Recently, under the boost of costs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight increase. As of December 22, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7168 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from December 15.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has prompted the United States to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at its December meeting and may postpone it until the second quarter of next year, which is positive news for international oil prices. However, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish for the oil market. On December 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.88 per barrel.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly increased, with an average price of 4809 yuan/ton in the East China PTA market as of December 22, up 2.75% from December 9. In the second half of November, the PTA pre maintenance equipment will resume operation, but with the current processing fees, there will be less maintenance of the PTA equipment. Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th; Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons will undergo maintenance on December 12th. Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant began trial operation on December 18th. The current industry production is around 86%, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose.

The textile industry continues the off-season, and downstream yarn factories maintain on-demand procurement. The inventory level of raw materials for terminal textile enterprises is not high, and there is still some time before the Spring Festival. This round of replenishment is expected to be mostly for pre year orders, and there is still room for replenishment in the later period. In addition, domestic macro policies have released a series of positive signals, including promoting domestic demand, and it has been heard that export orders have performed well.

According to analysis by Shengyi Society, the market’s expectation for seasonal accumulation of crude oil inventories remains strong, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, which continues to exert pressure on rising oil prices. International crude oil may operate weakly. With the investment of new production capacity, PTA production in December may reach a new high for the year, and the supply-demand contradiction of PTA is difficult to alleviate. The fundamentals are difficult to be optimistic, and support for short fiber costs is weakened. There has been no significant increase in downstream terminal orders, and the sustainability of demand side replenishment needs to be monitored. Overall, the price of polyester staple fibers may decline.

The atmosphere in the domestic phenol market is slightly weak, with a reference price of 7850-7900 yuan/ton in the phenol market in East China. Terminal enterprises in the market are not very interested in entering the market, and the delivery of demand orders is low. Traders have little pressure to ship, and there is a stable price sentiment. However, due to poor stock flow and concession operations, trading follow-up is average. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7942 yuan/ton on December 12th, and 7980 yuan/ton on December 19th. The price fluctuated mainly within the weekly range, with a single day drop of 0.2% on December 18th.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7880 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 18th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 18th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7880./ -50

Shandong region/ 8000./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 8000./ -50

South China region/ 7980./ -50

Business Society expects that the short-term market fluctuations will not be significant, mostly around 50-100 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 18th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4250 yuan/ton. Today, the overall DMF market is operating steadily, with prices remaining stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF has been consolidated in a narrow range, with prices remaining stable. The mainstream price for most enterprises is around 4300 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply side is stable, with average demand for procurement and downstream entry into the market according to demand. The overall market transaction atmosphere is average, and spot inventory is average. Merchants are cautious in their operations.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol prices are mainly running weakly, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the downstream on-demand procurement trend is mainly stable. The methanol market in Shanxi region is running steadily, and the enterprise inventory is running at a low level. The methanol market in Hebei region is running steadily, and enterprises are actively shipping. Due to the increase in rainy and snowy weather during the season, in order to avoid inventory backlog and increase inventory pressure, methanol enterprises mainly rely on discounts and orders.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current momentum for DM price increases is insufficient, and downstream market demand is limited. It is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid has shown a continuous upward trend recently. As of December 17th, the average price of formic acid was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.31% compared to the same period last month at 2775 yuan/ton, and an increase of 3.51% compared to the beginning of the month at 2850 yuan/ton. It has been rising continuously for three months since September.

Since May, the price of formic acid has been continuously falling. In order to stabilize the price, China’s largest formic acid production enterprise has chosen to reduce production and offer lower prices. Some of the equipment has been shut down, and the supply in the field has sharply decreased, resulting in an increase in formic acid prices.

On the raw material side, the domestic methanol market was mainly on the rise during the week. Changes in Middle Eastern facilities may lead to a decrease in import volume, depletion of port inventory, shutdown of the Southwest natural gas to methanol plant, planned maintenance of the Zhongyuan Dahua 50 plant, and a decrease in supply from mainland China, resulting in an increase in methanol prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is still positive support for the raw material methanol, coupled with a decrease in on-site supply, and formic acid prices are strongly supported. It is expected that there will be strong fluctuations in the short term, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

At the beginning of the week, the inventory level at the port was not high, only 6000 tons, and spot goods were still in a tight supply situation, with a stable supply and price sentiment. However, due to the sluggish buying enthusiasm at the end of the week and poor shipment, there was a concession operation. Subsequently, the market center of gravity weakened in the middle of the week, and the inverted range of the market widened, resulting in a slightly quiet trading atmosphere. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 8017.5 yuan/ton on December 6th and 7930 yuan/ton on December 13th, with a slight decrease of 1.1% during the week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7800-8000 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 13th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7800./ -170

Shandong region/ 8000./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 8000./ -50

South China region/ 7900./ -150

As of now, the cargo statistics in East China are 26000 tons, reaching 9000 tons, and the inventory at Jiangyin Port is at a low level of 17000 tons. Follow up on the shipping dynamics.

Faced with high price resistance in demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on purchasing essential goods, which has been constrained by the previous round of price increases. The downstream bisphenol A spot market rose to 9300-9400 yuan/ton due to the impact of raw material price adjustments.

During the shutdown of the Yangzhou Shiyou phenol ketone plant, the shipment of goods has been suspended. We will continue to monitor the replenishment of ship cargo in the near future, and there will be no significant increase in port storage in the short term. The pressure on the supply side is not high, and the space for supply concessions has narrowed. Business Society expects that the short-term market fluctuations will not be significant, mostly around 50-100 yuan/ton.