Early in March, the market decline in the market, the price slightly down, the stock began to accumulate; and April, is undoubtedly the process of increasing supply and demand contradictions; May, it is the full outbreak of price war, the market Heard. Nearly two months, ammonium chloride market continued to slump, in the down the road farther and farther, it is difficult to look back.

The current market decline in the ammonium chloride market is difficult to stop, while the soda ash market has experienced a sharp decline in the first quarter after entering the market decline in the market was narrowed, due to the drag of ammonium chloride market, the base enterprises began to suffer losses, ammonium chloride , Soda ash under the dual pressure, the base manufacturers do not intend to continue to cut prices. From mid-April, central and eastern China, some manufacturers of light base offer began to narrow a narrow range of 20-30 yuan / ton, the base of the enterprise aimed at the price of impairment. But from the cost, the base of the enterprise has begun to lose money, while the price of ammonium chloride also fell to a record low.

Union enterprises already losses, can no longer look at the stock up, the price fell. What should I do to save our ammonium chloride?

(A) limited production reduction

Union enterprises overhaul or loss of state, to maintain a normal and stable production of a small number of manufacturers. It is reported that the current market price of more than 100 tons of ammonium chloride stocks, individual manufacturers over 10 million tons of inventory. At present, downstream fertilizer companies due to the continuous callback of urea, some small and medium enterprises to promote the transaction, low-end prices re-released. In general, the compound fertilizer business warehouse more than in the middle of this month, but taking into account the continued decline in urea, corn acreage reduction, the reduction in demand and other factors, do not rule out some of the compound fertilizer business or early clearing, Ammonium purchase is limited. In the case of weak demand, some enterprises will increase their willingness to limit production, individual enterprises have begun to overhaul, for some time, the market shipping pressure will be slightly reduced.

(B) ammonium chloride exports

The domestic market continued to slump, so many manufacturers and traders began to find a new way out. From the export of ammonium chloride in March can be seen that exports are the first choice for many manufacturers and traders. According to customs statistics show: in March 2017 exports of ammonium chloride 140,400 tons, the export amount of 10,984,400 US dollars, the average price of 78 US dollars / ton. Exports increased by 153% qoq, an increase of 57%. Although the export price slightly down, but the domestic market continued to weaken, some dealers will still shift the focus to exports. Accompanied by the current manufacturers to limit the pace of limited production, exports to a certain extent, ease the pressure on the domestic market.

Also looking for export-positive particles of ammonium chloride, dry ammonium downstream products, the current northeast, Henan and other places have been reduced to the end of this month, the domestic demand for particulate ammonium chloride will basically end, some manufacturers And even the equipment has been shut down, but there are some manufacturers in order to transfer the pressure of ammonium chloride, the focus of ammonium chloride particles from the domestic transfer to exports.

On the whole, the current ammonium chloride market is not entirely good, but the face of severe market, these positive support for the market is limited, negative factors still dominate. It is expected that May ammonium chloride market is hard to change, will continue to run weak.

Asphalt spot market after a wave of decline after the current to maintain consolidation. The current downstream road project has not been focused on the start, the demand is still limited, mostly in the main inventory consumption, traders buying enthusiasm is not high, refinery inventory growth, mostly price sales. The market need to pay attention to whether the demand in late May after the start, from the disk point of view, backed by 2400 yuan / ton support, 1709 contracts have long opportunities to do more.

Inventory slightly higher

Since the beginning of the year, the asphalt refinery operating rate as a whole is low, the first quarter operating rate of only about 50%, at historically low; but since April, the refinery started to pick up, especially in mid-April operating rate rose to 60% ; But in early May fell again to about 50%. Data show that as of May 3 the week, the major domestic asphalt refinery operating rate of 56%. Among them, the South China, Southwest and Northwest region operating rates are about 70%, which is better with the needs of the western region is directly related to the Northeast and the operating rate of about 60%; Yangtze River Delta and Shandong operating rates are about 50%. Overall, the recent domestic asphalt refinery started short-term recovery, but the overall is still not high, is expected in late May after the demand improved, the refinery start level is expected to further rise.

On the other hand, the refinery started to pick up but the demand did not follow up, traders demand for procurement decline, resulting in refinery inventories began to increase from the beginning of April, as of May 3 week, refinery stocks increased to 34% Regional stocks increased to about 40%, northeast, Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta region increased to about 35% of the stock, Northwest stocks increased to about 25%.

