Throughout April, the domestic ABS market continued to decline, with most spot prices of various grades fluctuating downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10725 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -4.67% compared to early April.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In April, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry was slightly reduced, and the overall load level decreased from 73% at the end of March to the current 65%. The average weekly production has returned to around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has dropped from a high level to around 195000 tons. However, the on-site supply is still at a relatively abundant level. In addition, there are relatively few maintenance plans in the industry in the short term, and some have returned to production capacity, resulting in a profound supply-demand imbalance. Overall, there is limited improvement in the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: Since April, the upstream three materials of ABS have shown signs of fatigue, which has not provided good support for the cost side of ABS. At the beginning of the month, some units in the East China and Shandong regions reduced their load or underwent maintenance, resulting in a periodic decrease in supply of acrylonitrile. The inventory pressure in the industry has decreased. However, the domestic acrylonitrile market’s upward trend was hindered in the middle of the month. In addition, the new 400000 ton acrylonitrile plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is also planned to be put into operation in May and June. The consumer end has weakened in stages, and prices have fallen back. With the further deepening of the supply-demand contradiction and the worsening of the loss situation in acrylonitrile production, some production enterprises will be forced to adopt measures such as parking or reducing production, and the market decline may gradually narrow. It is expected that the market price will bottom out in May, but when the market rebounds or how long it will last at the bottom will still be determined by the degree of supply reduction.

The domestic butadiene market fell first and then rose in April. In the early days of the Qingming Festival, some downstream warehouses were replenished, but due to the premium transactions of some bidding sources, as well as the impact of crude oil, tariffs, and port arrival news, the price of butadiene in the mid market significantly declined. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices, and the market trading atmosphere slightly improved, leading to a rebound in the market.
Styrene is also subject to international news such as equivalent tariffs, and the market has experienced a significant decline in the early stage. Recently, due to the recovery of the pure benzene market and the tight balance between supply and demand of styrene, prices have shown a trend of stabilizing and oscillating. In April, there were many centralized inspections of styrene, and the supply side remained tight. Downstream 3S factories had high inventory and limited production. However, in the uncertain market situation of raw materials, the risk of a decline in styrene in the future cannot be ruled out.
On the demand side: As we enter April, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal sector is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to buy at the bottom and supplement orders for urgent needs. The confidence in the market is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere tends to be wait-and-see. With the depletion of essential orders and pre holiday stock, new order deliveries have noticeably decreased, and the flow of goods has returned slowly. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market experienced a stepwise decline throughout April. The upstream three materials are weakly moving, which provides poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The production pressure of ABS polymerization plant has increased, and the load has been reduced. The weak consumption pattern on the demand side has not improved. Business analysts believe that ABS has fallen to near cost price, and the market has long had strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with the impact of international news such as equivalent tariffs, pessimistic expectations for the future are biased. The bullish trend within the market is hard to find, and there is still a possibility that the market may continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash has increased this week. As of April 30th, the average market price of soda ash was 1408 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% compared to the soda ash price of 1400 yuan/ton on April 26th, and a decrease of 1.81% compared to the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the soda ash market has shown a strong upward trend. The operating rate of supply side equipment remains high, and the market supply is sufficient. However, with the release of some equipment maintenance news in the soda ash market in May, the enterprise’s mentality is optimistic. In addition, with the follow-up of downstream replenishment before the holiday, the transaction price of soda ash has been raised.
As of April 30th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1300-1500 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1240-1400 yuan/ton for light soda ash, which is stable compared to last Friday.
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market continues to remain stable. From April 26th to 30th, glass prices remained at 15.58 yuan/square meter. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market remains unchanged, downstream demand is still acceptable, market consumption is slow, glass inventory is stable, and market prices are operating on a wait-and-see basis.
Future forecast: The maintenance of some soda ash plants in May will have a positive impact on the market. At the same time, the downstream market will remain strong, and the atmosphere for soda ash transactions will be good. It is expected that soda ash prices will be strong and upward in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid in April first rose and then fell. As of April 29th, the price was 2700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the price of 2810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 3.91% during the month.
As of the end of the month, the market price details of acetic acid in various regions of China in April are as follows:
Region /On April 1st /On April 15th /April 29th
South China region /2800 yuan/ton /2750 yuan/ton /2650 yuan/ton
North China region /2710 yuan/ton /2765 yuan/ton /2640 yuan/ton
Shandong region /2750 yuan/ton .//2780 yuan/ton /2640 yuan/ton
Jiangsu region /2625 yuan/ton /2600 yuan/ton./2500 yuan/ton
Zhejiang region /2850 yuan/ton /2825 yuan/ton /2700 yuan/ton
In early April, the price of acetic acid slightly increased, mainly due to the maintenance of main factories in Shandong, which led to a decrease in the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity and a bullish attitude among industry players. As a result, the acetic acid quotation was adjusted upwards; In the second half of the year, as the maintenance equipment increased its load and operation, the market supply increased, while downstream purchases were flat. The trading atmosphere in the market was relatively weak, and the mentality of industry players gradually became bearish. In some areas, the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Downstream demand remained weak before the holiday, and manufacturers faced significant sales pressure. Under the supply-demand game, the price of acetic acid fell weakly.
