Price: 3073 yuan/ton

Analysis: On April 1st, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily decline in the main production area of Shandong was 7.52%. The main reason is the resumption of work on some of the equipment that underwent troubleshooting in the early stage, resulting in a loose supply performance. Coupled with changes in downstream urea units, ammonia conversion is more common, leading to a short-term surge in ammonia production. Last weekend, along with today, a large factory in Shandong lowered prices by nearly 300 yuan/ton. On Monday, dealers mostly reported lower prices, resulting in sluggish sales. Moreover, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, urea remains weak, prices continue to decline, agricultural demand gap has not passed, industrial demand remains rigid, and the sluggish demand side has suppressed the price of liquid ammonia. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2900-3100 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Downstream procurement will slow down before the Qingming Festival, with sufficient supply and no improvement in downstream demand. It is expected that liquid ammonia will remain weak in the near future, and it is not ruled out that prices may continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in March. From March 1st to 29th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 17050 yuan/ton to 16516 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 3.13% and a year-on-year increase of 2.21%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a weak downward trend, with limited trading atmosphere and strong trading sentiment among traders. Overall, the intention to negotiate remained strong, and market prices fell, with relatively insufficient support.

In the first half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell, with limited follow-up on the demand side and a less than expected buying atmosphere. The downstream end has limited resilience.

In mid month, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices first fell and then rebounded, and the follow-up atmosphere improved slightly, with transactions mainly focusing on rigid demand orders. The overall performance of downstream industries is average, and currently, they mainly consume inventory.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic aggregated MDI market is experiencing a weak downward trend in prices, with poor support and relatively average follow-up on new orders. The driving force on the demand side is lower than expected, social inventory is released, traders have a pessimistic mentality, and the market situation continues to weaken.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Some pure benzene traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and weakened buying sentiment, with average transactions. As of March 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8457.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The aniline market continued to rise in March, and as of March 29th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe aniline was 11655.00 yuan/ton. The cost impact of short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream demand has recovered less than expected, and there is still room for lower priced stocks. Currently, the purchasing enthusiasm of small and medium-sized factories is not good. The short-term demand side support is still limited, and we will follow up on urgent orders. Except for the cold industry, the start-up of other industries is not yet obvious, and the cautious atmosphere is still strong, with overall slow follow-up being the main focus. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is temporarily affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, with the price falling, the overall follow-up momentum is still average. However, considering that the price has fallen into the pre holiday low point, the overall attention will increase. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will mainly consolidate.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5175.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5112.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The current price has dropped by 14.22% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated in March, and it can be seen from the above chart that the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for three consecutive months, with slight fluctuations this month. The raw material market is fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. The competition pressure in the potassium nitrate market is increasing, and downstream factories have limited purchasing enthusiasm, mainly based on demand. The price of potassium nitrate fluctuates slightly. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 4800-5000 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in March was downward. The final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is around 2200 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2150 yuan/ton.

At present, no new goods have arrived at the potassium chloride port, and downstream factories are not actively purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rebound from the bottom in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 26, 2024, the domestic market price of n-propanol was referenced at 7900 yuan/ton. Compared with March 20 (reference price of n-propanol was 7916 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%.

Recently (3.20-3.26), the domestic n-propanol market has been consolidating after a slight decline. Early spring has arrived, and the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market has been relatively light. Downstream demand has been boosted relatively slowly, and the overall supply and demand transmission of n-propanol is average. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market is strong. Some n-propanol operators in Shandong region have narrow lowered the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and other factors, with a downward adjustment of about 100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market has been weak and consolidating. As of March 26th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7200-7600 yuan/ton, with a relatively high price of around 7700-7800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of n-propanol in Nanjing region is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and specific orders need to be negotiated based on actual transactions.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mainly quiet, and the downstream of n-propanol is mainly focused on on-demand procurement. Downstream stocking is generally cautious. Business Society n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to weaken, with most spot prices fluctuating and falling. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 22, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14800 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.47% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has continued to decline recently. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuates and consolidates, with average cost support. In terms of supply, enterprises are operating at a high level and inventory levels are rising. At present, the caprolactam market has sufficient supply, limited downstream demand, and a relatively empty market. The cost support of caprolactam for PA6 continues to weaken.

In terms of supply: Recently, the load of PA6 production enterprises has remained stable, with an average operating rate of around 83%. The market supply has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant. The inventory level has stabilized, and the supply pressure has not increased significantly, providing moderate support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: In terms of downstream, the current situation of the main downstream industries is still good. The operating rate of spinning has increased to around 84%, and the weaving load is around 72%. Due to the early decline in the price of PA6, there has been a lack of willingness to stock up recently, and a wait-and-see attitude towards the decline. Be cautious in trading on the exchange. Poor support for PA6 demand side.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has continued to decline. The price of caprolactam has fallen, weakening the cost support for PA6. Domestic polymerization plants have a large and stable load, while terminal enterprises need to stock up and purchase with caution. There is currently a lack of bullish news on the market, and it is expected that the PA6 market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.