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LME August 3 Metal Review

London, August 3 news, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper five-year rise, as the dollar fell after the weaker-than-expected employment data released, but the trade tension between the United States and China dragged down the copper week this week.

At 3:00 pm on August 3, London time (00:00 on August 4, Beijing time), the index three-month copper closed up 1.1%, at $6,206 per ton, at an intraday low of $6,074.50, and hit two weeks on Thursday. The low is $6,066.

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In July, the number of new jobs in the United States was less than expected. It may be that it is difficult for companies to find qualified workers, and the unemployment rate is falling, pointing to the tightening of the employment market.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 157,000 in July. The market had previously expected to be 190,000. In June, it was revised to an increase of 248,000. The initial value increased by 213,000. .

The US unemployment rate was 3.9% in July, the market is expected to be 3.9%, and June is 4%.
However, metal prices have been limited, after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the proposal to impose import tariffs on US$60 billion worth of US goods is rational and modest, warning the United States that if the trade war escalates, China reserves the right to take further countermeasures.

The Chinese Ministry of Finance said on Friday that the State Council Customs Tariff Commission decided to impose tariffs of 25%, 20%, 10%, and 5% on 5,207 tax items originating in the United States. If the US is willing to go its own way and implement its tariff increase measures, China will implement the above-mentioned tariff increase measures.

On July 11, 18, the US government issued measures to impose tariffs on goods imported from China of about 200 billion US dollars, and solicited public opinions on the measures. On August 2, the US announced that it would increase the tariff rate imposed on the above-mentioned 200 billion US dollars of goods from 10% to 25%. The US measures have deviated from the consensus of the two sides, leading to an escalation of trade friction between China and the United States, serious violations of relevant rules of the World Trade Organization, and damage to our national interests and people’s interests.

“Trade disputes have dragged down metal prices, and as long as the dispute continues, I don’t expect a sustained upward trend,” said Daniel Brieseman, an analyst at German Commercial Bank.

He added that commodity prices are supported by a fall in the dollar.

The dollar weakened, boosting the price of dollar-denominated assets such as copper.

LME copper stocks fell by 825 tons to 256,625 tons, which has been reduced by 35% since the end of March, the lowest since January 22.

The People’s Bank of China said on Friday that in order to prevent macro financial risks and promote the stable operation of financial institutions, the central bank decided to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward sales from 0 to 20%; this is not a capital regulation, nor an administrative Measures, but part of the macroprudential policy framework.

Three-month aluminum closed down 0.3% at $2,028 a tonne.

The three-month lead was flat at $2,115 per tonne.

Three-month tin fell 0.03% to $19,600 per tonne.

Three-month zinc closed up 2.7% to $2,631 a tonne.

Three-month nickel closed up 1.7% at $13,550 a tonne.

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Low stocks, styrene prices rose on August 2

First, the price trend

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The price of styrene rose on August 2. According to the data of the business community, the average price of the sample enterprises on August 2 was 11,945.83 yuan / ton, and the average price of the sample enterprises on August 1 was 11,675 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.32%, and the price rose by 25.9% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, market analysis

Product: Styrene prices rose on August 2. PetroChina Northeast and Tianjin Daxie offer 12,000 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, Sinopec Beijing Yanshan Chemical offer 11900 yuan / ton, Qilu, Qingdao refinery and chemical quotation 12,000 yuan / ton, up from the previous trading day 250 yuan / ton, Shandong Yuhuang offer 12,000 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Daqing Petrochemical’s 225,000 tons/year styrene plant was parked on July 23 and is expected to restart in September. The import of styrene to the port is limited, the inventory is reduced, and the price of styrene continues to rise.

Industry chain: The price of pure benzene in the upstream is high and the cost of styrene is supported. The downstream PS and EPS were affected by the environmental protection supervision, which affected the procurement positively, and the price increased. The styrene business mentality was good, the market turnover was higher, and the corporate price rose.

Third, the market outlook

Affected by the source of imports, the inventory level is low, so business analysts believe that: styrene prices are mainly based on rising. The market should pay more attention to the guidance of the market and the trend of the bulk futures.

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Rare earth ore tungsten mining index issued, resource-based listed companies benefit

In order to protect and rationally develop superior mineral resources, in accordance with the relevant regulations on the management of specific mining types for protective mining, the total mining control of rare earth ore and tungsten mines will continue in 2018.

In the past five years, the total amount of mining control indicators for rare earth ore and tungsten mines has not changed much. In contrast, whether it is rare earth or tungsten concentrate, the mining index in 2018 is significantly higher than before, up 14% and 9.5% respectively.

Affected by the “review” action of the environmental verification in the first half of the year and the continuous rectification of the industry, some rare earth separation enterprises were forced to shut down, resulting in shrinking supply and benefiting the price of rare earth. As of the end of June 2018, the price of rare earth lanthanum oxide was 340,000 yuan / ton, up 10% from the beginning of the year 310,000 yuan / ton. The market generally expects that the industry rectification will be more normal and stricter in the second half of the year, and at the same time, the possible acquisition and storage actions (the first meeting of rare earth storage and storage will be held in mid-July), the price of rare earth is expected to continue to improve.

