestic device maintenance and restart coexist, and external supply is relatively tight.
Suppression factor: Supply increment or excess demand increment after restarting the maintenance device; The price of propylene has reached a high level, and the transmission of costs downstream is hindered. Once the inventory in East China ports stops being depleted, there is a risk of accumulation; The geopolitical situation is volatile, and once oil prices ease and rebound, propylene is prone to follow suit.
Core observation points:
Does the mean square begin to narrow and turn from positive to negative (a downward signal);
Can the price remain above the 20 day moving average;
Has the navigation volume in the strait rebounded. The signal of “rising start” when the moving average turns positive has been fulfilled. It is not advisable to equate the continuation of the trend with no risk at present. In terms of operation, it is advisable to follow the trend but not chase higher, and closely monitor the moving average support.

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in August. As of August 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5565.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 327.50 yuan/ton or 6.25% from the price of 5237.50 yuan/ton on August 1st.
The acetic anhydride market saw a strong upward trend in August. In the first half of the month, some manufacturers of acetic anhydride underwent equipment maintenance, which boosted market sentiment. However, the price of raw material acetic acid remained weak and the cost was bearish. Under the psychological game, the price of acetic anhydride mainly stabilized; In the second half of the month, with the upward trend of the upstream market, the cost pressure of acetic anhydride continues to increase. Manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices, and coupled with tight supply, the price of acetic anhydride has risen significantly under favorable support.
Acetic acid market fell first and then rose in August
In July, the price of acetic acid increased from 3223.33 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.69%. Acetic acid prices have fallen slightly at the beginning of the month due to the off-season demand; In the second half of the year, supply tightened, export support and rising costs boosted the price of acetic acid, and the overall acetic acid market remained strong. The rise in raw material prices has increased the cost pressure on acetic anhydride, driving up the price of acetic anhydride.
Outlook for the future market
Analysts believe that the current raw material acetic acid market is relatively strong, and cost support still exists. The inventory pressure on the acetic anhydride supply side is not high, and downstream demand follows up. The downward space in the market is limited, and it is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be strong and stable in the future. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price chart
1. Futures (main force of PVC on the Dalian Commodity Exchange): Today, it rose sharply, closing at 4791 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.00%. The trading volume increased during the day, with a trading volume of 1.7184 million lots, and there was a clear fund game at the end of the month.
2. In stock (electric stone method SG-5)
The daily increase of SG-5 calcium carbide method in East China was 4.28%, with a stock price of around 4650 yuan/ton. Ethylene spot price: 4850-5000 yuan/ton, with a high price difference maintained.
Spot prices have significantly increased, and traders have offered lower prices, leading to a reluctance to sell. Many dealers have been negotiating unilaterally, but their willingness to chase after high prices is not strong.
2、 Supply side
The comprehensive construction rate of the industry is 65-67%, but the construction rate is still relatively low; Less than 70% of the electricity production has started using the calcium carbide method, while around 60% has started using the ethylene method; Currently at the peak of maintenance in August, some companies have passively reduced their losses, resulting in a short-term marginal contraction of supply. This maintenance is mostly seasonal, and the equipment will resume production in September. There is an expectation of a rebound in supply, but the supply contraction is not sustainable. In terms of profit, both the carbide method and the ethylene method are in the loss range. Causing companies to lower their insurance premiums.
Raw materials: The price of calcium carbide is fluctuating, and the cost of thermal coal is bottoming out; Ethylene is subject to international oil geopolitical disturbances, resulting in significant fluctuations in cost expectations.
3、 Demand side
The operating rate of downstream products is still the fundamental reason for the current industry downturn, with an overall operating rate of less than 40%, lower than the same period in previous years; The pipeline is relatively weak due to the drag of new real estate construction; The profile relies on minor support from renovation and refurbishment, with limited incremental growth. Downstream procurement is mainly based on immediate needs, without large-scale proactive replenishment of inventory; Low prices stimulate a small amount of bargain hunting inventory, but there is no significant rebound in substantive demand. External demand remains pessimistic: India’s trade barriers, rising shipping costs, and weak export orders make it difficult to offset the insufficient domestic demand. The market is waiting for the verification of the “Golden September” peak season in September, which is currently only expected and has not yet been fulfilled.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that the reason for the significant increase in prices today is twofold: firstly, due to the oversold prices in the previous period, the industry suffered deep losses, leading to cost valuation repair; secondly, the August maintenance brought about short-term supply contraction expectations;
In the later stage, the short-term rebound height may be limited. Costs provide bottom support, but the actual demand is weak and social inventory is high, and the continued surge lacks favorable factors to support it, with a high probability of range oscillation; The follow-up strength of spot prices will be weaker than that of futures prices.
We need to pay attention to whether the resumption of work will resume after the maintenance in September in the later stage; And the situation of downstream production starting in the peak season of September and whether orders have substantially improved.