Under cost leadership, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions this week (February 10-14) was 7326 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX has strengthened the cost support for polyester staple fibers. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.

The overall trend of the domestic PTA market this week is weak, with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week. In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.

In addition, the increase in supply has led to a shortage of drive for polyester staple fibers. This week, there were many restarts of polyester staple fiber equipment, and the operating load rate gradually increased to 70%. In terms of demand, the downstream spinning industry has shown an upward trend in production, with the polyester yarn industry experiencing a slow increase in production to 50%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday. Currently, the operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is over 52%, but there are few new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventory before the holiday and are digesting the previous raw material inventory. In the short term, the purchasing willingness is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts from the business community believe that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, with the return of workers to their posts, factories in the terminal textile industry are more willing to make up the stock in the downstream, and the demand for polyester staple fiber is improved. But in the crude oil market, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation, and prices may run weakly. Moreover, the accumulated inventory pressure of PTA in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory facilities has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices, weakening the cost support of polyester staple fibers. Therefore, in the short term, there is still downward pressure on the price of polyester staple fibers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market has improved this week, with the main trend being upward. On February 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On February 13th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%.

Lido supports sustained high levels of domestic adipic acid market

Starting from February 10th, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid has remained strong, and demand in the terminal industry has recovered. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers have risen, and the market has improved. The average market price has risen to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in late February, with stable demand in the terminal industry and limited upward potential in the raw material market, the adipic acid market is likely to experience a weak decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 12th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4260 yuan/ton. After the holiday, DMF prices have remained stable, with little fluctuation compared to the same period last week.

2、 Market analysis

The stable operation of DMF prices is the main focus. Currently, there is not much downstream demand for DMF, with rigid procurement as the main focus and on-demand replenishment as the main focus. The stable operation of market prices is the main focus. The reference price for DMF spot delivery in Shandong and surrounding areas is 4250-4300 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas it is 4500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a narrow range of weak operations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the Spring Festival, the overall hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded with a slight increase. At the beginning of February, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 700 yuan/ton. On February 11th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 686 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.49%.

Supply tightens, hydrogen peroxide market rebounds after holiday

During the Spring Festival, most hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in hydrogen peroxide supply. After the holiday, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have restarted one after another, but the supply of hydrogen peroxide is still tight. The terminal stocking market is driving, and the hydrogen peroxide market is stable with a slight increase, overall relatively stable. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market is 600-780 yuan/ton, and the market fluctuation is relatively small.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid to late February, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will gradually resume operations, leading to an increase in market supply and a weak upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market.

After a narrow rise in the domestic ABS market in early February, the prices of most grades of spot goods remained flat. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11912.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry had limited changes, with a load of about 73% roughly unchanged from the pre holiday level. The average weekly production within the month is close to 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has rebounded to over 170000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. Although the pre sales of petrochemical plants were good before the holiday, recent shipments have been hindered, and production companies have given up on their early month gains. Overall, the recent supply side has provided average support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: In February, the three upstream materials of ABS showed mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The domestic acrylonitrile market maintains an upward trend. The low load situation in the industry continues, and the overall inventory position is low. The supply return process is slow, and prices are running steadily. However, downstream purchasing power has weakened after the holiday, and the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

The butadiene market remains strong at a high level. Although the spot market has followed the tight pattern before the holiday, with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, it has affected the downstream high-level receiving ability. In addition, there are expectations of relaxation in the future market on the supply side, leading to a stalemate and confrontation in the market. It is expected that butadiene may continue to be sorted out.

Styrene first rose and then fell in early February. The styrene plant within ten days will continue to operate at the pre holiday level, while there will be a slight weakening of supply side support due to the accumulation of cargo at the port before the holiday. Combined with the impact of the decline in crude oil prices, the price of styrene has fallen back.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been fully released in January, and downstream purchasing power has weakened during and after the Spring Festival. The process of resuming work in terminal factories during holidays is slow, and the overall load level is not high. In addition, some terminal enterprises were stimulated by the increase in ABS cost value in the early stage and engaged in purchasing and replenishment operations, so there is still inventory that needs to be digested. Overall, the demand side has a slower pace in providing market support.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market remained stagnant after a surge in February. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant remains basically unchanged, inventory has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased. Insufficient expansion on the demand side, regression still requires a process. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may continue to consolidate in the short term, with unemployed individuals returning to the market.