market trend
The price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st (20766.67 yuan/ton), and entered a sideways trend after falling to 19800.00 yuan/ton on June 15th. During the week of June 17th to June 23rd, the reference price of PA66 remained stable at 19800.00 yuan/ton, with daily fluctuations of 0.00% for several consecutive days. The overall trend is characterized by “stabilization and weak stalemate”, with the price center having fallen by about 4.65% since the beginning of the month.
influencing factors
On the cost side: There is ample room for upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine to fall earlier this week, and raw material prices have gradually stopped falling and stabilized. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 is no longer continuing to decline, forming a bottom support for spot prices and preventing the market from continuing to decline sharply. However, the crude oil market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with no upward drive from upstream energy sources. Raw materials have only stopped falling without rebounding, and there are still reasonable profits in the processing stage. Manufacturers currently have no incentive to reduce production due to losses, and the cost side can only limit the decline and cannot provide upward driving force, making it difficult to drive the price of PA66 to rebound.
Supply and demand side: Overall, there is a pattern of loose supply and weak demand. In terms of supply, the overall market supply is sufficient. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually accumulating, and the pressure of shipment has increased. The phenomenon of traders offering discounts to promote transactions has also increased. In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream terminal industries is not as expected, coupled with the current industry entering a traditional off-season, downstream factories only maintain rigid replenishment, and the willingness to purchase in large quantities is low, making it difficult to boost overall market demand. The transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light.
technical analysis
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st, with an average difference of -113.33 yuan/ton on June 14th. The average difference has narrowed from negative to widening again, indicating that the PA66 market had previously fallen and the rate of decline has increased. The current price of 19800 yuan/ton is below the annual median. From the price position data, PA66 is at a “low” level in the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day positions, and at a “medium” level in the one-year position, indicating that it is in the low price range in the short and medium term, but still at a medium level in the annual dimension.
The current market is in a stage of “price sideways and direction unclear”. Although the short-term and medium-term positions are at a low level, the annual position is still at a medium level, and the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average have not yet formed a clear golden cross signal. It is recommended to temporarily suspend large-scale position building and focus on short-term observation.
post-market forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and a slight downward shift in focus. The overall trend will be dominated by a weak stalemate, and it is difficult for a significant rise or fall to occur. The price range is based on 19500-20300 yuan/ton, with a focus on low-level sideways bottoming out, waiting for clear positive signals from demand or raw materials before there is a chance for a rebound.
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