Put forward the energy, people think of is often coal, oil, gas ignited the torch and not cold ice, but the Chinese science and technology workers can already be hidden in the bottom of the “ice” lit into the burning flame, let “Frost” from the dream into reality. From May 10, a steady stream of natural gas from more than 1200 meters deep under the bottom of more than 200 meters in the bottom of the mining up, lit the world’s largest offshore drilling platform, “Blue Whale One” spit fire device. This is the first time in China, but also the world’s first account for more than 90% of the amount of resources, the development of the most difficult muddy silt type reservoir combustible ice successfully achieved test mining. This test is not only for China’s future energy security, optimize the energy structure is of great significance, and may even give the world to replace the R & D investment pattern changes. However, China’s commercial development of combustible ice is still very far away.

China ‘s first sea combustible ice test success.

Ministry of Land and Resources Minister Jiang Daming announced on May 18, May 10, China from the South China Sea Shenhu waters depth of 1266 meters below the bottom of the river 203-277 meters of natural gas hydrate (also known as “combustible ice”) mineral To achieve a steady flow of 187 hours of continuous gas.

Jiang Daming said that this means that for the first time in China, it is the first time in the world to account for more than 90% of the amount of resources, the development of the most difficult muddy silt type reservoir combustible ice to achieve successful trial mining.

In this regard, Xiamen University, China Energy Policy Research Institute Lin Boqiang analysis of reporters, which is China and the global combustible ice mining history of a major event, but this is only test mining, rather than industrialization and commercial exploitation. Its main significance is to re-evoke the global attention to the combustible ice and attention to attract more countries combustible ice mining technology investment and research.

Ministry of Homeland China Geological Survey Deputy Director Li Jinfa is expected by 2030 years ago, China will achieve combustible ice commercial development.

The first test more than expected

The so-called combustible ice is geologically called natural gas hydrate (Natural Gas Hydrate), a kind of water molecules and gas molecules composed of ice-like cage inclusions, from which can be separated from methane (ie natural gas).

Because combustible ice is like ice, it is called ice, and because it can be lit as solid alcohol, it is called “combustible ice”.

According to the more consistent resource evaluation of scientists, the global natural gas reserves of 2 × 10 ^ 16 cubic meters, is the remaining natural gas reserves (1.56 × 10 ^ 14 cubic meters) of 128 times, is the most popular unconventional natural gas resources (923 Trillion cubic meters) of more than 20 times, the prospects are broad, because it is called “belongs to the future energy”. And even scientists have suggested that only the bottom of the combustible ice reserves, enough to use 1000 years of human use.

Specific to China, the South China Sea is the most important distribution area of ​​combustible ice in China, and it is also the region with the best prospecting area for combustible ice mineralization and prospecting.

The South China Sea Shenhu sea gas hydrate test by the Ministry of Land and Resources China Geological Survey is responsible for, PetroChina Group under the China Petroleum and Ocean Engineering Company is the pilot of the mining contractor.

In 2016, the geological survey staff around the trial in the Shenhu sea area to carry out drilling stations 8, all found combustible ice.

“In March 2016, we officially began preparing for the combustible ice test, when the drilling time was set on March 28, 2017,” said Qiu Haijun, deputy director of the foundation of the China Geological Survey, It ‘s impossible to finish the task on time, if it’ s not going to be hard to accumulate the amount of geological data.

China Geological Survey Bureau of Guangzhou Ocean Geological Survey Bureau of mineral hydrate room director, trial production project implementation project leader Lu Jingan introduction, exploration shows, God Fox has 11 ore body, an area of ​​128 square kilometers, resource reserves of 150 billion cubic meters , Equivalent to 150 million tons of oil reserves.

As of May 18 at 10 o’clock, the cumulative gas production of more than 120,000 cubic meters, the highest output of 35,000 cubic meters / day, the average daily production of 16,000 cubic meters, of which methane content up to 99.5%, exceeding the expected target.

This marks the success of our first attempt to mine. In this regard, Li Jinfa explained that the so-called successful trial mining, the first daily test to take the gas to reach more than 10,000 cubic meters, the second is a continuous gas production week. All of our indicators exceed the target. So our country is the world’s natural gas hydrate development success of the first country.

Previously, Japan in 2013 in Aichi Prefecture southeast of the trough for combustible ice test mining, but due to sand and other technical problems in the first six days after the forced to stop in 6 days time to extract 120,000 cubic meters of natural gas The In April 2017, Japan in the same sea for a second test, the first test wells accumulated production of 35,000 cubic meters, May 15 again due to the problem of sand and stop gas production.

