Commodity Index: On June 21, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 101.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.13% from 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08) and up 6.17% from 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: On June 1st, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16900 yuan/ton, and on the 21st, 16633.33 yuan/ton. This month’s quotation showed a slight downward trend, but this week’s overall market was stable.

Main points of analysis: According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyacrylamide is about 16500-18000 yuan/ton for cations (PAM, molecular weight 12 million), and about 100-12000 yuan/ton for anions (PAM, molecular weight 12 million).

Industry chain: Recently, some traders said that due to environmental protection start-up factors, the amount of upstream products of polyacrylamide increased, resulting in a certain increase in the price of polyacrylamide, and other traders said that its supply is no problem, the price has not changed. Overall, this week’s small change in the market of polyacrylamide is a small adjustment in the distribution price.

Future market forecast: Focus on the start-up of future manufacturers, there is no big change in downstream demand. According to the current overall market supply, domestic polyacrylamide market prices will not change very much.

On June 20, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 54.01, down 0.26 points from yesterday, down 55.04% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 11.54% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5500-5600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5300 yuan/ton. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5500 to 5600 yuan/ton, the market is weak and shocks are dominant. The quotation trend of enterprises is slightly declining, downstream construction is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is gloomy.

Recently, the execution price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 5900 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7000 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be 5500 yuan/ton approx.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the price monitoring of business associations: as of June 19, the market price trend of melamine was temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream domestic price of melamine is 5300-7200 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last three-phase.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market price trend is temporarily stable. At present, the manufacturers are offering good prices, but the overall performance is general, the downstream demand is light, and the market lacks strong favorable factors to support.

Industry chain: Upstream urea market is stable and slightly loosened, while Shandong market is slightly downgraded.

3. Future market forecast:

According to the business association forecast: the short-term domestic melamine market will be mainly stable.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, since June, the domestic cobalt market has been unable to rise, cobalt price shocks have been adjusted, small shocks have fallen, and the overall cobalt price has not been able to rebound. As of June 17, the cobalt price was 240500.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from 242333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Compared with the previous period, the cobalt price fell slightly in June, and the cobalt market remained basically stable.

II. Market Analysis

MB quotation in the international market fluctuated and fell in June. The global market of cobalt was cold. The international price of cobalt was unable to rise. The falling international price of cobalt dragged down the domestic market of cobalt.

The cobalt price in LME market fell after June, and the international cobalt market lost its momentum to rise. The global cobalt market was obviously short, while the domestic market was dragged down.

Sales of Smart Wearable Devices Increased

On June 11, IDC consulted and released the Quarterly Tracking Report of China’s Wearable Equipment Market, which said that in the first quarter of 2019, China’s wearable equipment market shipped 19.5 million units, an increase of 34.7% over the same period last year. Basic wearable devices (wearable devices that do not support third-party applications) grew by 25.5% year-on-year, while smart wearable devices grew by 84.6% year-on-year. The sales of intelligent wearable equipment have increased greatly, which is beneficial to the growth of demand in cobalt market.

Sales of New Energy Vehicles

In the afternoon of June 12, the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association showed that in May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 112,000 and 104,000 respectively, up 16.9% and 1.8% respectively from the same period last year. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 480,000 and 464,000 respectively, up 46.0% and 41.5% respectively from the same period last year. New energy automobile sales increased in May, but the growth rate further slowed down. The overall downward trend of industry production and sales has not been effectively alleviated. The demand of cobalt market is lower than expected, which is bad for cobalt market.

Increased demand for cobalt due to increased sales of mobile phones

According to the data of CITIC, in May 2019, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market increased by 1.2% and 4.8% year on year. From January to May 2019, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market dropped by 4.8% compared with the same period in 18 years. Although the sales of mobile phones in 2019 still declined compared with the same period in 18 years, the steady increase in sales of mobile phones in April and May brought good profits to the market and increased sales of mobile phones. The demand of dynamic cobalt market is favorable to the demand of future cobalt market.

policies and regulations

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. The introduction of the scheme has obvious advantages for automobile and household appliances industries. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in automobile and household appliances industries will rise in the future, and the demand for cobalt in the future will rise, which will have obvious advantages for cobalt price. However, the impact of policies and regulations has a certain lag, and the cobalt market has insufficient momentum to rise in the short term. But the overall future cobalt market is good.

3. Future prospects:

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, international cobalt price shocks fell in June, global cobalt market performance was weak, domestic cobalt market was bullish, domestic cobalt market fell slightly, but there was a stable basis, cobalt price fell slightly. The performance of new energy automobiles is sluggish, and there is a big gap for Cobalt City. However, the recovery of mobile phone market and the rapid growth of smart wearable devices make up for the shortage of new energy vehicles, and the demand of cobalt market is growing steadily. Overall, the demand of cobalt market is growing steadily. At present, the global cobalt market is still in a state of oversupply. Cobalt market is not motivated to rise. However, with the issuance of 5G mobile phone licenses in China, 5G renewal has been put on the agenda, and the national consumption upgrading policy is also better for cobalt market. In the future, the price of cobalt is at a low level, and there is little room for the price to fall, but the overall supply of cobalt is in excess of demand, and the driving force of cobalt price rise is insufficient. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, domestic cobalt price rebounds or becomes the lowest point of cobalt price in June, and the turning point of stopping the decline and rebounding.

On June 17, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, up 1.98 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen, with an average price of 3062.5 yuan per ton as of 17 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 17th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11880 yuan/ton as of the 17th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.