Market analysis for this week

This week, the price of magnesium ingots first rose and then fell. In the early part of the week, factories had a strong willingness to raise prices due to cost support. Coupled with the rise in raw material silicon iron prices, the falling magnesium price formed support. At the end of the week, some magnesium factories have loosened their quotations due to low market transactions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18666.67 yuan/ton, with a week on week increase of 0.90%.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, the factory quotation is relatively stable, with a clear attitude of price support. Currently, there have been no changes in production, and the magnesium factory is operating normally. Some factories have slightly adjusted their output. On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand, especially with low export order prices, which limits the upward trend of magnesium ingot prices.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6900-7100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% compared to last week. This week, despite the tight supply of spot goods by enterprises, increased market demand, and some support from the cost side, the market for ferrosilicon has been relatively strong, and the market quotation is also relatively firm.

This week, the national blue charcoal market experienced a slight fluctuation. Except for a few companies that raised the price of blue charcoal by 10-20 yuan/ton based on their own sales situation, the prices of most other companies remained stable; Under the influence of environmental factors such as the first round of decline in coke, the price of blue coke in the Xinjiang market has slightly declined, ranging from 10-30 yuan/ton, and the overall market price has shown fluctuations. As of May 24th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 840-980 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 610-680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 900-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 665-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, magnesium plants have been operating normally recently with sufficient supply, but the demand side has not shown significant growth, especially with the continuous rise in magnesium prices. Downstream transactions are not many, coupled with lower prices from overseas users and a lack of downstream demand support, resulting in poor upward momentum in magnesium prices. However, the price of raw materials such as ferrosilicon has risen, compressing the profit margins of magnesium factories. Based on cost considerations, manufacturers have no willingness to lower prices for shipment, and their quotations are relatively stable. It is expected that the metal magnesium market will operate steadily in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China fluctuated and fell this week (5.20-5.24). On May 24th, sulfur prices were at 1060.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% compared to 1086.67 yuan/ton on May 20th.

This week’s sulfur market is generally weak. The operation of refinery facilities in Shandong region is normal, with sufficient market supply and insufficient new orders in the terminal market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The shipment of sulfur refineries is hindered, and the decline in external sulfur prices has a negative impact on the domestic sulfur market. Some enterprises have continued to lower their purchasing prices to stimulate procurement. As of the 24th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 1050 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1000-1170 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily. On May 24th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 242.50 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 242.50 yuan/ton on May 20th. The domestic sulfuric acid market has remained stable with little movement, and the downstream compound fertilizer industry has average demand. The intention to purchase sulfuric acid is not high, and the demand for immediate follow-up is mainly high. Acid companies have poor shipments, but in some areas, equipment maintenance and low inventory have provided some support for sulfuric acid prices. Under the game of supply and demand, the sulfuric acid market is consolidating at a low level.

The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate showed a strong upward trend, with an average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on May 24th at 3056.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% compared to the price of 2983.33 yuan/ton on May 20th. The demand for ammonium phosphate summer fertilizer market has increased, and the market supply is tight. Many manufacturers have suspended orders and mainly executed pending orders. Market demand is improving, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to rise.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the current supply of sulfur in the market is stable, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is good. The increase in plant operation may improve the demand for sulfur, but at the same time, port inventory will also affect domestic sulfur procurement to a certain extent. The external price is low, and the rise of sulfur in refineries is limited. The mentality of on-site operators is conflicted, and it is expected that the short-term decline in sulfur prices will narrow. The market situation will remain stagnant and consolidated, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

This week, the atmosphere in the domestic polyvinyl alcohol market continued to be light. As of May 23, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol for Shengyishe was 12250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to the beginning of this month (12300.00 yuan/ton). During the week, the polyvinyl alcohol market was mainly driven by first-time transactions, while the expectation of transactions in the polyvinyl alcohol market weakened. Dealers offered more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions remained lackluster.