The so-called sand, that is, oil and gas wells in the production process, due to excessive production pressure, sandstone oil and gas layer rock loose and other reasons, so that the formation of sand into the wellbore, blocking oil and gas channels, causing oil and gas wells to stop production of the phenomenon.

In this regard, the Guangzhou Ocean Geological Survey, former chief engineer Huang Yongxiang analysis of the reporter, “compared to Japan in the trial when the test reservoir encountered a fine sand problem, we are more lucky. Our test reservoir is mainly small Muddy silt, it is easy to filter out, will not plug the outlet pipe.

Huang Yongxiang explained that from the level of technical equipment, we are synchronized with the world, but there is no good reason to say that our technical equipment level must be higher than Japan.

The road to commercial exploitation is still far away

It is noteworthy that this test is done safely and environmentally friendly, and safety and environmental issues are often considered a major challenge for combustible ice mining.

The test plan, on the one hand, according to the hydrate area submarine topography features, engineering geological features, hydrate reservoir characteristics, through the rational design of the well position and step-down program, from the engineering design to avoid the occurrence of methane leakage caused by the environment Problems and disaster problems.

On the other hand, through the laying of submarine terrain, gas leakage and other monitoring equipment, to build a seawater – seabed – underground integrated environmental safety monitoring system to achieve the temperature, pressure, methane concentration and seabed stability parameters of real-time, the whole process of monitoring.

In this regard, the Ministry of Homeland China Geological Survey bureau bell said that the success of this combustible ice test success, on the one hand, we can test the early formation of the theoretical technology and equipment system of scientific; the other hand, through the large-scale professional high The difficulty of joint scientific and technological research, can prompt the technical staff to quickly grasp the deep sea entry, deep sea exploration and deep sea development technology to promote the commercial development of combustible ice resources in the process.

“The success of this test can only be regarded as a success, in accordance with the daily production capacity of more than 10,000 cubic meters is successful.If it is 20,000 cubic meters per day or higher target, whether it can do safe production and environment-friendly , There are still a lot of uncertainty. “Lin Boqiang analysis.

Li Jinfa said the next step, the mining team will continue in the vicinity of the waters of 2-3 different mining areas and types of mining work, the accumulation of experience for the 2030 years ago to lay the foundation for combustible ice commercial development.

Huang Yongxiang introduced, in general, in a test reservoir to achieve the expected production time and production of the test objectives, will not continue to put into trial mining. Although this is not announced the cost of trial mining, but is expected to invest a large scale.

It is worth noting that China’s combustible ice development prospects. According to the “China Energy and Mineral Geological Survey” released in 2016, China’s combustible ice predicts that the prospect of resources is over 100 billion tons of oil equivalent and attractive.

The data show that China’s combustible ice is mainly distributed in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost and the northeastern permafrost.

According to the rough estimate of China Petroleum, the amount of resources is about 64.97 × 10 ^ 12 cubic meters, 3.38 × 10 ^ 12 cubic meters, 12.5 × 10 ^ 12 cubic meters and 2.8 × 10 ^ 12 cubic meters.

Among them, the South China Sea northern slope of the amount of combustible ice reached 18.5 billion tons of oil equivalent, equivalent to the South China Sea deepwater exploration has proven oil and gas reserves of 6 times, to 50% of China’s total land oil.

“Our combustible ice mining equipment and technology to be a breakthrough, the future but also the development of specialized combustible ice mining technology and drilling equipment and to prevent methane leakage and seabed collapse of the technology.” Huang Yongxiang analysis.

Lin Boqiang pointed out that the combustible ice commercial road is still relatively far away, which is the success of the test and did not cause great repercussions in the international one of the reasons, because we all know that combustible ice commercialization of the difficulty of large.

Academician Jin Qinghao of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, once at the Second Energy Forum held by the National Energy Board and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that based on the current situation of combustible ice research and technical reserves in China, combined with the progress of foreign combustible ice test, Ice mining technology and equipment breakthroughs to complete the industrialization of combustible ice started, before and after 2030 may be able to achieve the commercialization of combustible ice.

Data show that the mainstream of the international combustible ice development methods, mainly thermal excitation method, decompression method, the actual chemical injection method, solid mining method, carbon dioxide conversion method and a variety of development mode combination, but these methods still exist low production efficiency , Mining conditions demanding, all materials are expensive and the risk of environmental problems, need to be further improved.

“Combustible ice development technology and equipment is a future-oriented reserve, and a country alone is a fundamental breakthrough, and it is only possible to achieve qualitative change when more and more countries are joining the combustible ice technology.” Lin Boqiang analysis.