Asphalt refinery profits rise

This year, as oil prices fell and asphalt prices rose, asphalt and crude oil prices are also rising, which means that the refinery profits compared with 2016 is also improved. According to the statistics of the river, the first quarter asphalt refinery profitability, theoretical profits continue to improve, to the beginning of May theoretical profit reached 392 yuan / ton, the overall higher than last year’s profit level. But we believe that the late refinery profits difficult to have greater room for growth, because the third quarter crude oil trend is expected to be strong, and the asphalt is difficult to have a larger upside, so the refinery profits are expected to increase is limited.

Demand in the western region is bright

In the near future, infrastructure projects in the western region have been started to reduce the demand for asphalt terminals. The demand for asphalt in the western region has continued to rise. The refinery inventory in the northwest and southwest regions has been lower, traders and owners have increased demand for high quality asphalt. But the demand for other regions is still relatively limited, the lower road construction projects started less, traders increased inventories, refinery shipping pressure. In addition, South China and Southwest and other places affected by rainfall, the project construction is difficult to effectively carry out, to suppress the market will. In the case of poor overall market demand situation, the refinery may still increase the recent efforts to promote the shipments, but the overall price range is expected to not be too much. In the future, we expect the overall market demand in May to be improved in April, with particular attention to whether there will be substantial changes in asphalt demand since mid to late May.

March imports of asphalt has increased

Since late March, imports of asphalt prices have changed the previous situation, South Korea and Singapore imported asphalt are down. Singapore asphalt May cargo two major brand prices are down, CIF fell 17.5 yuan / ton to 345-360 yuan / ton, the dutiable value of 2800-2950 yuan / ton. South Korea asphalt cargo prices in May there are different rates of decline, the East China CIF fell to 295-320 US dollars / ton, dutiable value in the 2550-2700 yuan / ton, low prices and parts of East China asphalt prices basically flat. In March, domestic imports of asphalt increased over the previous two months, imports in March more than 400,000 tons, much higher than the import level in January and February.

China’s urea is facing increased production, domestic agriculture (pay attention: just agriculture) to reduce demand and exports to reduce the three major negative factors, there are other negative factors? If not, the above has been analyzed before the two factors, Of the analysis to be a simple review: First, the decline in corn planting area brought about by the largest reduction in the amount of urea will not exceed 1.5 million tons; Second, the export will not significantly decline in the case, even if the urea operating rate returned to 70% , It is also difficult to ensure that the supply of domestic summer. Analyze the last question today: late exit.

I do not do international trade, so the discussion of this issue a little bit of the ax, but several phenomena worthy of attention: First, the United States and India, a substantial reduction in urea imports; Second, India’s first round of bidding this year, only to recruit 260,000 tons; After the end of a round of bidding, immediately announced a new round of bidding; Fourth, the international market more than a big reversal of the vacancy.

From the US Department of Agriculture published planting intention report, the United States this year will face the adjustment of planting structure: corn, wheat and rice area decreased, while the cotton and soybean area increased, the overall acreage changed little. US agriculture is highly marketed and the statistics are more credible, so use this report to predict global demand changes, believing that readers will not have much objection. In this report, the author explained the following: First, China’s past storage and storage of agricultural products are the lowest in the current global price, in addition to the price of agricultural products is not bad; Second, although the domestic prices are talking about agricultural prices caused by fertilizer demand But the global acreage will not be significantly reduced this year; third is in the relatively high degree of market-oriented countries, in addition to increasing the soybean and cotton Area, the sugar planted area will increase significantly, which may be Brazil’s urea imports increased over the same period last year, the reasons for the increase.

So why is the US imports of urea significantly reduced? I believe that there may be three reasons: the increase in production, demand reduction and panic a little delay. The author lacks specific data, but it is certain that the new production is 100,000 tons, the demand is reduced by one hundred thousand tons, while the import reduction is one million tons, so the gap can only be delayed by the price to delay the procurement to explain. Time has arrived in April, rigid demand is about to release, taking into account the shipping period, procurement time is running out. In fact, last week the US market has shown signs of bottoming up, but a slap in the face, another look at another big importer – India.

Some people say that India’s high inventory, ask, high library in the first round of the tender just after the end of the second round of bidding will be held? Some people say that last year, India’s urea sales fell by nearly 3 million tons, which is equivalent to India’s annual sales 10%, due to agricultural prices caused by the decline in planting area so much? Reference to the US Department of Agriculture report analysis, the demand is significantly less likely to reduce; is the cause of the weather is unlikely, so I suggest a larger May be less than when farmers do not buy fat, so it seems high circulation channels. If this is the case, once India’s demand erupted, not only to make up for the pre-import gap, but also to meet the normal year of the purchase, which will create India’s history, the largest amount of urea procurement year, I even optimistic to believe that India Procurement can support the global market in the first half of the degree! India can not wait to tender, may mean that India officially opened to buy buy buy model!

