According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been rising and then falling recently (7.22~7.28), with an overall upward trend. As of July 28th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 15125 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 15108 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with a weekly high of 15633 yuan/ton. On the one hand, downstream tire production has remained stable, providing essential support for natural rubber. On the other hand, the situation in Thailand and Cambodia has driven up natural rubber prices in the short term. As of July 28th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 15000-15250 yuan/ton.
As of July 25th, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, an increase of 0.91% from 54.80 baht/kg on July 22nd. At present, domestic production areas have entered a period of production reduction and shutdown. In addition, although overseas main production areas are still in the peak season of rubber production, the impact of Southeast Asian geopolitical conflicts has provided support for the price of natural rubber raw materials in the short term.
Recently (7.22~7.28), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 640400 tons, an increase of 6000 tons or 0.91% compared to the previous period.
Recently (7.22~7.28), the overall stability of downstream tire production has provided essential support for the natural rubber market. As of July 25th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally, as well as stable downstream tire production, provide support for the Tianjin rubber market. However, on the one hand, Tianjin rubber port inventory remains high, which is bearish for the Tianjin rubber market. Furthermore, with the cooling of the situation in Southeast Asia, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a slight decline in volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (7.21-25), the PVC spot market broke away from the weak and volatile market, and made efforts to rise, with a strong upward trend. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in the East China market was 5024 yuan/ton, up 3.87% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: This week, the atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened, driven by the significant rise in the futures market, the spot market has continued to climb. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC production rate has remained stable this week, maintaining the previous level of production rate. The upward trend is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, but the market is still in the stage of destocking, mainly due to the large amount of basic inventory in the market, and the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide market has mainly fallen, and the market has entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly decline of calcium carbide is 1.35%. From this, it can be seen that the cost side has not brought any impetus to PVC, and the increase in downstream procurement has a certain stimulating effect, which has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of the short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment and the driving force of the futures market, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

In the first half of 2025, the import volume of acetone in China was 218000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%. During this period, the highest import volume in May was 44800 tons, and the lowest import volume in June was 21500 tons. In the second half of 2025, China’s acetone production capacity is expected to increase by 510000 tons, with further growth in domestic production and a continuous improvement in self-sufficiency rate. However, the import source of goods is still showing an upward trend.
In 2025, the top four trading partners of importing countries will still be Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Taiwan, China, and South Korea. Starting from 2025, Singapore’s import volume of acetone will increase, with acetone import contracts mainly focused on Saudi Arabia and Thailand. Although the phenol ketone plant in Saudi Arabia began to shut down for maintenance in April, the incoming goods to China still arrived normally, resulting in a significant increase in overall imports from January to May. However, the import volume has decreased year-on-year since June.
In the second half of 2025, China’s acetone production capacity is expected to increase by 510000 tons, and the import sources are mainly operated through contracts. The Saudi Arabian plant will start to shut down for maintenance in April, and the contracts for July and August cannot be supplied normally. The contracts for Thailand have arrived normally. The downstream deep processing industry of acetone still has capacity expansion. In June, the anti-dumping policy of acetone was terminated, and the supply of South Korea, Taiwan, China or China arbitrage in the future, so the import volume showed a trend of growth. Overall, it is estimated that the annual import volume of acetone in 2025 will reach 400000 tons.

参考知识
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参考知识770/1000划译机翻 · 通用领域根据盛益学会商品分析系统，7月份国内TDI市场继续上涨。截至7月22日，华东地区TDI的平均价格为15333元/吨，比7月1日的11733元/顿上涨了30.68%。设备故障和集中维护引发了TDI供应危机设备故障，供应有限7月12日，科思创位于德国多马根的工厂发生电气火灾，导致烧碱、氯气和盐酸生产不可抗力。其他工厂的交货无法完全弥补损失，目前无法预测持续时间。这直接导致年产30万吨TDI设备申报不可抗力供货。这起事故直接导致国内TDI价格上涨。由于海外订单激增，上海科思创暂停报道，万华的报价继续上涨。7月18日，北方一家大型工厂宣布，直销渠道价格上调4500元至18500元/吨，每日涨幅超过30%。在海外设备更换的同时，国内TDI设备进行集中维护，进一步加剧了TDI供应危机。西北地区的两台设备已陆续进入维护阶段，其中一台从7月16日起停机35天，分散的供水已完全中断；另一组将提前10-15天进行检查，直到7月底。匈牙利万华35万吨/年TDI装置于7月19日开始日常维护，预计持续约30天。近期受影响设施的总产能为152万吨，约占全球产能的40%。出口市场超预期2025年5月，中国TDI出口量达到51600吨，创下月度新高，同比飙升98.45%。2025年6月，TDI出口4.8万吨，同比增长81.62%。在中国TDI产能的持续增长、欧美产能的收缩以及关税政策的刺激下，TDI出口市场订单激增。德国科思创第二轮不可抗力事件将影响产能30万吨，占欧洲总产能的55%，这将进一步刺激TDI出口的增长。未来预测截至目前，TDI的高价已超过16000元/吨。在经历了多次价格上涨后，一些中介机构进入了封闭交易和暂停报告的状态，而另一些中介机构则增加了发货意愿。终端用户只需要购买，但下高价订单并不令人满意。考虑到多台TDI设备的同步维护，以及其中一些设备未来仍有维护计划，预计供应将保持紧张。预计TDI市场短期内将继续上涨，我们将密切关注未来供需的变化，