Recently, domestic and foreign (meth) acrylic acid and its ester production unit running situation is slightly poor, and the overall domestic supply side has not significantly ample, related products at home and abroad overall social stock low, the market supply continued low background under. Domestic acrylic and its esters as a whole market coverage atmosphere is frequent, low-end supply is hard to find. Affected by the shortage of acrylic supply market price, its related downstream products, hydroxyethyl acrylate (HEA) also showed a positive upward trend.

The recent domestic and international acrylic and its ester plant operating load rate is low, Shandong Kai Tai new plant, CNOOC and other acrylic and its ester plant parking, Ningbo Formosa a set of acrylic device parking, Jiangsu Miki acrylic and its ester plant to drive For the use of the main, real sales volume is rare, and the recent Yangtze BASF, Arkema, satellite petrochemical and other production enterprises are very rare real estate sales are rare. Overall, the recent domestic acrylic equipment to maintain 4 to 5 into the loading load rate, the market supply side of the sharp tight, a local area is difficult to find a single transaction level continued to run tight trend, the market price continued high. In addition to the domestic device to maintain low-load operation, the foreign device is also frequent failure, May 16, the United States of America BASF Texas Freeport of butyl acrylate equipment failure accidental parking. By the supply side continued tight influence, the domestic acrylic market prices continued high finishing operation trend, low prices difficult to find.

As of May 19, the domestic acrylic acid mainstream offer price to reach 7600-7800 yuan / ton, the domestic mainstream acrylic acid offer price of 7800 yuan / ton in the vicinity. The overall position of the social inventory, the market brokers Chaosheng heard the frequency is now, acrylic secondary market offer price approaching 8,000 yuan / ton mark, although the period from May to June, for the acrylic products downstream of the traditional sales off-season, however In the cost of increasing pressure on the background, the corresponding downstream products corresponding to the rise is not impossible.

To hydroxyethyl acrylate, hydroxypropyl acrylate as the representative of the downstream terminal industry cost pressures increased, the market price has been correspondingly uplift, and the late or may continue to rise.

As the supply of raw materials, acrylic market is tight, the market price continues to rise high run. The recent domestic production of hydroxyethyl acrylate, hydroxypropyl acrylate and other raw materials, the cost of raw materials more and more pressure. Many downstream end-users understand the price of raw materials or will continue high, so the recent increase in hydroxyethyl acrylate, hydroxypropyl acrylate and other products in the actual procurement. So the recent time, China’s domestic hydroxyethyl acrylate, hydroxypropyl acrylate and other production orders more and more good, the overall social stock more low, and even many manufacturers have been arranged to order in June. As the order situation to the good and raw material prices continued high, many recent brokers have raised their actual offer price.

Many people in the industry even said that as the market price of ethylene oxide continued high steady operation, and later still do not rule out the possibility of rising. While the acrylic production plant installed low load, the market supply scarce, the market price of active climbing. So the domestic hydroxyethyl acrylate, hydroxypropyl acrylate and other raw materials cost of raw materials or will continue to increase, so do not rule out the late market prices or will continue to maintain the possibility of high pull up.

Since February this year, iron ore prices all the way down from the end of February more than 90 US dollars / ton, down to now less than 60 US dollars / ton, the market downturn.

Since 2000, iron ore rose and fell, the pit is the worst of China, today, “Mining” from the time dimension to talk about iron ore situation, on iron ore, looks more like a Western country Set a huge bureau to China.

From the beginning of the 1980s to the beginning of the 21st century, the international iron ore prices remained relatively stable for a long period of time, maintained at 20 US dollars / ton, but since 2004, the international iron ore prices rose straight.

The reason is mainly “China special needs”. Since 2003, the domestic iron ore supply and demand gap is growing, the scale of iron ore imports also expanded accordingly, in 2004, China surpassed Japan to become the largest international iron ore trade buyers, “China special needs” began to become iron Main factors of ore price changes.

Japan was the largest buyer of international iron ore trade. The three mines were the largest sellers of international iron ore trade. During the period from 1980 to 2001, the Quartet has been leading the development of international iron ore prices.

In 2004, after China became the largest buyer of international iron ore trade, Baosteel began to participate in the Asian iron ore price negotiations as the world’s largest iron ore importer, China’s steel industry, but in Baosteel’s ambitious participation Asian iron ore price negotiations, the price of iron ore began to rise every year, simply unable to suppress.