The methanol market on the raw material side is fluctuating and declining. As of April 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.52% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2580.00 yuan/ton. Under the influence of crude oil and policies within the month, the domestic methanol market experienced a significant decline. Subsequently, the port market continued to weaken, affecting the weak rise of the spot market. Downstream consumers remained cautious about high prices, resulting in insufficient favorable demand for methanol and overall weak fluctuations in the market.
Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the current bearish atmosphere in the acetic acid market is evident, with high utilization rates of supply capacity and sluggish shipments from enterprises. Downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment is average, market trading is limited, and there is a clear trend of oversupply in the market. It is expected that the acetic acid market group will continue to operate weakly, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province continues to decline, with an average market price of 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 16970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 2.50%.
This month’s market analysis
Magnesium prices showed a continuous downward trend in April, with prices stabilizing at 16550 yuan/ton from mid month to the end of the month without any significant rebound, indicating a loose supply-demand relationship in the market.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the magnesium industry is currently showing a tight supply-demand balance, with the output and inventory of major production enterprises operating in a low range. Top manufacturers maintain market bargaining power through price strategies. However, it should be noted that as some suspended production enterprises in the main production areas accelerate their resumption of work and production, it is expected that new production capacity will be released before the end of this month, and the overall operating rate of the industry will show a stepped upward trend.
On the demand side, after completing the phased centralized warehousing, the market digestion pace has significantly slowed down. At the same time, overseas orders are about to enter a centralized delivery cycle, but the momentum released by terminal demand is still insufficient. Downstream buyers are constrained by market wait-and-see sentiment and generally adopt a “sales based procurement” strategy, executing procurement plans only for rigid orders. In the international market, overseas buyers have lowered prices, resulting in a significant increase in the difficulty of landing export orders and continued pressure on market transaction activity.
In terms of raw materials
In April, the price of ferrosilicon was dragged down by the manganese silicon market (the average price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia fell by 4.04%), easing cost pressures and passively expanding profit margins for magnesium plants, stimulating production enthusiasm. The resumption of ferrosilicon production capacity in Inner Mongolia and other regions, coupled with loose supply of raw materials, further weakens the bottom support of magnesium prices.
The current situation of stable price operation in the Lantan market. Most production enterprises have inventory at a median level, and with the expectation of cost support, their willingness to raise prices has increased, maintaining a dynamic balance between market supply and demand.
Future forecast
The support on the raw material side has weakened. In terms of supply and demand, an increase in supply and a decrease in demand have led to a decline in magnesium prices. In the short term, magnesium prices may continue to fluctuate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 18th, the price of lead 1 # was 16900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the lead price of 16915 yuan/ton on April 14th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices experienced a slight decline due to weak consolidation within the range.
Raw material end
The bullish expectations of recyclers continue to ferment, and the current inventory of recycled lead raw materials is still significantly lower than the historical average level of the same period. The reason behind this is that the amount of discarded lead-acid batteries is showing a decreasing trend, coupled with intensified competition in recycling channels, leading to a weakened supply elasticity in the waste battery market. Prices are easily affected by short-term supply-demand mismatches and maintain a pattern of easy rise but difficult fall.
supply end
In April, domestic northern mines were still in the stage of capacity ramp up. Currently, the raw material inventory of smelters remains relatively abundant, and the overall supply system of the mining end is running smoothly without significant fluctuations. The weekly processing fee index for domestic lead concentrate remained unchanged from last week, and there was no significant change in the profit transmission mechanism at the mining end. Regenerated lead smelting enterprises are facing significant cost inversion pressure, squeezed by high raw material procurement costs and weak downstream consumption. It is expected that the number of production reduction enterprises will further increase next week, and there is a downward risk in the industry’s capacity utilization rate.
demand side
The May Day holiday is approaching, and downstream battery production companies have gradually launched raw material inventory and stocking plans based on production linkage and raw material supply assurance considerations. Although the current procurement behavior has not yet shown a trend of concentrated volume, driven by the expected release of downstream stage replenishment demand, the market trading atmosphere is transitioning from cautious observation to a moderate recovery, and the overall activity is expected to steadily increase during the pre holiday window period.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that in the short term, the central price of lead will show a moderate upward trend in the game of macroeconomic sentiment disturbance and fundamental support, with the upward range mainly consisting of narrow range fluctuations.