Global Data said that driven by Asia and the Middle East, global polypropylene production is expected to increase by 34% from 88.57 million tons per year in 2019 to 118.6 million tons per year in 2023.

According to the company’s report Global Prospects for Polypropylene Industry 2023 – Prospects for Capacity and Capital Expenditure, there are about 108 polypropylene plants planned and announced for production in the next four years, mainly in Asia and the Middle East.

Asia’s polypropylene production capacity is expected to increase from 51.61 million tons per year in 2019 to 65.33 million tons per year in 2023, with an average annual growth of 5.9%. In 2023, China’s production capacity in the region will increase by about 11.63 million tons per year. The main new capacity will come from Wuhan Polypropylene Plant No. 2 of Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2023.

Dayan and Kharade, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said: “As urbanization progresses and income levels continue to rise, demand for polypropylene, mainly from packaging, is boosting large-scale capacity growth in China and India. These two countries are expected to account for 40% of global capacity growth in the outlook period.

GlobalData identified the Middle East as the second highest area for PP production growth, with an average annual growth rate of 11.8% from 9.22 million tons per year in 2019 to 14.8 million tons per year in 2023. The main new capacity will come from an announced plant, Jam Polypropylene’s Assaluyeh Polypropylene Plant 2, which will reach 550,000 tons per year by 2023.

By 2023, Russia will increase production capacity by about 2.53 million tons per year in all countries.

Africa will be the fourth highest region, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.15 million tons by 2023, up from 1.49 million tons in 2019. By 2023, Egypt’s contribution to Africa will reach about 1.33 million tons, ranking first in Africa. The main additional capacity will come from the Ain Sokhna polypropylene plant of Taril Petrochemical Company, which will reach 880,000 tons per year by 2023.

North American polypropylene production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, from 8.97 million tons per year in 2019 to 1.95 million tons per year in 2023. By 2023, the United States is expected to be the fastest-growing country in the region, with an additional capacity of 1.15 million tons per year.

On June 26, the “China Plastic Industry Congress 2019″ sponsored by Dalian Commodity Exchange was held in Hangzhou. The theme of the Congress is “Innovating Industry Services and Promoting the Combination of Industry and Finance”. As a promising chemical product in the market this year, the related situation of styrene is noticeable. At the meeting, Li Guodong, deputy manager of Organic Chemistry Department of East China Branch of Sinopec Chemical Sales Co., Ltd., shared the current market situation of styrene.

Adrian Li

From 2014 to 2018, domestic styrene production increased from 6.95 million tons to 9.21 million tons, an increase of 32.5%. In terms of apparent consumption, domestic apparent consumption was 8.42 million tons in 2014, and increased by 2.6 million tons to 1.12 million tons in 2018, an increase of 30.9%. The growth of production capacity and consumption is basically the same. The starting rate has increased year by year, from 67.48% in 2014 to 88.06% in 2018.

According to enterprises, Petrochemical accounts for 25% of the production capacity of styrene, petroleum accounts for 14%, private enterprises account for 29%, and other state-owned enterprises account for 16%. Regionally, the largest proportion of styrene production capacity is 43% in East China, 23% in North China, 14% in South China and 12% in Northeast China.

On the import side, the import volume of styrene declined year by year, and the import dependence decreased to 26% in 2018. Specifically, between 2014 and 2017, Korea’s supply of goods accounted for 32% to 38% of the total domestic imports. Since June 23, 2018, anti-dumping duties on imported styrene originating in Korea, Taiwan and the United States have been imposed, with tariffs ranging from 3.8% to 55.7%. Affected by this, in 2018, South Korea’s share of goods fell to 12%, while the United States’share of goods fell to 4.6%.

From the downstream consumption situation, the main downstream industries are EPS, PS, ABS. The total number of customers is only 70, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in the top five enterprises in the industry. The start-up rate of downstream industries is not high except ABS, 41%-71%.

In terms of price trend, Li Guodong Introductory, looking at the Jiangsu Styrene Market in the past five years, the price range in 2014 is 6400-12100 yuan/ton, 6600-11200 yuan/ton in 2015, 7700-10900 yuan/ton in 2016, 8180-12000 yuan/ton in 2017 and 7750-14000 yuan/ton in 2018. CFR China and domestic styrene price trends are consistent, styrene and the main raw material pure phenyl benzol are highly synchronized.