At this time, Japan began to encroach on the upper reaches of iron ore, shares of the three mines, Japan’s Mitsui property has Brazil Valepar SA company (CVRD parent company) 18.24% stake, is behind the scenes decision-makers in Australia, 24 major iron ore, Japan The company has invested in 8 mines and 16 participating companies. Mitsui and Rio Tinto jointly owned two mines in the Newman area of ​​Western Australia (Xi’an Giras Mine and Rob River Mine). Mitsui and BHP Billiton jointly owned five mines, such as MAC Iron Mine.

Overall, from 2003 to 2014, while China’s demand for iron ore at the same time, iron ore prices soared to the three major iron ore giants led by the Western countries, iron ore companies and Japan earned pots full.

At this stage, the Chinese government and enterprises in the fundamentally overwhelmed the rise in iron ore prices in the context of a number of measures taken to dilute the cost, such as the shares of upstream enterprises (9.3% stake in Chinalco shares, Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Stake in FMG, Minmetals acquisition of Australia OZ) and the acquisition of iron ore mines (Western Australia really easy to process the hematite project is basically not open to Chinese enterprises, the choice of food is more difficult to choose the magnetite).

And in China to learn from Japan, into the upper reaches of iron ore trade, 2013, the ore prices began to fall, the Chinese enterprises have purchased the project will continue to develop shelves and huge losses.

From the time dimension, the past few years, China’s leading demand, ore prices rose, the upper reaches of the big profits, when China began to participate in pricing, but “lack of confidence,” simply can not suppress the price rise, Ore suddenly fell, the upstream project shelved, the loss intensified.

It now appears that the number of overseas iron ore project in China there is a blind phenomenon, blind purchase, the future trend of iron ore is not clear (China iron ore pricing power urgent need to upgrade, otherwise China can only be routines), as well as overseas Project experience is insufficient, the overall cause of the embarrassing situation.

Since 2000, 16 years, the Western countries to dig a big pit, China did not hesitate to jump.

Fundamentals did not improve significantly

After the Spring Festival, PVC prices fell significantly, until the middle of April the largest decline of 21.8%. Since then, although the PVC rebounded, but the weak pattern is not completely reversed. In terms of the second quarter, the supply and demand pattern has the potential for improved stage, but the degree of improvement also limits the upstream height. Therefore, the trend of PVC up and down are limited.

New pattern of supply and demand pattern

First, capacity growth slowed down, supply and demand improved. Beginning in 2013, PVC industry began to self-repair capacity, then capacity decline year after year. Chlor-Alkali Industry Association data show that 2016 domestic PVC production capacity decreased by 220,000 tons, including new capacity of 890,000 tons, out of capacity of 1.11 million tons; production growth rate of 3.5%, demand growth rate of about 1%, supply and demand gradually from the imbalance For balance. According to statistics, this year plans to 2.96 million tons of PVC plant put into operation, but the actual production capacity may be less than expected. Late, the industry itself and the guidance of the policy will continue to play a role in the regulation, supply and demand continued to improve the possibility of a larger, less likely to take the blind expansion of the old road.

Second, from a net importer to a net exporter, exports become a new bright spot in demand. 2016 domestic net exports of 389,000 tons of PVC, the continuation of the net export pattern since 2014; from January to March this year, net exports of 123,300 tons, 2016 net exports over the same period 69,600 tons, net exports expanded year on year. According to UBS forecast, China 2017, 2018 PVC exports will account for the global PVC trade volume of 1.5%, 1.6%. Although the total export volume is not large, but the growth trend will constitute a certain positive support for PVC demand.

Third, the stage of supply and demand contradiction still exist. PVC season in the second quarter will reduce short-term supply, and the traditional demand for a rebound in the supply and demand there is a stage to improve the potential. However, the second quarter of the maintenance efforts year on year poor performance, social stocks are still high year on year, thus suppressing the ring to improve the positive.

Chlor-alkali imbalance again

Beginning in the second half of 2016, the situation of chlor-alkali imbalance re-emerged. The fourth quarter of 2016, caustic soda downstream alumina market volume and price go up, driving demand for caustic soda, caustic soda prices rose gradually since September. Data show that the fourth quarter of 2016 caustic soda production increased by 14.3% year on year, a 6-year high year on year growth rate, the same period caustic soda (32% ion membrane) prices from 690 yuan / ton to 970 yuan / ton, an increase of about 40% Substrate (≥96%) price increase is more than 30%.

