According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 6th, the quoted price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 87600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24% from the same period in May when it was 116200 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 68.83% from the same period last year; The quotation for industrial grade lithium carbonate is 85000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.137% compared to the same period last year.

The continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate in the past four months means that the situation of oversupply is becoming increasingly severe. The estimated total supply of lithium carbonate in July is 84455 tons, with a total demand of 67209 tons and a supply-demand gap of 17246 tons.

Supply side: 2024 is the period of concentrated release of global lithium mineral resources. Recently, the latest auction price of Australian mines was less than $760/ton, which translates to a price of around 73000-75000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate, lowering market expectations for the price of lithium carbonate. Despite the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, lithium salt companies have not engaged in large-scale production cuts or shutdowns. It is expected that the monthly production of lithium carbonate will maintain a positive growth trend, and the pressure of oversupply will continue to intensify.

Demand side: The production schedule of battery factories in August is basically the same as that in July, with limited demand increment. But the pressure on battery inventory has slowed down, which will have a certain boost to the demand for lithium carbonate.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that external mining and low-grade lithium extraction enterprises will gradually cease production as the degree of cost inversion deepens, but the impact on the overall supply scale may be limited, and the situation of overcapacity is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of lithium carbonate will still further decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated narrowly recently (7.29-8.5). As of August 5th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14069 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from 14011 yuan/ton on July 29th. On the one hand, there is a narrow fluctuation in raw material prices, and on the other hand, downstream production has slightly rebounded, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.29-8.5), the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has been slow to improve, and the prices of some natural rubber raw materials have slightly increased, providing weak support for the domestic natural rubber market in terms of cost. As of August 5th, the price of Thai glue was 63.50 baht/kg, slightly higher than the price at the end of July; As of August 5th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 13400 yuan/ton, which has been stable recently.

On the other hand, the speed of natural rubber inventory turnover has slowed down. As of July 28, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 474400 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared to the previous period.

Partial equipment maintenance has been completed, and downstream all steel tire production has slightly rebounded. Faced with the strong demand support of the natural rubber market, downstream inquiries are cautious, and natural rubber prices have slightly adjusted. As of July 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of raw materials both domestically and internationally is increasing slowly, and the overall price of natural rubber raw materials is consolidating narrowly; Downstream tire companies have seen a slight increase in production, but remain cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1996 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% and an increase of 6.63% compared to the same period last year. On July 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 97.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 48.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 54.62% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has continued to decline this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash remains high, the market inventory is sufficient, the production and sales of enterprises are average, and inventory continues to accumulate; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to be weak, and downstream purchases are mostly following up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash is weakly declining. As of July 31, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China has continued to decline, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1750-2000 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1700-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have continued to decline this month, with an average market price of 19.05 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 17.24 yuan/square meter at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.50%. The spot prices in the glass market continue to be weak, downstream demand for essential purchases is weak, market demand is weak, on-site trading is poor, and the price market is weak and falling.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 30th week of 2024 (7.22-7.26), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: calcium carbide (0.62%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-2.10%), PVC (-0.80%), and caustic soda (-0.25%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.42%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been weak and stable in the near future, and the spot alkali plant equipment is operating normally, with sufficient supply of goods. The downstream market continues to be weak, with sluggish procurement entering the market and multidimensional demand replenishment. The inventory of soda ash has generally decreased, and it is expected that soda ash will consolidate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2321 yuan/ton, which is 6.60% lower than the reference average price of 2485 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In July, the domestic urea market prices fell weakly, but rebounded at the end of the month. As of July 31st, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2130-2150 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2150 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2150 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from May 6, 2024 to July 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant decline in July, with the largest drop being -2.62% in the week of July 15th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, while industrial demand is low. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, and the demand for urea remains stable, with many low-priced transactions. At the end of the month, the market trading direction was good, and the urea market slightly rebounded.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market trend has been improving recently, with an increase in market inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. But downstream demand is still relatively low, waiting for the release of terminal demand. Expected short-term consolidation of domestic urea market prices.

The price of isooctanol in July hit a new low within a year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the price of isooctanol was 8966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.66% compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the price dropped by 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.76%. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, reaching a new low for the year at the end of the month. On July 30th, the price of isooctanol was at its lowest point in a year. In July, isooctanol companies started operating at a high level, downstream buying decreased, and high-end market offers came under pressure. Shandong factories voluntarily lowered prices to ship, and isooctanol prices hit a new low in a year.

Supply factors

In July, the isooctanol plant in the northwest region resumed normal production. The isooctanol plant in Zibo, Shandong has a plan to start production, and isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. Downstream buying has slowed down, high-end market offers are under pressure, Shandong factory has lowered prices for shipments, plasticizer market transactions are poor, and the atmosphere for new orders in the isooctanol market continues to be weak. The rise in isooctanol prices has provided weak support.

Demand factors

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to January 1st, the DOP price dropped by 21.23% to 12091.67 yuan/ton. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in July. On July 30th, the price was at its lowest point in a year, a decrease of 2691.67 yuan/ton or 22.03% from the highest price of 12216.67 yuan/ton in a year. In the third quarter, plasticizers were in the off-season of market consumption, and plasticizer factories were also cautious about purchasing raw material octanol. Customers bought in at low prices and concentrated on short-term replenishment to support market prices. However, the upward support was insufficient, and the market lacked sustained upward momentum.

Cost factors

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of July 30th, the price of propylene was 7088.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and consolidated compared to the price of 7133.25 yuan/ton on July 1st, with a decrease of 0.63%; Compared to January 1st, the price of propylene was 6868.25 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 3.20%. The price of propylene fluctuated and consolidated in July, reaching a high level in 24 years. Some enterprises have reduced their load operation, resulting in a decline in production capacity utilization rate, and manufacturers’ offers remain firm. The propylene market is operating steadily with a moderate to strong trend, while the cost of octanol is strongly supported.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, propylene prices are consolidating at a high level, while isooctanol costs remain strong; In terms of supply, isooctanol manufacturers are operating at a high level, and there is sufficient supply of octanol; In terms of demand, during the off-season of consumption, plasticizer factories also adopt a cautious attitude towards the procurement of raw material octanol, and downstream customers replenish their inventory at low prices. Overall, in the future, there is sufficient supply and weak demand for isooctanol, and cost support still exists. The price of isooctanol in the future is weakly consolidating.