1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 21 was 815 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% compared to the average price of 805 yuan/ton on November 15.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, downstream demand has increased, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has risen. The international market for ammonium sulfate has not improved yet and remains mainly weak. As of November 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 770 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has stabilized after a slight increase in recent days. Downstream demand for replenishment remains cautious towards high priced ammonium sulfate. At present, the export market situation is not good, and the domestic ammonium sulfate has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: The average market price on November 20th was 7334.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market continues to rise, and the atmosphere in the market is still good, with prices stable and rising. At present, Shandong Refining continues to slightly increase prices, and on-site transactions are still acceptable. Sinopec East China has raised its listing price by 100 yuan/ton, with an execution of 7250 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level, with a slight increase in the number of selling orders. It is expected that in the short term, prices will tend to be strong and consolidate, and actual transactions will be negotiated on a case by case basis.

Recently (11.11~11.19), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 19, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 14280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.99% from 15030 yuan/ton on November 11. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their offers. As of November 18th, the mainstream prices for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze regions in East China range from 13700 to 14450 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the price of butadiene was 10162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.09% from 10937 yuan/ton on November 11th.

Recently (11.11~11.19), the domestic butadiene rubber plant started production at 6.4%, with stable, moderate, and slight fluctuations as the main trend.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 15th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will shift downwards; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the short-term or weak adjustment of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is dominant.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from last week this week (11.11-15). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5206 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.19% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since November, PVC prices have continued to decline. This week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, PVC prices continued to fall, and as of the weekend, prices have slightly stopped falling. On the one hand, due to the weakness of the crude oil market and the decline in futures prices, the spot PVC market has been linked to a downward trend, coupled with loose supply and demand performance. In the past two months, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased, with more than half of them operating at full capacity. Market shipment pressure has increased, and dealer offers have continued to decline. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5100-5300 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising and mainly operated at a high level. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since November has been zero. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the pressure on PVC supply and demand will not decrease, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market trend was volatile from November 8th to 15th, 2024. On November 8th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% from 5860 yuan/ton on November 15th. The xylene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, with overall supply being loose and downstream procurement enthusiasm not high. The market is generally on a wait-and-see attitude.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI crude oil futures for December were reported at $67.02 per barrel, down 4.77% this week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been partially reduced. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of November 15th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5800-5900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 11th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 14th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market fell by $7/ton, with closing prices of $786-788/ton FOB Korea and $811-813/ton CFR China, a decrease of $23/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, refinery inventories have been low recently, and port inventories have also been operating at a low level, resulting in less supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream procurement intentions are biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the market atmosphere has been relatively weak recently, and the price trend has been volatile.