On the first day after the holiday (October 8th), Sinopec East China Phenol’s listed price was lowered by 200 yuan per ton. On the 10th, Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented a factory settlement price of 8400 yuan/ton for phenol products. The domestic phenol market continues to decline, with an amplified drop and increased market shipment pressure. The negotiated price in the East China region is between 8200-8300 yuan/ton, and there are many downstream inquiries, but actual transactions are slow. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the national market was at 8832 yuan/ton before the holiday, and fell to 8450 yuan/ton on the 9th. After the holiday, the market fell 4.33% to nearly 400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market in East China was negotiated to drop to around 8250 yuan/ton.

The phenol offers in various markets across the country on October 9th are as follows:

East China region: 8200-8250, down 200

Shandong region: 8400-8600, down 100%

Surrounding areas of Yanshan: 8400-8600, down 100%

South China region: 8450, down 200

From a cost perspective, crude oil and styrene prices fell sharply at the close of the 9th, and pure benzene spot prices fell sharply on the 9th. The negotiation reference was between 7750-7850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 200-250 yuan/ton. It is expected that there will be large-scale factory maintenance downstream in the short term, and demand may decline. The import volume of products is expected to only increase and not decrease, and the supply side is loose. Traders are under great pressure to hold goods, and the market atmosphere in Shandong is bearish. Downstream procurement mainly consists of small orders with few transactions.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market remained stable with small movements, and remained lukewarm after the holiday. Market offers continued to maintain stability, and negotiations in the East China region reached 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Due to insufficient demand and the pressure of traders’ shipments, they continue to offer discounts, with a focus on the replenishment of ship cargo in late October. The market has increased upside down space, and today we are paying attention to the price adjustments made by factories. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate weakly in the short term

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated and fell in September. On September 1st, the market price of aniline was 10125 yuan/ton, and on September 30th it was 10062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% during the month and a decrease of 26.68% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market continued to rise in September due to insufficient momentum, resulting in an overall decline. At the beginning of the month, the reduction in aniline supply from the East China factory, coupled with short shutdowns of factories in other regions, tightened supply and boosted market confidence. Upstream goods flow smoothly, downstream actively enters the market, low-priced goods flow well, and aniline prices rise. Subsequently, the price of aniline rose to a high level, and on the 11th, the raw material pure benzene was lowered by 300 yuan/ton. Due to cost constraints, aniline was lowered by 200 yuan/ton. Pure benzene has not stopped falling, while aniline continues to experience a slight decline. At the end of the month, major factories raised prices, with a collective increase of 100 yuan/ton, and trading remained relatively stable on the market.

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market experienced multiple downturns in September, influenced by a macro bearish sentiment. In early September, there was a broad decline, although there was a rebound in the latter half of the month, pure benzene production remained at a high level, with a significant supply-demand imbalance and a tendency to fall but difficult to rise. On September 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8613 yuan/ton, and on September 28th, the average price of pure benzene was 82428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.31% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current purchasing power in the aniline market is average, approaching the National Day holiday, and downstream stocking is coming to an end. The support for raw material pure benzene is slightly weak, and the positive support is insufficient. It is expected that the aniline market will consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has seen a significant upward trend since September. As of September 30th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17942 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.46% from 15146 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The recent heavy rainfall in the main production areas of Southeast Asia has affected the rubber cutting process, resulting in slow supply improvement in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and a significant increase in natural rubber raw material prices. As of September 30th, the price of Thai glue was 78.00 baht/kg, an increase of 16.07% from the price of 67.20 baht/kg at the end of August; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 18600 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.86% from 14000 yuan/ton at the end of August.

The natural rubber inventory continues to maintain a trend of destocking, which provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of September 30, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 411800 tons, a decrease of 48300 tons from 460100 tons in late August.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices fluctuated upward this week (9.19-9.29). As of September 29th, spot nickel was reported at 129058 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.33%.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, marking the first such cut since 2020 and exceeding expectations, ushering in the first monetary policy easing cycle in four years. At the same time, the decline of the US dollar has made metals priced in US dollars more attractive to buyers using other currencies. Promote a significant increase in nickel prices and reverse the recent unfavorable market trend.

On the supply side: The situation of oversupply in the nickel market continues, with an increase in growth rate. As of September 27th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 25504 tons, an increase of 2659 tons from last week; On September 27th, LME nickel inventory was 130308 tons, an increase of 6174 tons from last week.

On the demand side: Consumer performance is average, with prices rising and users slowing down their purchases. The stainless steel market is also constrained by a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. As of the end of September, the spot price of stainless steel was 12507.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% from 12757.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.21%. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries is still acceptable, and customers have a strong need to continue.

Market forecast: Macro bullish boost, but inventory pressure, insufficient demand support, and short-term consolidation of nickel prices are expected to be the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 23rd to 27th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2380 yuan/ton to 2478 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.13% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.10%. Supported by a positive macro outlook, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling. At the same time, the arrival volume of foreign ships is low, port inventory is depleted, and port methanol prices are also relatively strong.

As of the close on September 27th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2520 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2449 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2412 yuan/ton. It closed at 2448 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 1.83%. The trading volume was 617462 lots, and the position was 650407 lots, with a daily increase of -4754.

As of September 27th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2050 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2740 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2305 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2125-2130 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost, imported coal has a price advantage compared to domestic coal, and the demand for imported coal from domestic terminals remains high. It is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in the later stage; In terms of non electricity, the overall demand recovery in the cement industry has fallen short of expectations, with an increase in locally suspended projects and a lack of tight connection between new and old projects. Downstream demand is lower than in previous years and the decline has expanded compared to the previous period. The chemical industry still maintains normal operations after a small amount of pre holiday storage and transportation, making it difficult to support the market. Overall, it is expected that coal prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend before the National Day holiday. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: mainstream factories in Shandong are operating with reduced load, resulting in a decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream chloride: There are factories in East China with expectations of inventory recovery, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no plan to start or stop dimethyl ether, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, Shandong equipment maintenance; Inner Mongolia installation restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 26th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 105.00-106.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, the overall supply of goods is abundant, and the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate.