Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The average price of powder monoammonium is 2150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2150 yuan/ton at the end of the week, which is 2.27% lower than that of August 1 (2200.00).

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate dropped slightly this week. The average price of 64 diammonium granules was 2500 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, and 2476 yuan per ton at the end of the week, down by 0.93%. Compared with August 1 (2500.00), it decreased by 0.93%.

II. Market Analysis

Monoammonium: The domestic market for powdered monoammonium is cold and stable. Anhui province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan – 2150 yuan / ton, smooth start. In Hubei, 55% of ammonium powder is quoted at about 2050 yuan/ton, while 60% of ammonium powder is quoted at 2150-2250 yuan/ton. Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2100 yuan / ton, and started smoothly. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong province is 2050 yuan-2150 yuan/ton, which is stable. Sichuan province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted about 2050 yuan/ton. The new orders of monoammonium phosphate Market are insufficient to follow up, and the overall trading atmosphere is cold.

Diammonium: Demand for domestic diammonium is sluggish. It is now in the stage of horizontal consolidation. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei province is offered 2450-2550 yuan per ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is offered 2400-2500 yuan per ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan and Guizhou is offered 2500 yuan per ton. The market of diammonium phosphate started slowly in autumn, and the market demand at home and abroad was insufficient.

Industry chain: Domestic phosphoric acid market prices continue to fall, ending the rising tide. Domestic sulphur market prices fell, lack of information guidance, refineries in all regions continued to lower prices. Phosphate ore market is weak and stable, the overall market has little change, and the turnover is general. Domestic liquid ammonia market has not changed much and its performance is stable. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises take goods on demand, the market is still weak, and the autumn fertilizer market starts slowly.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), the price of phosphorus chemical industry rose or fell by 0 commodities, 2 commodities fell, and 3 commodities rose or fell by 0. The main commodities falling were phosphoric acid (-3.23%) and diammonium phosphate (-0.93%). In the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), there were 1 commodity rising in the list of fertilizer prices, 3 commodities falling, and 5 commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were liquid ammonia (0.31%) and falling were ammonium sulfate (-1.54%), diammonium phosphate (-0.93%) and potassium sulfate (-0.81%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that ammonium prices remained stable on Monday and raw material prices continued to fall. Although the autumn market is approaching, downstream fertilizer companies are not willing to take delivery. Ammonium market prices are expected to stabilize or decline in the short term. The disadvantaged market of diammonium has been consolidated and turned to the weak domestic market. It is expected that the market price of diammonium will continue to be weak in the later period, and cautious operation is recommended.

On August 22, the rare earth index was 373 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 393,500 yuan/ton, 2.3 million yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides is 313,500 yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide has dropped from 10,000 yuan/ton to 192,000 yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys is down from 10,000 yuan per ton to 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has been slightly lower, but the price of light rare earth market has maintained an upward trend. The domestic rare earth market trading market is general, dysprosium metals have declined. Recently, the inquiry list for Pr and Nd oxide has increased, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, domestic PTA spot market prices fell slightly on August 21, down 0.33% from the previous trading day and 39.17% from the same period last year. Futures market to the closing main futures (2001) closed at 5,158 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.45%. The import market is stable for the time being. The PTA US dollar offer refers to US$700/ton, the offer is US$660/ton, and the supplier of one-day tour reports to US$700-740/ton. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is still acceptable. Traders and factories are the main buyers.

Recent PTA start-up load has been rising to around 91%, supply side of a number of devices to restart the bad market. Ningbo Yisheng 650,000 tons PTA plant is scheduled to restart on the evening of 21; Huabin Petrochemical 1.4 million tons PTA plant is scheduled to be fully loaded in the near future; Liwan Polyester 700,000 tons PTA plant is scheduled to restart near August 23.

Raw material market kept a narrow rise. The closing price of WTI main futures for international crude oil on August 20 was $56.34 per barrel, which was $0.13 per ton higher than the previous trading day. The closing price of BRENT main futures was $60.03 per barrel, which was $0.29 per ton higher than the previous trading day. Domestic PX price trend is stable, maintained near 7000 yuan/ton. The Asian PX market closed at $773 per ton for FOB Korea and $793 per ton for CFR China, up $1 per ton from the previous trading day.

