Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at a low level at the end of September, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a narrow decline. As of September 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16083.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.82% compared to early September.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In early September, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs increased, and by mid month, the industry average operating rate had risen by 6% before continuing to operate sideways, with a current overall load of around 79%. Although spot prices have remained at the low point of the year in the medium to long term, the industry’s weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and there is ample supply of goods on site. In September, the supply was loose, which put pressure on manufacturers to lower their factory prices. The future maintenance plan is sparse, the supply-demand mismatch is profound and difficult to change, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A in China has been mainly sideways recently. At present, the prices of phenol and acetone, the direct raw materials for bisphenol A, are fluctuating and the cost support is average. The downstream production of the two main forces has limited changes, coupled with insufficient pre holiday stocking heat, the company’s profit situation is not good, and the consumption of bisphenol A has not further improved. The future load of the bisphenol A industry is expected to return to excess, and there is an expectation of increased supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC cost is stable but gradually weakening.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. At present, the traditional peak season of “Golden September” has come to an end, and the terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded. The purchasing logic mainly leans towards weak demand. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. The market has not responded well to the double festival stocking market, and buyers are strongly resistant to high priced goods, resulting in slow circulation of goods on site. Due to the delayed peak season consumption, it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

At the end of September, the PC market was running at a low and weak level. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with small fluctuations, while the support for PC costs is flat. Domestic aggregation plants have high loads and high supply. The current low point of PC prices is weakly consolidating, and downstream peak season consumption has not yet begun, making it difficult for weak demand stocking to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Business Society predicts that the PC market will not see a significant upward trend in the short to medium term in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market has experienced narrow fluctuations and a slight upward adjustment in recent days (9.16-9.23). On September 23, the benchmark price of toluene was 6210 yuan/ton, and on September 16, the benchmark price of toluene was 6180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% during the period. This cycle, the toluene market has been operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices. The mentality of the spot market has improved, and prices are generally firm, resulting in a slight rebound in market prices. Affected by the weak actual demand downstream, the price increase during the week was limited, and the overall operation was stable, moderate, and strong. As of September 23rd, the mainstream quotation range in East China is between 6100-6150 yuan/ton

Cost wise: The international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.88 per barrel. The crude oil market has started to decline in this cycle, and this news is negative for international oil prices due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Global crude oil demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the end of the peak oil season in the United States, dragging down the crude oil market and causing a decline in crude oil market prices. The rise in crude oil market prices in the later stage of this cycle, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, has boosted the crude oil market. Looking ahead, the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: Sinopec’s quotation for toluene has been partially reduced during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude adjustment among different underground suppliers. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of September 23rd, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7800 yuan/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $840-842/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of $6/ton from $834-836/ton on September 17th.

Future forecast: From a cost perspective, the expected improvement in the crude oil market will boost market sentiment. At present, the overall inventory of toluene in the supply side is at a stable, medium, and low level, which is a certain positive boost to the market. On the demand side, the downstream market has performed poorly, maintaining the intention of purchasing essential goods. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overall, weak demand has constrained the upward potential of the toluene market, and it is expected that the toluene market will continue to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. Focus on downstream stocking situation in the future.

The price of isooctanol surged after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 8.79% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 15th. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol increased significantly. The production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, and downstream stocking is concentrated before the National Day holiday. The supply of isooctanol is tight, and the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DOP has increased. The demand for isooctanol has also increased, and the supply and demand in the isooctanol market are tight, resulting in a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.

Crude oil prices rise, octanol costs increase

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.01 per barrel, a significant increase of 6.97% compared to the crude oil price of $69.19 per barrel on September 11th; Compared to September 15th, the crude oil price increased by $71.61 per barrel, with a growth rate of 3.35%. The significant increase in crude oil prices is favorable for downstream markets, and the expected cost of isooctanol is expected to rise.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices surge

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8963.75 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.44% compared to the DOP price of 8501.25 yuan/ton on September 14th. The price of DOP has significantly increased after the holiday. The expected increase in operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has led to an increase in demand for isooctanol plasticizers. In addition, stocking up before the National Day holiday has led to an increase in downstream demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the market for isooctanol will rise after the holiday. In terms of supply, isooctanol manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, plasticizer companies have increased their production, coupled with stocking up before the National Day holiday, resulting in an increase in demand for isooctanol; The United States has significantly reduced interest rates, leading to a surge in crude oil prices and an expected increase in the cost of isooctanol. Cost support, tight supply and increased demand, increased support for the rise of isooctanol, and expected volatility in the future price of isooctanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 19th was 911 yuan/ton, which is 0.18% lower than the average price of 913 yuan/ton on September 11th.

2、 Market analysis

In mid September, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market slightly decreased. The profits of coking enterprises have decreased, with production restrictions being the main focus, and the operating rate at the domestic level has decreased. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced inquiries and are more cautious in procurement. Recently, the weak trend in urea prices has had a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. The export demand is in high demand, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 905-935 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has experienced a slight decline in recent days, with an overall stalemate as the main trend. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and the trading atmosphere is relatively weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly operate in a narrow range of consolidation.

In mid September, the domestic ABS market was consolidating at a low level, and spot prices of various grades remained stable with small fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11587.50 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -1.07% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In mid September, the load level of the domestic ABS industry was average, and some of the early maintenance capacity resumed work. The industry’s operating rate rebounded by about 3% to 65%. However, due to the slow digestion of the supply, overall inventory continues to accumulate in a pattern of stable supply with an upward trend. Recently, the inventory of ABS finished products has risen to over 185000 tons. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: During this period, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, and the support effect on the cost side of ABS was average. The acrylonitrile market has fallen from a high level. This phase of high point market benefited from favorable supply conditions, but there was little substantial improvement in fundamentals. The lack of timely follow-up on demand and the transfer of goods from manufacturers to midstream merchants often result in a lack of digestion power for product inventory, leading to local resource surplus and causing the market to fall again.

Recently, the butadiene market has seen an increase. Before the holiday, major factories raised their ex factory prices twice, boosting the confidence of holders and leading to a general increase in on-site offers. In terms of demand, there has been a recent restart of facilities in East China, which has boosted the demand for raw material butadiene and significantly improved downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods, and it is expected that the trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

The styrene market has been trading sideways at a low level this decade. Due to significant fluctuations in the crude oil market, the price of pure benzene has weakened, and the cost support of styrene has cooled down. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory of ports in East China remains low. Domestic demand is relatively stable, and the situation of new orders is average. There is a struggle between long and short positions in the market, and there is limited change in the supply and demand of styrene spot before and after the Mid Autumn Festival. It is expected that the market will continue to organize and operate in the future.

In terms of demand: September is already halfway through, and the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. Instead, it continues the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence, have a low willingness to build warehouses, and offer according to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In mid September, domestic ABS prices remained weak and stable. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly rebounded within ten days, and the inventory of finished products has slightly increased. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. The mismatch between supply and demand in the market is difficult to change, and due to the influence of multiple bearish factors, the traditional demand peak season expectation in September has not been fulfilled. The market has a bearish attitude towards the future, and it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.