According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on February 14, China’s imports of natural gas reached a record high of 98.09 million tons in January 2019, an increase of 26.8% over the same period last year, and the cumulative imports of natural gas reached 4.86 billion US dollars (33.51 billion RMB), an increase of 59.1% over the same period last year.

Thus, in January 2019, the average import price of natural gas was 495.9 US dollars per ton (3620.1 yuan per ton), an increase of 103.1 US dollars per ton, or 26.2% over the previous year.

In terms of quantity, in January 2019, China’s natural gas imports reached a record high. We know that China’s natural gas imports remain high in winter heating demand. In January of this year, while the temperature continued to be low, the natural gas supply in Kangzen, Turkmenistan, fell sharply in the short term, causing short-term panic in the market. In order to stabilize the market and guarantee the demand for natural gas during the Spring Festival in early February, the import volume of natural gas in January continued to increase by 576,000 tons at the high level of 9.233 million tons in December last year, an increase of 6.2%.

In terms of unit import prices, the cost of natural gas imports in January was slightly lower than the historical high of $500.3 per ton in December last year, a decrease of less than 1.0%. However, compared with the same period last year, the unit price of imports increased significantly in January. In addition to the factors driving up demand, the rise in oil prices throughout the year has also affected the unit price of natural gas imports to a certain extent, according to the operators.

With the rapid growth of natural gas imports under low domestic supply, China’s dependence on natural gas has also increased substantially. “In 2018, China’s natural gas imports are expected to reach 125.4 billion cubic metres, an increase of nearly 30 billion cubic metres, with an external dependence of 45.3%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points over the same period last year.” According to the Report on the Development of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the Report) issued by the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group. At the same time, the report predicts that the domestic demand for natural gas will continue to grow rapidly in 2019, but the growth rate will decline somewhat, and the import volume will continue to grow rapidly.

An analyst said Wednesday that floods in Queensland, Australia, would block rail transport of zinc concentrates from the area to Port Townsville, and the disruption could last at least a month, Reuters reported.

Major mining companies such as Glencore, MMG Ltd and Outh 32 carry zinc and lead concentrates from the Mt Isa area through the 1,000 km (620 miles) railway line, and at least one of them intends to switch to more expensive automobile transportation as a temporary alternative.

Forty percent of Australia’s zinc production is shipped outward through the port of Townsville, with a shipment volume of about 700,000 tons per year, accounting for 5% of global supply.

Last week, the northern coast of Queensland was flooded and floods swept inland, flooding vast areas of land in record-breaking mud.

Railway operator Queensland Railway said that 400 kilometres of railway tracks between Cronkley and Huhnden were closed and the company was waiting for the flood to subside to assess the disaster.

Pacific Freight International, Glencore and Emergency Services are also assessing the loss of a freight train carrying zinc, lead concentrates and copper. The train, with 80 carriages, was moved to higher ground before the flood, but it was also confirmed by an aerial survey last week that it had been submerged.

A spokesman for Queensland Railway said it was too early to determine how long the railway would be closed.

Queensland Railway said in a statement: “The area near Julia Creek is still severely affected by floods, which means that it is not yet possible to enter the area to assess the disaster situation.”

“Cranes and other large machinery will be used in the post-disaster repair work, but the repair work can not be carried out until the flood recedes and ground conditions permit.”

Some analysts said that the railway line may be closed for at least one month, depending on the extent and scale of the damage, but the damage can not be fully determined within at least a week.

Lloyd Hain of AME said that “first they have to wait for the flood to recede for disaster assessment, and then the amount of repair work depends on the extent of damage to railway lines and dams. If a lot of earthwork is needed, it may take a long time”.

Glencore said its mining operations in North Queensland were continuing and the transport network was being closely monitored, while MMG said it was considering trucking.

“The company is aware of the impact on railway logistics and is looking for alternative transport options, including the use of cars to transport concentrates to the port of Townsville,” MMG said in an e-mail statement.

“At present, production is going on normally, but the products are temporarily stacked in the mine.”

South 32 said it would release its semi-annual report on Thursday, without commenting on the matter. A spokesman for New Century Resources said the company had not been affected by the disaster for the time being by pipeline transportation of concentrates.

Since the end of 2018, the price of lithium metal has dropped frequently. In addition to the impact of the lower price of lithium salt, environmental protection inspection in winter led to the closure and rectification of downstream pharmaceutical enterprises, and the weakening of upstream demand was also a key factor.

SMM Market Research after the Spring Festival holidays, according to some lithium metal manufacturers revealed that orders before the Spring Festival are not good, rarely completed transactions. This is mainly due to the fact that lithium metal is a dangerous substance. Considering its flammable and explosive characteristics, downstream manufacturers do not stock up at all. This week, manufacturers of lithium metal and lithium strip lithium sheets began to work, but according to industry insiders, the demand for lithium strip lithium for a lithium battery manufacturer did not start to rise until January 15, or even after March, so the purchase of lithium metal would not begin until next week.

In the downturn, both the upstream and downstream markets are bearish on the price of lithium metal. A major lithium producer revealed that although the price of lithium metal has not yet been determined, the downward possibility is extremely high.

Potassium fertilizer exports are expected to increase substantially

The tentative tariff rate for import and export in 2019 and other adjustments proposed that zero tariff should be imposed on chemical fertilizers and other commodities from January 1, 2019. Before that, the export of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate had to impose a high tariff of 600 yuan per ton, which made the export of potassium fertilizer difficult.

Customs data show that in the first 11 months of 2018, China exported only 7726 tons of potassium sulfate, a decrease of 44.9% over the same period last year, and 54,000 tons of potassium chloride, a decrease of 74.6% over the same period last year. Potassium fertilizer exports are expected to increase substantially after the abolition of export tariffs in 2019.

From the specific export varieties, the export of potassium sulfate deserves more attention. The main reason is that China is a potassium-deficient country, which imports a large amount of potassium chloride every year. Potassium chloride mainly guarantees domestic supply. It is expected that the export volume of potassium chloride will not be too large in 2019. Potassium sulfate is a secondary processed product. Its output has increased dramatically in recent years and is in a state of oversupply. It is urgently needed to digest excess capacity through export. Enterprises are highly motivated to export. Potassium sulfate export is expected to be particularly hot in 2019.

French oil and gas giant Dordall expects its oil and gas production to grow by 9% this year after reaching a record level in 2018, according to Przewalski Energy Information London.

Following other oil giants, the company recently announced a series of strong results in the fourth quarter of last year. Total oil and gas production rose 8.1% year-on-year to 27.75 million barrels per day, a record high, Dodall said on Thursday.

The company expects that the Kaombo oilfield in northern Angola, Egina oilfield in Nigeria and Ichthys oilfield in northwestern Australia will help the company increase oil and gas production by 9% this year.

The company also stressed that the start-up of Iara-1 oilfield in Brazil, Kaombo South oilfield in Angola, Culzean oilfield in Britain and Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway will support the company’s oil and gas production growth this year.