Terminal demand improved slightly and polyester began to rebound and inventory fell. The downstream polyester start-up load restored to about 88%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 74%. In terms of inventory, polyester FDY inventory decreased by 3 days, polyester DTY by 2.5 days and polyester POY by 2 days. In terms of price, most of the mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reported stable prices, with an increase of 50 yuan per ton. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7650-8000 yuan/ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 7950-8200 yuan/ton and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8900-9200 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PTA supply side has recently restarted a number of devices, suppressing prices, and insufficient cost-side support. However, downstream demand has gradually improved, production and sales have improved, and PTA is expected to decline in limited space. The future market still needs to pay attention to the planned overhaul of 2.2 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical plant and the change of terminal demand.

On August 20, the rare earth index was 372 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 62.80% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.27% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 0.5 million yuan per ton to 391.5 million yuan per ton, dysprosium metal by 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal by 695 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton to 3.075 million yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide dropped by 10,000 yuan/ton to 1.93 million yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 3.825 million yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton to 3.950 million yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 391,500 yuan/ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys decreased by 10,000 yuan/ton to 192,000 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earths has been slightly lower, but the price of light rare earths has risen. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Dysprosium metals have declined. Recently, the market of Pd and Nd series products has risen. The supply in the market is normal. The price of light rare earths has recovered slightly in the near future. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection will not be reduced in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market trading situation is general, and the price of the rare earth market is expected to remain mainly volatile.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PP market trend was basically stable in the third week of August, with a narrow range of shocks adjusted. As of August 19, the mainstream offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was around 8666.67 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the beginning of the week.

II. Cause Analysis

Upstream: In the upstream, international crude oil rose sharply last week and then fell sharply. Although there was a slight recovery in the later period, market expectations were not satisfactory, which had a negative impact on propylene. Affected by typhoon, loading of some upstream and downstream enterprises in Shandong Province was blocked last week and the turnover was sluggish. Now most of them have returned to normal and the volume of propylene shipments has increased. Recent sharp fall in propylene prices has made downstream factories more cautious in purchasing, mainly in need, and the pressure of refineries’shipments continues to rise, which has warmed up the mood of profit and drainage. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province has been stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th, falling 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th, rising again on the 10th and rising 200 yuan/ton on the 14th. About RMB / ton, stabilized on the 15th, and began to decline sharply on the 17th. About 300 RMB / ton were traded in three days. At present, the market turnover is around 7400 – 7650 RMB / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7400 RMB / ton.

Products: In the third week of August, the overall price trend of PP market remained stable and narrow adjustment. This week, the start-up rate of polypropylene enterprises in China was 79.48, with a decrease of 9.83% in circumference. Next week, Qingdao Dalian Refinery, Shenhua Yulin, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical Dimerization, Zhongan Union and Yangtze Petrochemical Company plan to start, while Ningbo Fude plans to stop. It is expected that the start-up rate of enterprises will rise somewhat. Supported by petrochemical overhaul and certain cost aspects, the merchants are not willing to let the profit slip, but the difficulty of shipment remains unchanged and the transaction negotiation is concluded. Two barrels of oil PP stocks, TRADERS’stocks and social stocks all declined. The demand of end-users is flat, the enthusiasm of reserve is low, and the driving force of upward price is insufficient. Zhenhai Refinery (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8800 yuan/ton. Jiujiang Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical (CNPC East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton. Daqing Petrochemical (CNPC Northeast) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8750 yuan/ton. Dalian Organic PP (CNOOC Northeast) ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

PP business analysts believe that this week, domestic PP prices stabilized in a narrow range of adjustments, the upstream propylene weakness fell, the cost of PP support weakened. The start-up rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises has declined, and there are many parking and maintenance devices. Dealers follow the market, downstream demand continues to weaken, trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that PP trend will probably continue to consolidate and operate in the near future.