Recently, the domestic market price of butadiene rubber has continued to decline. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of June 26, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 13010 yuan/ton at the end of February; The closing price of the main contract for Shunding rubber futures fell to 11810 yuan/ton. We have completely reversed all the gains caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict and returned to the benchmark range before the conflict broke out.
With the comprehensive cooling of tensions in the Middle East, the geopolitical speculation logic of commodities has completely disintegrated. International crude oil prices have fluctuated and weakened, directly driving down the price of butadiene. Data shows that the current butadiene port inventory remains at a high level of 38500 tons, with a slight increase of 2.39% month on month. With sufficient raw material supply and downward pressure on prices, the production cost center of the butadiene rubber industry continues to move downwards, providing solid cost support for the continuous decline in rubber prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 26th, the price of butadiene was 8900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.94% from 9993 yuan/ton at the end of February.
The pressure on the supply and demand side of butadiene rubber has further accelerated the price decline. Recently, the production profit of the domestic butadiene rubber industry has slightly recovered, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises has increased. The equipment production has steadily rebounded, and the latest industry capacity utilization rate has risen to 69.26%. The market supply of goods continues to increase.
At present, the downstream is in the traditional off-season of the tire industry, and the operating rate of terminal tire enterprises has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious strategy of on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, with weak demand for goods and difficulty in digesting sufficient market supply. As of June 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has reached around 6.90%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region has reached about 6.60%.
Market forecast:
After the death cross of the moving average in early April 2026, it entered a long-term downward channel, with a continuous bearish alignment on both lines and a significant drop in prices. The current bearish trend of the moving average remains unchanged.
Overall, the current market price, cost, and supply and demand data of butadiene rubber have returned to the fundamental level before the Middle East conflict, and the market trading sentiment is generally cautious. In the short term, the geopolitical benefits have been completely exhausted, and there is still room for decline in the raw material butadiene. Coupled with the continued pattern of high industry production and weak downstream demand during the off-season, rubber prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend.
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