market trend
According to monitoring data, the domestic PA66 market price has continued to decline in the past week (June 9-16). On June 9th, the benchmark price of PA66 market was 20866.67 yuan/ton, and on June 15th, the benchmark price fell to 19800.00 yuan/ton, showing a steady downward trend in price. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, and transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
influencing factors
Cost side: Cost support continues to weaken. The market for core raw material adipic acid has been continuously declining, with prices continuing to decline this week, directly lowering the cost of raw materials for PA66 production; At the same time, the new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine was released, the market supply of goods was sufficient, and the price remained stable with a slight decline, further weakening the support of the raw material side. The loosening of the crude oil price center and the lack of obvious benefits in the upstream energy chain, coupled with the fact that PA66 production enterprises still maintain basic processing profits, there is no situation where losses force production cuts. The cost side is difficult to effectively support spot prices, and the downward resistance to prices is relatively small.
Supply and demand side: Overall, there is a pattern of loose supply and weak demand. In terms of supply, the industry’s operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is gradually accumulating. The pressure to ship has increased, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts to promote transactions has increased. In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream terminal industries has fallen short of expectations, with weak demand in mainstream application areas such as automobiles and general engineering plastics. Coupled with the current industry entering a traditional off-season, downstream factories are only maintaining rigid replenishment, and their willingness to purchase in large quantities is low. The overall market demand is difficult to boost, which continues to drag down the rise of PA66 market.
technical analysis
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st, with an average difference of -113.33 yuan/ton on June 14th. The average difference has narrowed from negative to widening again, indicating that the PA66 market continues to decline and the rate of decline has expanded again. The price has dropped from 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 19800 yuan/ton, which is below the annual median.
Future forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and a slight downward shift in focus. The overall trend will be dominated by a weak stalemate, and it is difficult for a significant rise or fall to occur. The bottom support of costs will limit the extent of market decline, but the short board on the supply and demand side is difficult to quickly repair, and the weak trend of downstream demand is difficult to reverse in the short term. The expected price range for PA66 in the near future is between 19500-20200 yuan/ton.
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