In the fourth quarter of 2016, in the calcium carbide prices higher, traffic and environmental factors such as boost, PVC also appeared in the stage of volume and price Qi Sheng situation, industry profits have also been greatly improved, the overall profitability of the caustic soda industry showed a high level The However, did not last long, this year, PVC production growth has not been effectively digested. With the calcium carbide prices and caustic soda industry, high yield, PVC production continues to increase and prices continue to fall trend. With the decline in production profits of PVC, Shandong liquid chlorine market prices once appeared 400-600 yuan / ton of the situation, the caustic soda enterprises “to fill the chlorine” state.

In the short term, the caustic soda industry is driven by high profits, maintaining a high operating rate. Although the chlor-alkali plant maintenance in May increased, the output has declined, but the amount of downstream alumina is still relatively large, more aggressive procurement, liquid alkali prices to maintain high oscillation is more likely. Therefore, the short-term supply and demand in the case of chlor-alkali imbalance, PVC supply increased pressure on the price still exist, the price rise can only hope that the cost of boost and improve the consumption.

Support force still exists

In the long term, PVC is not too pessimistic. First of all, the cost of support or still have room to play. Calcium carbide prices since the beginning of the year has continued to decline in late April began to pick up (the beginning of the domestic average price of calcium carbide from 2830 yuan / ton all the way down to mid-April 2430 yuan / ton, the recent price rose 80-100 yuan / ton ).

Second, the seasonal consumption recovery has started. From the social inventory point of view, after the middle of April, PVC total inventory began to decline from 315,000 tons in mid-May to 27 million tons, although still higher than the 2016 stock in the same period 28.5%, but the downward trend More obvious. As the annual April to September is the PVC to the inventory stage, is expected under the action of the seasonal laws, the inventory pressure to ease the stage, the downstream consumption chain to improve the trend of the same.

Finally, in the long run, with the electrolytic aluminum industry to further promote the supply side of the structural reform is expected, do not rule out the deepening of the policy, alumina market capacity and demand decline, thereby reducing the demand for caustic soda. If the slowdown in demand for caustic soda, chlor-alkali industry operating rate decline, will ease the supply of PVC pressure. In this way, there will be a potential impact on the impact of PVC, but the specific extent of the policy is still subject to the implementation of the situation. For example, according to 1 ton of alumina corresponding to 0.241 tons of caustic soda demand, assuming that electrolytic aluminum production capacity by 5 million tons, corresponding to 9.75 million tons of alumina and 2.34 million tons of caustic soda demand, this part of caustic soda accounted for about 6% of total capacity.

Based on the above analysis, the second quarter of the late, PVC will continue the interval oscillation pattern, but the oscillation center of gravity is expected to move slightly, the price of 5300-5400 yuan / ton have some support, and the first target in the 6200 yuan / ton nearby.

Market research firm AlliedMarketResearch, a new report shows that the global nano-coating market in 2020 is expected to reach 13.094 billion US dollars, 2016 – 2022 annual compound annual growth rate of 21.0%.

Nano-coated nanomaterials are used as substrates, and these coatings provide weather resistance to protect the surface of the coating from deterioration. High-tech nano-coating is not only non-toxic harmless, but also can slowly release a substance, degradation of indoor formaldehyde, xylene and other harmful substances.

From the type of view, the function of nano-coating is different: anti-fingerprint, antibacterial, easy to clean and anti-fouling, self-cleaning (bionic and photocatalytic), anti-icing, anti-corrosion, conductive, UV, wear resistance, chemical resistance Erosion and so on.

From the application point of view, nano-coating covers the electronics, energy, food and packaging, construction, marine industry, military defense, automotive, aerospace, health care and other fields. The automotive industry has maintained the highest growth rate, while the Asia-Pacific market, the rising demand for cars, but also gives a good nano-coating market environment. The marine shipbuilding industry is the biggest potential to develop the market – the fouling caused by microbial growth will burn 40% of excess fuel, causing losses of up to £ 5 million per year.

From the geographical point of view, Brazil, Argentina and other Latin American countries accounted for the highest share of market revenue (51%). Latin America has a wealth of raw materials, harbor transport convenience, the automotive and aerospace industry investment is also expanding.

Strengthening technology research and development is the key force in the global nano-coating market, and now enterprises have developed ultra-thin nano-protective coating, both environmentally friendly and non-toxic, and has excellent anti-ultraviolet, durability and other properties. The United States is also developing the fourth generation of nano-technology coatings, it is understood that these nanotechnology coatings may become a military stealth paint to help fighters to achieve shaking reversal. In addition, the cost of nano-coating than the average paint reduction of 20% -30%, for the development of furniture, home appliances industry is also very helpful.