September 25 Asian ethylene glycol closed at $ 872 / tonne, down $ 28 / tonne yesterday.

September 22, the US styrene market stabilized, FOB US Gulf reported 60.8-61.3 cents / lb, FOB US poster 1337.6-1348.6 US dollars / ton.

September 22 London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc stocks for 263400 tons, compared with the previous day down 1350 tons, down 0.5%.

September 24 zinc (market) commodity index was 146.79, compared with the highest point of 155.02 points (2017-08-21) fell 5.31%, compared with November 22, 2015 the lowest point 72.28 points rose 103.09%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

First, the price trend:

According to the business monitoring data show that the average price of the domestic market around 1048.89 yuan / ton, the weekend the average domestic market price of 1101.11 yuan / ton, the price increase of 4.98%, is the domestic caustic soda in a high consolidation trend. September 22 caustic soda commodity index was 158.43, unchanged from yesterday, a record high during the cycle, compared with the lowest point on March 29, 2015 73.27 points rose 116.23%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far))

Second, the market analysis

Products: domestic domestic caustic soda market this week, a high consolidation market. Hebei current 32% ion-exchange membrane base offer in the 1100-1200 yuan / ton, manufacturers operating rate is low, the price has pulled up trend is expected to run the region after the multi-dimensional stable operation, but does not rule out the possibility of rising. Hebei Cangzhou Port Binhai chemical plant normal operation of the price of alkali to 4200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price can be negotiated, enterprises can still take the goods. Due to environmental impact, domestic caustic soda supply tight.

Industrial chain: the upstream salt market relative to the smooth operation of the main, by the Shandong regional liquid alkali prices continue to boost the impact of Henan, Fujian, the market price of liquid caustic soda up the situation, shipping in good condition. And downstream chemical fiber, paper, printing and dyeing on the caustic soda demand is acceptable.

Third, the market outlook forecast

Business analysts believe that: the upstream salt market to maintain the general market, the demand for downstream alumina is still available, and domestic supply of caustic soda supply tight. Business analysts believe that short-term caustic soda or continue to maintain high operating conditions, the price or in the 1100-1200 yuan / ton, specifically to see the downstream market demand.

In the third week of September, caprolactam and downstream PA6 sections continued to maintain a strong upward trend. According to the price of the business to monitor the price trend, caprolactam (liquid) rose 662.5 yuan / ton this week, or 4.54%; PA6 (conventional spinning in the sticky) rose 266.67 yuan / ton this week, or 1.52%. Friday (September 22) afternoon Jiangsu and Zhejiang spot inquiry in the basic 18,000 yuan / ton (cash from mentioning). Manufacturers also said that “no cash”, some of the orders in early September have not yet delivered.

Tuesday, Sinopec caprolactam listing price raised to 15,100 yuan / ton, followed by Fujian Tianchen, Nanjing Oriental also have the listing price raised to 15,200 yuan / ton. And some private factories (such as Shandong Haili, Shandong Fang Ming, Henan Shenma, Hubei Sanning, etc.) listing price is as high as 15,500 yuan / ton, the market once again open the “speed up” model, as of Friday (September 22), the mainstream of liquid transactions to reference to 15500-15700 yuan / ton, solid mainstream transaction reference to 16700-16900 yuan / ton. Like the PA6, the same side of the factory supply tight.

On the other hand, as the Chinese market continues to grow in demand for the Asian caprolactam market, Asia Caprolactam rose $ 50 / tonne this week to close at 1810 CFR Far East and 1830 CFR in Southeast Asia as of Thursday 21 September.

From the device point of view, as of this weekend, in addition to Shanxi Yang coal 100,000 tons of equipment, the rest include Shijiazhuang Refining and Nanjing Oriental equipment has been opened, the industry’s overall load of more than 9 percent. But after 10 months, Hebei Cangzhou Xuyang device upgrade, Nanjing Oriental line 200,000 tons parking maintenance. Coupled with the “nineteenth” period of logistics and transport side of the limited and “season” orders support, caprolactam and PA6 slices are still good lead short-term.

Business analysts believe that: the current situation, caprolactam and downstream PA6 supply and demand has been found relatively dynamic balance. In the cash stock under the premise of tight, still remain optimistic in October to judge.