The average monthly price of tungsten concentrate in the first half of 2018 was 110,800 yuan/ton, up by 33,100 yuan/ton from 77,700 yuan/ton in the same period of last year, and an increase of 0.83 million from the monthly average price of 205,000 yuan/ton in the second half of last year. Yuan / ton. The market’s domestic tungsten market forecast for 2018 is basically a steady upward trend. The economy that continues to rise at home and abroad will have a certain increase in demand for tungsten, but the increase in raw material prices will also increase the supply. Therefore, compared with 2017, the supply and demand will be reduced. Considering that the main application field of tungsten is in the field of cemented carbide, sales of excavating machinery in the first half of the year increased by 60% year-on-year, indicating tungsten

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Lithium carbonate prices have been falling all the way, and the signs of warming in August are expected to be weak

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the comprehensive price of the domestic lithium carbonate market in July can be described as a sharp decline, and the market is in a downturn. In July, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 110,117.74 yuan / ton, down -20.96% compared with the beginning of the month. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 124,129.16 yuan / ton, down -14.51% compared with the beginning of the month.

The demand for lithium carbonate in the market began to be sluggish in July, and orders fell, which led to a serious price decline. The adjustment of the subsidy policy amount also has a certain impact on the battery energy density. At present, the high-energy density ternary power battery on the market has been popular, the market share has increased rapidly, while the lithium iron phosphate battery has been cold in the market. The operating rate and order growth of a large number of power battery companies are not ideal, and the lithium iron phosphate material is not ideal. The willingness to purchase is not strong, and many lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have stopped production and processed inventory. As a result, the demand for lithium carbonate is greatly reduced.

From mid-July to the end of the month, the downstream demand of the market has not yet recovered significantly, and the order volume of enterprises has shrunk. In order to digest inventories and increase orders, enterprises have continued to cut prices. Coupled with small and medium-sized lithium carbonate suppliers to seize the market for low-cost shipments, put pressure on the price of lithium carbonate. The spot transaction price continued to decline.

According to business analysts, if the lithium carbonate market has not been stimulated by good news, the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate and the recovery will be weak.

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The United States and Europe made the agreement for a tariff dispute, while the prospects for the agreement are still worried.

US President Trump met with the European Commission Chairman Juncker at the White House on the 25th. The two sides reached an agreement on trade issues, agreed to suspend the new tariffs and reduce trade barriers. The EU promised to import more LNG and soybeans from the United States. The trade war in the US and Europe has temporarily eased, but as the details of the agreement have not yet been implemented, the prospects for the agreement remain hidden.

According to reports, Trump and Juncker held a joint press conference after the meeting, the two sides agreed to work together to make non-automotive industrial products to zero tariffs, zero trade barriers and zero subsidies, and reduce services, chemicals, drugs Trade barriers in areas such as soybeans promote trade between the two sides. Europe and the United States also agreed to suspend tariff increases during trade negotiations and cooperate in reforming the World Trade Organization to combat unfair trade practices such as theft of intellectual property rights.

Both the United States and Europe have declared that they have achieved results. Trump described the warmth of the meeting and reached a breakthrough that no one had imagined before. “This is a big day of free and fair trade.” He also said that the United States and Europe “love each other” and hope that the two sides will strengthen trade links and achieve a win-win situation. Trump specifically mentioned the soy and liquefied natural gas agreement, saying that the EU “will buy a lot of soybeans soon”, the United States and Europe will discuss details in the short term.

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Juncker said that the United States made major concessions, emphasizing that Europe and the United States are allies rather than enemies, stressing that tariffs should be lowered rather than raised. European officials disagreed on the outcome of the meeting. German Economy Minister Artemier praised the talks for breakthroughs, avoided trade wars and saved millions of jobs, but French Economy Minister Lemer stressed that non-tariff barriers and agricultural products (5.450) , 0.06, 1.11%) should not be placed on the negotiating table, and asked the United States to show sincerity on steel and aluminum tariffs.

Although Trump and Juncker both agreed to reach an agreement, the content is not clear, and the details remain to be finalized in the future negotiations, and need to be agreed by the EU member states. Both Trump and Juncker pointed out that if any party in Europe and the United States stops negotiations, the agreement may be pulled down. The US Department of Commerce is investigating whether importing EU cars threatens national security. It is expected that the results will be as early as September, but Trump did not specifically mention automobile tariffs on the day of the negotiations. It is estimated that he will retain the bargaining chips.

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchien said that the United States and Europe will first negotiate steel and aluminum tariffs, and hope to resolve the dispute as soon as possible. During the negotiations, Washington will not impose tariffs on imported European cars.

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Former White House economist Bowen said that Trump and Juncker’s wording showed both parties’ willingness to resolve trade issues, but Trump’s policy was erratic and could send a free post on social networking sites, ruining the outcome of the talks.

U.S., director of the Global Business and Economic Program of the US think tank Atlantic (4.400, -0.01, -0.23%), said that the real-time outbreak of trade wars in Europe and the United States does not mean that the problem has been resolved. The two sides only return to the basic consultation stage. Soybean and LNG are not the most important trade commodities. I believe that if Washington does not withdraw steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU will not make too many concessions.