In June 2026, the domestic nitrile rubber market fluctuated and weakened, with a significant shift in price focus. The market bid farewell to the hype in the first half of the year and returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. Overall transactions were light, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As of June 29th, the price was 16150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00% from 22175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 29th, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 15200 to 15700 yuan/ton; Southern Emperor 1052 mainstream price ranges from 17000 to 17500 yuan/ton.
The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly adjusted. As of June 29th, the price of butadiene was 8866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.86% from 11800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 29th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10133 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. The easing of the situation in the Middle East has driven the comprehensive resumption of overseas cracking units, and the domestic butadiene port inventory has risen to a high of 38500 tons, weakening the overall cost support.
In June, the average operating rate of domestic nitrile enterprises remained at a high level of 72% -76%. Main facilities such as Lanhua and Ningbo were operating at full capacity, and coupled with the concentration of high priced imported goods in the port in the early stage, the market circulation of goods was abundant, and spot supply continued to be loose.
In June, the production of new energy vehicles remained stable, driving the urgent procurement of medium and high acrylonitrile NBR and HNBR, and stabilizing orders for head sealing factories; The demand for universal NBR for traditional fuel vehicles continues to weaken, and small and medium-sized auto parts factories have a weak willingness to purchase and replenish inventory as needed. The nitrile glove industry maintains a production rate of around 58%, mainly focused on digesting inventory. The general industrial sealing and hydraulic hose industry is dragged down by the off-season of the manufacturing industry. The incremental release of high-end sealing for energy storage and semiconductors is steadily increasing, but the limited volume makes it difficult to offset the weakness of general adhesives. Against the backdrop of falling raw material prices, downstream demand is mainly focused on acquiring goods for essential needs, with less active hoarding and overall weak demand.
As of May 20th, the nitrile rubber spread index showed a trend from strong to weak since mid April, and continued to weaken after falling below the 0 axis. Although it briefly recovered in early May, it turned downwards again in mid May, and the current negative direction has expanded, restarting the downward trend. Combining supply and demand with cost, raw material support has weakened, demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a weakly balanced pattern. Short term prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, with the center of gravity shifting downwards in the medium term and operating under pressure throughout the year.
From mid March to early April 2026, nitrile rubber was boosted by rising raw material prices and tight supply, resulting in a bullish price average. In mid April, a turning point appeared in the market, and the price of nitrile rubber continued to decline in a stepped manner. The price was under long-term pressure below the 10 and 20 day moving averages, and the bearish trend was clear. The short-term 10 day and 20 day moving averages are simultaneously moving downwards, forming a strong pressure level. Without significant bullish factors, it is difficult for prices to rebound and stabilize at the 10 day moving average, and there is still room for downward pressure; The medium-term moving average shows no signs of turning, and the trend is difficult to quickly reverse.
Overall, the market in July and August will continue its weak and volatile trend during the off-season. The annual maintenance of Lanzhou Petrochemical’s main equipment in mid July will bring about a temporary contraction of supply, which can effectively support the bottom rubber price and limit the potential for deep decline. However, weak demand during the off-season will still suppress the rebound height. The traditional peak season of September and October is approaching, and downstream product companies are preparing for production and sales in the fourth quarter. With the release of centralized replenishment demand and the mild recovery of raw material prices, the price of nitrile rubber is expected to rebound slightly, and the price range will shift upward.
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