Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price trend of cryolite decreased slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the market average price stabilized at about 6333.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the market average price stabilized at about 6316.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline was 0.26%, which was 1.81% lower than the same period last year. The Cryolite Commodity Index on September 29 was 76.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.20% from the cyclical peak of 101.21 points (2011-10-31), and up 15.63% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the price trend of cryolite has been slightly lowered, and there is no obvious price adjustment by manufacturers. Up to 27 days, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7200 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Civilian Benefit Industrial Cryolite quoted 6950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite price 7000 yuan/ton, smooth shipment, business is still possible.

Industry chain: This week, the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 2877.78 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average price of domestic market was about 2866.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.39%, an increase of 7.0% over the previous year. The price trend of fluorite in the upstream continued to decline, mainly because of the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In recent years, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has declined. At the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the market of fluorite on-site is poor. In addition, the start-up rate of fluorite devices on-site remains high. However, the downstream demand situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite on-site is adequate, and the price of fluorite on-site has declined. Sliding trend. For downstream electrolytic aluminium, this week’s aluminium price trend continued to decline, the price at the beginning of the week remained around 14326.67 yuan/ton, the weekend was about 14046.67 yuan/ton, the price fell by 1.95% in the week.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 38 th week (9.23-9.27) of 2019, there were 19 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities increased, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were nitric acid (27.59%), ammonium nitrate (4.96%) and DMF (4.93%). There are 23 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 3.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-13.64%), dichloromethane (-8.20%) and R22 (-5.49%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.19%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products from business associations believe that the current multi-dimensional and stable quotations from cryolite manufacturers are the main ones. The equipment is running normally, the stock is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. The market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline in September, ending at 10,050 yuan/ton, down 6.34% from 10,730 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16.34% from the same period last year.

Products: In September, the overall trend of hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, the market situation of manufacturers in the field remained unchanged, the starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remained at a low level, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid was limited, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintained a high starting rate, the domestic spot supply was sufficient, and some manufacturers continued to reduce their ex-factory prices. By the end of the month, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers in the southern region were still at a low level. The mainstream is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan / ton. Recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to decline. Recent downstream refrigerant industry demand is poor. Hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’supply of goods is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the week, the mainstream of HF in the domestic area is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is 9500-10000 yuan / ton in the region. In the area of hydrofluoric acid, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is down by 9000-10000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: In September, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid declined. At the end of the month, the price of fluorite was 2866.67 yuan/ton. Recently, the fluorite plant started to work normally. On the whole, the fluorite supply was sufficient. However, the fluorite market was greatly affected by environmental protection. The fluorite supply in the field was normal. The price of fluorite in some factories fell back, and the price of fluorite market declined slightly.  Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is poor, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been cushioned. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Industry: In September, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid industry started to operate normally, the hydrofluoric acid field product spot supply was sufficient, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid declined.

Recently, the hydrofluoric acid plant started to operate normally, the supply of goods in the field is normal, the price of raw material fluorite market is low, which has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the demand of refrigeration industry downstream is low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid only declines but does not increase. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain low in October and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be about 9,700 yuan/ton.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic cobalt price rose first and then stabilized in September, and then the market cobalt price tended to stabilize. As of September 29, the price of cobalt was 302666.66 yuan/ton, up 13.64% from the average price of 266333.34 yuan/ton on September 1, and down 0.55% from the price of cobalt on September 24. Recently, the international cobalt price has remained stable, while the domestic cobalt price has weakened.

II. Market Analysis

1. International Cobalt Price Rise Slows down

MB cobalt price stabilization

As can be seen from the table, MB cobalt price rose in September, but the increase was relatively small, and the cobalt price tended to stabilize at the end of September. The international cobalt price is stable, while the domestic cobalt price has weakened. As of September 27, MB standard grade cobalt quoted 17.6-18.1 US dollars per pound, alloy grade cobalt quoted 18-18.5 US dollars per pound; international cobalt price has stabilized, domestic cobalt price has weakened, and overall domestic cobalt market has tended to stabilize.

Cobalt Price Rising in LME Market

As can be seen from the chart, the price of cobalt in LME market has gradually stabilized after the surge of cobalt price in September. The stability of international cobalt price has weakened the domestic cobalt price advantage, and the domestic cobalt market remains stable.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year-on-year in August.

