The National Bureau of statistics data released in January 20th, 2016 December, above scale industrial added value increased by 6% real growth last month growth of 0.46%. Among them, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 3.1%.

Divided into three categories, in December, the mining industry added value fell by 2.5%, the manufacturing sector grew by 6.3%, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry growth of 8%.

Type of economy, the increase in December, the state-owned holding enterprises grew by 6.4%; collective enterprises fell by 11.7%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.5%, 5.2% growth in foreign investment enterprises and taiwan.

In terms of industries, in December, 41 major industries have 33 industry added value to keep up. Among them, Agro food processing industry increased by 5.7%, 2.2% growth in the textile industry, growth of 3.1% chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry grew 4.7%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 13.1%, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell 0.8%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%, special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8%. 16.2% growth in the automotive industry, railway, marine, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 1.9%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.5%, electricity, heat production and supply industry grew 7.7%.

Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Market forecast

Due to the low for good support, the current high prices to have a negative impact on refinery shipments to. As prices continue to rise, downstream businesses will inevitably breed resentment. Civil gas and other related market rally has good convergence, low for propane was also gradually consumed in the short term, if no new positive, expected upward pressure on domestic propane market will gradually increase, the latter will gradually stabilize. Continue to focus on specific market dynamics.

This week weekend propane price is 4357 yuan / ton, the market down, down 3.41%.

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: due to the low price for good support, at present no negative impact on refinery shipments. But as prices continue to rise, downstream businesses will inevitably breed resentment. Civil gas and other related market rally has good convergence, low for propane was also gradually consumed.

The industrial chain: from the demand point of view, relying on the advantage of the pressure of the propane as everyone knows in winter is so popular, on the one hand, propane resources in northeast region of strong absorptive capacity, without considering the impact factors of inlet, domestic propane free sales; on the other hand, especially along the South market and Southern China area in the region less, many manufacturers follow the civil actively adjust, local high prices, more beneficial to the positive trend of the propane market.

Industry: imported, Saudi Aramco announced in January CP, the crude oil market optimistic expectations and winter in the northern hemisphere needs good support shamei CP ushered in the boom. Propane is 435 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 55 U.S. dollars / ton; butane 495 dollars / ton, compared with last month rose 75 U.S. dollars / ton. About the goods or propane landed cost of 3570 yuan / ton, 4050 yuan / ton butane.

Industrial chain: crude oil, the international energy agency believes that global excess supply situation is eased, and crude oil futures rebounded, the dollar fell also supported oil market atmosphere. But the U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, the international price of oil is limited. As of Friday (January 20th) the New York Mercantile Exchange in February WTI crude oil contract closing price of 52.42 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 1.05 U.S. dollars / barrel; London Intercontinental Exchange, March Brent crude contract closing price of 55.49 U.S. dollars / barrel, up $1.33 / barrel; propylene market scope, market transport restrictions such as holidays, the factory will offer steady, discuss turnover decreased significantly, buying part of on-demand procurement; near the end of the year, the downstream market of butyl stocking positive market sentiment improved.

Market forecast:

The current domestic n-butanol factory equipment operating rate is normal, the market atmosphere of peace, before and after the Spring Festival holiday mainstream manufacturers orders sales have been ahead of schedule, inventory slightly nervous, even a tight supply situation; the east port of supply side stability. Next week is the Spring Festival approaching, n-butanol market will continue the consolidation operation, price fluctuation co..

This week domestic n-butanol market consolidation operation, mainstream manufacturers offer a slight increase; as of Friday (January 20th), the domestic butanol ex factory price of 6120 yuan / ton, rose 1.07% this week to three months for a cycle or 5.34%.

Market analysis:

Macro: in December 2016, the business community of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) were 0.49, rose to 5.39%, reflecting the monthly manufacturing economy last month was the expansion of the state economy, rising trend evident.

Product: this week butanol narrow market consolidation, the overall offer slightly raised 100 yuan / ton. To discuss the Shandong mainstream market week 6100-6200 yuan / ton; Jiangsu and n-butanol mainstream market offer 6300-6400 yuan / ton.