Supply side:

Recently, due to insufficient demand, the price of calcium carbide has been declining for a long time, resulting in an overall loss situation in the industry. As of May 23, the benchmark price of Shengyishe calcium carbide was 2833.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.73% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). Downstream unloading trucks still show a regional shortage of arrivals, but the upward momentum is weak. Firstly, it comes from the landing of downstream maintenance. In mid to late May, The maintenance of PVC and BDO is increasing gradually, and the demand for calcium carbide is weakening.

Recently, the price of acetic acid, the raw material for vinyl acetate, has been stable. As of May 23rd, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe is 3250.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The expected increase in supply side is due to the scarcity of planned maintenance information and sluggish downstream domestic demand, PTA partial maintenance, with enterprise maintenance in the northwest and east of vinyl acetate. Acetate is operated under reduced load based on cost and export factors.

Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) Industry Chain

On the demand side:

From the perspective of domestic demand for polyvinyl alcohol, polymerization additives, fabric slurries, adhesives, vinylon fibers, papermaking slurries and coatings, and building coatings products have weak consumption of raw materials. Enterprises mainly purchase on a per order basis, and the accumulation of raw material inventory is limited. Production is coming to an end, and the demand for raw materials is weakening. There is currently no good news for other terminal enterprises, and there is a slight room for concessions in the price of polyvinyl alcohol in the later stage.

Overall

The atmosphere of the polyvinyl alcohol market continues to be light, with downstream users maintaining a strong demand for purchases. The mentality of the cargo holders is empty, and the focus of negotiations is on the low-end. There is currently no positive support for the polyvinyl alcohol market, and it is expected that the polyvinyl alcohol market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7290.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55%. The current price has increased by 0.41% month on month, and has decreased by 13.11% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been mainly volatile and consolidating in the past three months, with a slight increase this week. There have been no new orders signed for potassium chloride border trade, and the domestic potassium chloride market remains strong at a high level. Downstream purchases of essential goods are maintained, and potassium carbonate manufacturers are scheduling shipments, resulting in a volatile upward trend in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7200-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

This week, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced high volatility. As of this weekend, potassium chloride has been offered at 2516 yuan/ton. The domestic potassium chloride market continues its previous consolidation trend, with a calm market performance. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the moderate arrival volume this month and the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic market, there has been no surplus situation in the market, and the price remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance mentality towards high prices, and the current market is in a weak season. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has remained strong at a high level, with strong cost support. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly rise in the short term. The long-term market still needs to be watched. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers across the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts from Business Society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.).

Price increase of neopentyl glycol enterprises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the price of neopentyl glycol was quoted at 10650 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.45% compared to the price of 10100 yuan/ton quoted on May 15. The quotation of neopentyl glycol enterprises has significantly increased, with strong cost support. The neopentyl glycol market is operating strongly, and the inventory of neopentyl glycol factories is low. Currently, orders are being scheduled until next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell spot goods, resulting in an increase in the price of neopentyl glycol in the market.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 8525 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 8.95% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7825 yuan/ton on May 13th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 11.44% to 7650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde has surged, supported by downstream demand, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship. The price of isobutyraldehyde has stabilized after rising.

Raw material formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 22nd, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1245 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% compared to the formaldehyde price of 1237.5 yuan/ton on May 15th; Compared to May 1st, the price of formaldehyde increased by 2.68% to 1212.50 yuan/ton. In May, the price of raw material methanol increased significantly, with strong cost support. Downstream purchases remained in demand, while formaldehyde prices followed the changes in methanol. Methanol prices remained stable at high levels, with strong cost support and fluctuating prices. Cost support, there is still momentum for the price increase of neopentyl glycol.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe believes that in terms of cost, formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde prices have fluctuated and risen, while the cost of new pentanediol has increased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol are relatively balanced, with low inventory in new pentanediol factories and tight supply on the market. Under the stimulation of buying up but not buying down, new pentanediol traders are reluctant to sell, and the support for the price increase of new pentanediol is increasing. Overall, the cost support for neopentyl glycol has weakened, neopentyl glycol manufacturers are reluctant to sell, neopentyl glycol supply is tight, and downstream demand support is limited. It is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol will remain strong and stable in the future.