According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, in August 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 87,000 vehicles and 85,000 vehicles respectively, down 12.1% and 15.8% respectively from the same period last year. From January to August, 799,000 new energy vehicles and 793,000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold, up 31.6% and 32.0% respectively from the same period last year. In August, the production and sales of new energy automobiles fell sharply year on year, and the new energy automobile market showed a slump. Although the sluggish performance of the new energy automobile market is considered to be a temporary phenomenon and the future new energy automobile market is still expected, the decline in the production and sales of new energy automobiles has seriously affected the demand of the cobalt market, and the demand of the cobalt market is expected to decline sharply.  Overall, the new energy automobile industry has slipped under the support of the cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales continue to decline

According to the data of CITIC, in August 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308.775 million units, down 5.3% from the same period last year; in January-August 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 251 million units, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Domestic mobile phone sales fell sharply, and demand for cobalt declined significantly. Although the sales of 5G mobile phones have made little progress, in August the sales of 5G mobile phones were only 219,000, and the sales of 5G mobile phones were only 291,000. The rapid development of 5G mobile phones has not yet come. It is anticipated that the trend of 5G switching will indeed come in 2020. The demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market in 2019 is not obvious.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, believes that the steady rise of international cobalt price in September has a certain promoting effect on domestic cobalt price, and that domestic cobalt price has a certain driving force, but with the stabilization of international cobalt price, the driving force of cobalt market is weakening; in terms of demand, the sharp decline in sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones has brought about demand for cobalt market. A little haze, cobalt market demand is weak, cobalt prices are weak. In the future market, cobalt supply is expected to decline in the global cobalt market, cobalt mining enterprise cost constraints, the era of low-cost cobalt is far away, cobalt prices may be weakened; cobalt market demand performance is not good in the near future, but cobalt market demand is still bullish in the future, German new energy automobile sales rose substantially, and the global development of new energy automobile market is promoted. The market of new energy automobiles is bound to grow again and substantially after sales. 5G mobile phones are performing normally at this stage. However, with the 5G infrastructure in place, there will be a wave of change in 2020, and the long-term demand for cobalt will rise. Generally speaking, the cobalt market has limited upward momentum and insufficient downward pressure. The probability of cobalt market rising and falling sharply in the near future is relatively small. Cobalt price is mainly stable by shocks. In the long run, cobalt market still has upward momentum, cobalt price has some room to rise, and cobalt price may rise slowly in the long run.

Price Trend

Aniline prices continued to rise this week, with Shandong currently trading at 7,600 yuan/ton and Nanjing at 7,800 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from last Friday, according to a large list of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, the price of raw material pure benzene is 5600-5900 yuan/ton, down from last week. This week, the tender price of aniline raw material is about 200 yuan/ton lower than before. Last week, the Saudi Arabian incident led to a surge in crude oil and pure benzene, benefiting the domestic market and pure benzene. The impact of this week’s events has subsided. Although the inventory of Zhouzhuangdong Port declined slightly, some factories were parked near the lower reaches of the Eleventh century, and environmental protection requirements caused certain restrictions on transportation. The demand for pure benzene was reduced, and the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province began to decline.

Products: Last week, due to the unstable parking of Shanxi Tianji plant, reduced shipments, downstream enterprises turned to Shandong and other places to purchase, aniline inventory declined, this week aniline enterprise supply is still on the tight side. In addition, although the tender price of raw material pure benzene fell this week, the tender price of nitric acid increased by a large margin, and the cost support was strong, which was good to support the price rise of aniline.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Likong: The recent blue sky defense battle has a strong influence, transportation constraints hinder the good market of pure benzene. Advantages: Port stocks in East China are declining and imports of pure benzene are on the low side.

Near the Oct 1st

, downstream enterprises have reduced their demand for aniline due to environmental protection.

It is expected that in the near future, aniline will mainly increase in consumption and run steadily.

On September 26, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 105.18% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level. The average domestic fluorite price was 2877.79 yuan/ton as of the 26th day. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went on the spot. The goods are in poor condition and the fluorite market price is stable for the time being. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is sufficient, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in weak market prices. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained low.

The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fluorite market has been slightly lower. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,100 yuan/ton as of 26 days. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a is declining. At present, the market of R134a has entered the off-season. The downstream demand is relatively weak. The start-up rate of many R134a manufacturers remains low. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market is at a low level.

Generally speaking, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is abundant, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may maintain a low trend.