According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market remained stable on June 13th, with an average price of 1.4D * 38mm at 7696 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the previous trading day. At present, traders have a shortage of spot goods and are reluctant to sell at high prices. In addition, short fiber factories in East China are changing their cotton production lines, resulting in a relatively tight supply of goods. The cost side support has weakened, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, with primary demand for goods and less market transactions. It is expected that the short-term spot supply will tighten, providing support for the price of polyester staple fibers, and the price is relatively resistant to decline.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 11th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 10362.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st of the month. The price of plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride remains strong and stable, while the price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises. The cost of plasticizer increases, and the profit of plasticizer DOP decreases. The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises decreases, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 11th, the quotation for isooctanol was 10140 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42% compared to the quotation of 9900 yuan/ton on June 1st. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated slightly and rose. Since the domestic isooctanol market bottomed out in mid April, the price center of isooctanol has slowly shifted upwards. Isooctanol manufacturers are limited in quantity and reluctant to sell, while downstream customers have a strong demand for purchases, which provides significant support for the rise of isooctanol.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. In the future, the supply of isooctanol will be tight, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol will still exist; The cost of raw materials has increased, downstream demand support has weakened, and the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8642 yuan/ton on June 3, and the average price on June 7 was 8628 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.17% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9962 yuan/ton on June 3, and the average price on June 7 was 10062 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.00% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8787 yuan/ton on June 3, and the average price on June 7 was 8762 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.28% in the quotation during this period.

The price of polyethylene has fluctuated this week. The quotation for high-voltage products is relatively strong, with prices showing an upward trend; Linear and low-voltage product quotations have weakened, with prices slightly rising towards the weekend. Supply: In May, the polyethylene plant was in a peak maintenance period, with a low on-site operating rate. Some product grades were affected by the previous shutdown and maintenance situation, resulting in tight supply and strong quotations. It is expected that the polyethylene parking and maintenance equipment will restart in June, with an increase in supply expectations. On the demand side, agricultural film enters the off-season of production; The operating rate of pipes has decreased; The overall follow-up of downstream orders is slow, with downstream rigid demand mainly being purchased and insufficient support for polyethylene. On the cost side, international crude oil prices have loosened, and polyethylene futures have been suppressed.

On June 7th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8528 yuan and closed at 8544 yuan, up 38 yuan, with a maximum of 8609 yuan and a minimum of 8523 yuan, up 0.45%. This week, polyethylene futures weakened first and rose slightly towards the weekend.

This week, petrochemical companies have a strong mentality of price support, with some varieties offering stronger prices and rising prices. Traders have slightly offered discounts to ship. Expected increase in supply side in June; The demand side is in the off-season, and the market demand is average; 4. In May, the price of polyethylene products continued to rise, and downstream resistance to high prices was strong. Market transactions were difficult to increase, and it is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate and weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline fell first and then rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price began to decline, and in the middle of the month, the price was relatively stable. After mid to late October, the price rebounded slightly, and at the end of the month, the price was relatively stable. On May 1st, the market price of aniline was 12292 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 12145 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month decreased by 1.19% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 11.29% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has been on the rise this month. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profitability is poor, and the price of styrene is in an upward trend, with a 1.53% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 8672 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 9120 yuan/ton, with a 5.16% increase compared to the beginning of the month and a 39.02% increase compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid rose first and then fell this month, with a slight increase before mid month and a slight decrease after mid month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1856 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 1830 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.4% compared to the beginning of the month and 9.98% compared to the same period last year.

In May of this year, the price of aniline increased slightly, with a slight decrease before mid month and a slight increase after mid month. The price remained relatively stable towards the end of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, the inventory of aniline factories is low, with no shipping pressure, and there is not much room for short-term decline. In addition, pure benzene continues to be relatively strong, which may bring upward momentum to aniline. It is expected that domestic aniline will remain stable and relatively strong in the next cycle.

Pure benzene: Yesterday, news of the East China factory speculating on the Lai plant continued to drive up prices, while Shandong Refinery reported an increase in prices. After the price increase, the market followed up normally, but due to low inventory levels in multiple factories, actual transactions fell short of expectations. The night trading of pure benzene reached around 9380 yuan/ton, and due to the completion of delivery in May, it is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the market today.

Recent trends in urea prices

In May, the overall domestic urea market showed a fluctuating upward trend. Affected by supply tightening and an increase in factory orders, urea prices have continued to rise, and the upward trend has continued until the third week after May Day. In the last week of May, the market stopped rising and slightly declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong Province increased from 2435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2493 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a growth rate of 2.36%.

From the supply side, the average operating rate of urea enterprises this month is less than 80%, and the daily production of urea in China is about 180000 tons, with supply slightly narrowing compared to last month. During the month, the mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong generally saw an increase in factory prices, with an overall increase or decrease of over 100 yuan/ton.

From the upstream market perspective:

Liquefied natural gas: The price of natural gas rose in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4414 yuan/ton, which is 4356 yuan/ton compared to the average price on May 1. The increase in domestic liquefied natural gas prices this month was 1.33%. High natural gas prices provide support for downstream urea production.

Coal: Coal has been operating strongly this month. Taking thermal coal as an example, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of thermal coal increased in May. The price of thermal coal in the port market has increased, and the daily consumption of power plants has basically returned to pre holiday levels. Especially in the latter half of the year, the price increase was driven by the rise in coal prices from production areas, resulting in an increase in port coal prices. It is also because as the temperature rises and the peak sales season arrives, downstream demand increases, driving up coal prices. Some traders have expectations for an increase in coal prices and are hesitant to sell, but actual downstream demand is limited. The overall price of thermal coal is currently fluctuating in the market. The upward trend in upstream coal prices provides support for the urea market.

Liquid ammonia: In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and rising, breaking out of a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a growth rate of 3.91% in May. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3000-3200 yuan/ton. The rising price of liquid ammonia provides support for the downstream urea market.

From the perspective of downstream demand: the peak season of agricultural demand has been postponed, while industrial demand is average. Downstream demand for replenishment continues. The production of compound fertilizers is advancing, and there is a high demand for agricultural fertilizers in central and eastern China. The surplus temperature during the peak demand season has not yet subsided. Support the maintenance of relatively high levels of urea prices. The shipment volume of urea manufacturers is at a high level, with prices generally rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the price on May 1st.

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, some devices are expected to start production and there is room for improvement in production. It is expected that the daily urea production will continue to rise next week, so it is not ruled out that the supply will increase in the future. However, considering the current low inventory rate of manufacturers, the supply pressure will be relatively eased in the short term.

On the demand side, agricultural demand remains primarily in demand, with an increase or decrease in demand due to a decrease in downstream compound fertilizer production rates and a slowdown in downstream delivery. In addition, the agricultural fertilizer preparation node has not yet arrived, and the next two weeks are in a period of agricultural demand gap, and the centralized procurement period has not yet arrived.

Taking all factors into consideration, the recent increase in urea prices lacks momentum, and it is not ruled out that there may be a possibility of price decline.