划译

机翻 · 通用领域
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market continued to rise in July. As of July 22, the average price of TDI in East China was 15333 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.68% from 11733 yuan/ton on July 1.
Device malfunction and centralized maintenance triggered TDI supply crisis
Device malfunction, limited supply
On July 12th, Covestro’s factory in Domagen, Germany was affected by an electrical fire, causing force majeure in the production of caustic soda, chlorine gas, and hydrochloric acid. The loss could not be fully compensated by delivery from other factories, and the duration could not be predicted at this time. This directly led to the declaration of force majeure supply for TDI equipment with an annual output of 300000 tons. This accident directly led to an increase in domestic TDI prices. Due to a surge in overseas orders, Shanghai Covestro suspended reporting, and Wanhua’s quotation continued to rise. On July 18th, a major northern factory announced a price increase of 4500 yuan to 18500 yuan/ton for direct sales channels, with a daily increase of over 30%.
At the same time as the overseas equipment changes, the domestic TDI equipment undergoes centralized maintenance, further exacerbating the TDI supply crisis. Two sets of equipment in the northwest region have entered maintenance successively, with one set shut down for 35 days from July 16th, and the scattered water supply has been completely interrupted; The other set will be inspected 10-15 days in advance until the end of July. The 350000 ton/year TDI unit of Wanhua Hungary began routine maintenance on July 19th and is expected to last for about 30 days. The total production capacity of the affected facilities in recent times is 1.52 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the global production capacity.
Export market exceeds expectations
In May 2025, China’s TDI export volume reached 51600 tons, setting a new monthly record high and soaring by 98.45% year-on-year. In June 2025, the export of TDI was 48000 tons, an increase of 81.62% compared to the same period last year. Under the continuous growth of TDI production capacity in China, the contraction of production capacity in Europe and America, and the stimulation of tariff policies, TDI export market orders have surged. The second round of force majeure events in Germany’s Covestro will affect production capacity by 300000 tons, accounting for 55% of Europe’s total production capacity, which will further stimulate the growth of TDI exports.
Future forecast
As of now, the high price of TDI has exceeded 16000 yuan/ton. After multiple price jumps, some intermediaries have entered a state of closed trading and suspended reporting, and some have increased their willingness to ship. End users just need to buy, but placing high priced orders is not satisfactory. Considering the synchronous maintenance of multiple TDI devices and the fact that some of them still have maintenance plans in the future, the supply is expected to remain tight. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to rise in the short term, and we will closely monitor the changes in supply and demand in the future,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has seen a significant upward trend in recent times (7.9-7.22). As of July 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 15108 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.63% from 13908 yuan/ton on the 9th. Downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing support for rubber demand; The raw material prices have slightly increased, and the cost is supported by natural rubber; The slight fluctuations in port inventory but still at a high level have put some pressure on the natural rubber market. As of July 22, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14950~15250 yuan/ton.
As of July 22, the price of Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg, an increase of 0.92% from 54.30 baht/kg on July 9. Currently, domestic production areas are entering a period of reduced production and cutting, but overseas main production areas are still in the peak season for rubber production. In the short term, typhoon weather will provide support for the price of natural rubber raw materials.
Recently (7.9-7.22), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 634600 tons, a decrease of 1800 tons or 0.28% compared to the previous period.
Recently (7.9-7.22), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing strong support for the demand in the natural rubber market. As of July 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material prices are running at high levels, providing support for the Tianjin rubber market. Downstream production has slightly increased, providing strong support for natural rubber demand. Tianjin rubber port inventory remains at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the later stage.