Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic toluene Market as a whole was weak last week. The price of toluene fell compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of enterprises declined and remained stable at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5112 yuan per ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5002 yuan per ton, with a decline of 2.16%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices fell earlier this week. Due to the influence of the Dragon Boat Festival holidays on the weekend, the mainstream turnover in the market is around 4950 yuan/ton. Toluene manufacturers are losing money. Port stocks in East China are around 53,000 tons, up 0.16 million tons from 51,300 tons on May 30 (last Thursday). Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and it is expected that demand side will restrict the rise of toluene price in June.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, affected by the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and trade wars, European and American crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since January this week. Brent crude oil range was between $60.63 and $64.49 per ton, with a weekly decline of about 5.99%.

On the downstream side, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is declining, downstream PTA plant is unstable, upstream cost surface oil prices continue to decline, naphtha and MX are difficult to support, cost demand is double negative, short-term PX price is weak; on the TDI market, end users are mostly stockpiling in the market at present, demand has been obviously overdrawn, follow-up market is difficult to say optimistic, while TDI suppliers are large. After bulk delivery, inventory pressure is likely to weaken. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI market ends weakly and steadily. Overall demand is constrained by the rise in toluene Market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that in general, the market of toluene is still expected to be weak next week. Focus on whether US crude oil can sustain $50/barrel, vulnerable shocks are more likely; downstream PX device starts, the market mainly focuses on Sinochem Hongrun PX device starts, but at present other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, inventory continues to be high, the market is in a stalemate stage.

On June 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 5th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recently, domestic nitric acid prices have risen, with the market price of 1760 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The rising trend of nitric acid prices has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has risen slightly, and the price quoted by manufacturers in northern areas has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The price of raw materials in the upstream is rising, which has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic market of 1_antimony ingots shook down, with the average price of domestic market at 43250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 38875 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 10.12%.

On June 3, the Sb Commodity Index was 54.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.11% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 15.20% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: As for antimony concentrate, the cost of domestic antimony ore and antimony ingot raw materials has been further reduced. Most manufacturers have saved costs by purchasing Russian antimony ore instead. The pressure of shipment of antimony oxide raw materials separated from domestic antimony ore and lead plant is very high, and the price continues to decline. Antimony trioxide Market follows the trend of antimony ingot this month, and the price fluctuation is lower. At the end of the month, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 36 000 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 37 500 yuan/ton. This month’s trading situation as a whole is light, downstream wait-and-see, buy less fun.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot market shocks fell by 10.12% this month, although manufacturers and traders have a strong price sentiment, but by the actual bad trading pressure, downstream market is still short, buy is not strong, prices go down. Near the end of the month, the price of antimony ingots has broken the 40,000 yuan/ton barrier as a whole. Although the tender sentiment of producers and suppliers is strong, the purchasing intention of downstream is still low, lacking the support of transaction, and the price is difficult to maintain stability. By the end of the month, 2_high bismuth antimony ingots are 370 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots are 380 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots are 39250 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots are 50 yuan/ton.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Because in recent years, under the pressure of capital, some enterprises can reduce the range of inquiries with good trading terms to close the transaction. With little change in supply and demand, the antimony market price is expected to continue to decline slowly next week, and suppliers will continue to wait and see.

On June 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 58.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.12% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 21.27% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained low, the phthalic anhydride market in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have maintained just-needed procurement, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5600-5700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6200 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price fluctuation maintains stable, the turnover of phthalic acid is general, the port phthalic acid inventory is low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market is low, the import phthalic acid cost fluctuation, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6000 yuan/ton.

Over the past decade, the Asian polycarbonate (PC) market has fallen to an all-time low. During the Sino-US trade war, it may continue to be hit by a large supply situation, and the situation of adequate supply may continue.

由于供应过剩，PC现货价格延续了下跌趋势，而需求却在下降，尤其是在关键的中国市场的进口需求。数据显示，6月份市场讨论度下降，通用成型级PC在中国的平均出货量为2000美元/吨CIF(成本、保险和运费)。

Due to oversupply, PC spot prices continue to decline, while demand is declining, especially in key Chinese markets. Data show that market discussion declined in June, with the average shipment of GM PC in China being $2,000 per ton CIF (cost, insurance and freight).

该级别的现货价格比前一周下降了50美元/吨，较上个月的水平下降了约9%，价格处于近十年来的历史最低点。数据显示，以到岸价计算，GP成型级PC的价格上一次维持在每吨2000美元的水平是在2009年4月。

Spot prices at this level have fallen by $50 per ton from the previous week, about 9 per cent from last month’s level, and are at their lowest level in nearly a decade. Data show that the price of GP-grade PC was last maintained at the level of $2000 per ton in CIF terms in April 2009.

In the oversupply market, PC prices in Asia are seen as close to bottoming.

“China’s warehouses are full of PC stocks,” said a Northeast Asian market person. While import demand is weak, the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, making imported materials inexpensive.

This pessimism is further exacerbated by the ongoing Sino-US trade war. With end users becoming cautious about their commitment to PC resin imports, the trade war has left the market uncertain.

While PC prices are spiraling down, the price of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) in China is also falling in the face of sluggish demand. Traditionally, PC is a more expensive engineering plastic that can compete with PMMA in some applications.

As of May 23, the price of GP-grade PMMA in China was $2150 per ton CFR, down $100 from last month.

PC is widely used in automobile industry and residential industry. It is used to manufacture household appliances, household appliances and some building materials.