“In recent years, the styrene industry has maintained a good profit margin. In 2018, the styrene industry maintained a high profit throughout the year, especially in May-June, the profit remained in 2000-4000 yuan/ton. Li Guodong said that there are two main reasons for the high profits in 2018. The first is the shrinkage of both import and domestic sources, the tight domestic spot, the misjudgment of anti-dumping and the external operating environment in the industry, and the low inventory operation in East China’s main port for a long time. Secondly, in terms of main raw materials, pure benzene operates at a low level all year round, and ethylene has been falling all the way.

From 2016 to 2019, the inventory data of the main ports of styrene in East China are much lower than that of the same period in previous years in the first and third quarters of 2018. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, on June 6, inventory in East China’s main port fell to 206,000 tons and commodity inventory to 123,000 tons, which meant that the market’s available spot volume was almost exhausted. Inventories rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018. On March 18, 2019, stocks reached an all-time high of 350,500 tons.

“In the next five years, the styrene market will change from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market, and the era of industry-wide profitability will come to an end.” Li Guodong said that with the start-up of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons by the end of 2019 and the start-up of Zhonghai Shell, Sinochem Quanzhou and Gulei Petrochemical Plant in 2020, the domestic supply and demand pattern will change dramatically and the import volume will decrease dramatically. After 2020, the pattern of styrene trade in Northeast Asia will change fundamentally.

According to the monitoring of business associations, on June 26, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to fall sharply. The average domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1200 yuan/ton, which was 6.14% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

At the end of June, the demand of the hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam, paper making and cotton textile industry is not enough. The market for hydrogen peroxide has fallen. Among them, Hebei Zhengyuan 1000 yuan per ton, the price fell 100 yuan per ton. Shandong Haineng quoted 1120 yuan/ton, the price fell 60 yuan/ton, Luxi quoted 940 yuan/ton, and the price fell 40 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream quotation 1100 yuan / ton, the price fell 50 yuan / ton.

Business society hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that July is still in the off-season of hydrogen peroxide consumption, hydrogen peroxide Market in the future increased pressure.

On June 25, the fluorite commodity index was 107.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.37% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 119.24% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend maintained a high level, the average domestic fluorite price was 3075 yuan/ton on the 25th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field was slightly tight, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market rose on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 25th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 25 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12040 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

Price trends:

The price of acetic anhydride has surged this week, according to data from business associations. As of June 21, the average price quoted by acetic anhydride enterprises was 4950.00 yuan/ton, which was 1.71% higher than the price quoted by acetic anhydride at the beginning of the week at 4866.67 yuan/ton, and 40.00% lower than the price of acetic anhydride in the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, domestic acetic anhydride factory quotations rose, market prices rose. As of June 21, most of the region’s ex-factory quotations were between 4750 and 4900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price rose. The actual transaction price in Shandong was about 4800 yuan/ton. The price rose. The market quotation was the reference price. The actual transaction price was based on actual negotiation. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have higher equipment start-up rate, limited inventory, downstream customers are cautious in picking up goods, general sales of acetic anhydride downstream, and general momentum of acetic anhydride rise in the future.

Acetic anhydride raw material acetic acid price shocks fell this week, methanol price shocks rose. As of June 21, acetic acid quoted 2733.33 yuan/ton, down 83.34 yuan/ton, or 2.96 percent, compared with the price of acetic acid at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of methanol surged. As of June 21, the price of methanol was 2190.00 yuan/ton. This week, the price of methanol rose by 0.18%. The overall cost of acetic anhydride fell, which had a negative impact on the market of acetic anhydride. The momentum of acetic anhydride in the future was limited.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for acetic anhydride in business associations, believes that this week acetic anhydride raw material acetic acid prices fell, methanol prices shocked up, acetic anhydride costs fell, acetic anhydride prices had limited momentum to rise, and pressure to fall was greater. But in recent years, acetic anhydride manufacturers have a high start-up rate, limited inventory, demand, recent downstream procurement on demand, procurement enthusiasm is general, acetic anhydride sales pressure is large, which has a great impact on the market of acetic anhydride. Generally speaking, acetic anhydride market is more bearish than bullish, acetic anhydride drop pressure is larger, but due to limited inventory, tight supply, acetic anhydride drop space is limited, it is expected that the future market of acetic anhydride weak shocks maintain stability.