Unfortunately, the international market after the Spring Festival more than empty, the trend seems to be the same as the above analysis of the author, and the domestic port has become a popular market concern, how to understand these two issues, because of space reasons, the next chapter to do analysis.

Summary: the international market has been overdraft bad, rigid demand is coming, the improvement of urea exports worth looking forward to!

Russian media said Wang Dongjin, vice president of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), said at the press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China that China has gradually built in Central Asia, China, Russia, China, Myanmar and the sea 4 large oil and gas transport channel, the initial formation of China Unicom’s oil and gas supply and market network.

According to the Russian satellite news agency Beijing May 8 reported that Wang Dongjin said that China Petroleum is the main business of oil and gas exploration and development, refining and chemical engineering, engineering and technical services, international trade, equipment manufacturing, is a trans-regional, cross-sectoral, transnational business International Energy Company. In 2016, ranked third in the world’s wealth of five hundred.

He pointed out that since the introduction of the “One Way” initiative, PetroChina upholds the principle of co-building, building and sharing, deepening oil and gas cooperation, promoting interconnection and making a series of new developments.

Wang Dongjin said that China’s oil and “along the way” along the 19 countries to 50 projects to promote the relevant countries of the oil and gas supply and economic and social development. At the same time, actively promote the construction of infrastructure, from the northwest, northeast, southwest and east gradually built in Central Asia, China, Russia, China and Myanmar and the sea and other four major oil and gas transport channel, initially formed Unicom Chinese and foreign, through multi-national oil and gas supply and market The internet.

He also pointed out that China Petroleum in the “one way” oil and gas cooperation, give full consideration to the resources of the government, partners, local communities, reasonable concern, and strive to build a win-win situation, win-win fate of the community. For example, in Kazakhstan, China Petroleum Holdings’s Acked Binbin company, tax accounted for 70% of local tax revenue, providing more than 30,000 jobs. At the same time, in order to ensure that the local people in the cold winter can eat fresh vegetables, the company also invested in the construction of Kazakhstan’s largest modern greenhouse vegetable greenhouses.

According to the news network – the reporter learned that Wang Dongjin stressed that the dedication of energy, to create harmony, is the purpose of China Petroleum, this harmony, including oil and gas production and environmental harmony, including China Petroleum and Resources countries partners and local community harmony. China National Petroleum will always uphold this purpose, in the “all the way” oil and gas cooperation to do responsible companies, do outstanding corporate citizenship.

It is reported that China Petroleum in promoting employment, enthusiastic public welfare, improve people’s livelihood, environmental protection and other aspects of the active implementation of social responsibility, promote popular contacts. The investment and development of public welfare undertakings cover almost all projects in the country where the number of direct beneficiaries is more than 2 million. Wang Dongjin introduction, in donations, the company in Kazakhstan has funded nearly a thousand outstanding students to study in China. In Myanmar, China Petroleum Infrastructure Assistance Project 177, the new reconstruction of 72 schools, 30 hospitals and power facilities, roads and bridges, water supply facilities.

Ministry of Environmental Protection on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas “2 +26″ city of air pollution control supervision has been carried out for 1 month. As of May 7, 28 inspectors were surveyed 8447 enterprises (units), found that 5594 enterprises have environmental problems, accounting for about 66.2% of the total inspection.

There are problems in the enterprise, “scattered pollution” problem of 1930 enterprises, exceeding the emissions of 30, not installed pollution control facilities 512, sewage treatment facilities are not running 507, suspected of online monitoring fraud 12, there are VOCs Governance of 179, anti-dust measures are not perfect 1075, there are 1349 other problems.

The inspection team will inspect the environmental problems discovered every day to report to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, at the same time copy the city where the people’s government. Ministry of Environmental Protection on the inspection found in the outstanding environmental problems, issued a notice of supervision, instructed Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and other six provinces, municipal environmental protection bureau (bureau) to rectify the issue of supervision.

May 5, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued a third batch of large inspectors found that the supervision of the notice, the total supervision of 738 outstanding environmental issues. Supervision of the environmental issues, involving “scattered pollution” illegal production of enterprises 411, other prominent environmental problems 327.

Prior to this, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has issued two batches of inspectors found that the issue of supervision notice. The second batch of 554 environmental problems. According to the feedback, as of May 2, the second batch of supervision of 255 “scattered pollution” illegal production enterprises, the removal of 115 banned, ordered to stop 106, the completion rate of 86.7%. The second batch of 299 other outstanding environmental issues, has ordered to stop 107, 68 cases of punishment, demolition of 16 banned, 146 have been rectified to complete the completion rate of 48.8%, the remaining issues are being rectified.