This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7150 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 3.44% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on March 7th, which was 6912.50 yuan/ton. The operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The operating load of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, the maintenance of adjacent benzene units is advanced, the supply of adjacent benzene is reduced, the support for the rise of adjacent benzene is increased, the price of adjacent benzene is strong and temporarily stable, the cost of raw materials is strong and temporarily stable, the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is weakened, and the support for the rise is increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

The maintenance plan for the ortho benzene unit of Yangzi Petrochemical has been advanced, resulting in a reduction in ortho benzene supply and a continuous opening of the export window. Domestic ortho xylene spot supply has decreased, leading to a decrease in the load of ortho phthalic anhydride enterprises and a tightening of ortho phthalic anhydride supply.

This week, the cost of raw materials such as benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on March 7th at 7300 yuan/ton. The early maintenance of neighboring benzene manufacturers has reduced the supply of neighboring benzene, increased the price of neighboring benzene, and stabilized the cost of neighboring phthalic anhydride; The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing strongly, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing strongly, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists.

Demand side: DOP market trend first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the DOP price was 8101.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.46% compared to the DOP price of 8138.75 yuan/ton on March 7th; Compared to March 11th, the DOP price of 8251.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 1.82%. The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has increased, plasticizer production has recovered, demand for phthalic anhydride has increased, phthalic anhydride inventory has decreased, and the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of costs, the expected start of production for phthalic anhydride has decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the support for the rise in o-xylene prices has increased, the price of industrial naphthalene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, with increased support for the rise in phthalic anhydride costs; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has increased, and the support for the increase in demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, as costs rise and demand recovers, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has increased this week. The average price of titanium dioxide at the beginning of the week was 15200 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide at the end of the week was 15300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market price has been rising. The upstream raw material sulfuric acid price has risen, and titanium concentrate is consolidating at a high level, putting significant pressure on factory costs. The market quotation for titanium dioxide is approaching high-end prices, and many companies have the intention to increase prices. However, downstream demand is generally moderate, with rigid demand being the main factor. The high cost and weak demand are playing against each other, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for new order prices. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly around 14000-16000 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 13200-13400 yuan/ton; The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate has slightly increased this week. At present, downstream titanium dioxide factories have stable production, and enterprises mainly consume inventory first. Inquiries are relatively average, and the market is mostly wait-and-see. As of now, the transaction price of 46,10 titanium ore for small and medium-sized manufacturers is between 2080-2150 yuan/ton, the price of 47,20 titanium ore is between 2200-2280 yuan/ton, and the price of 38 titanium ore excluding tax is between 1480-1500 yuan/ton. With Panzhihua Iron and Steel gradually outsourcing raw ore this month, there will be signs of loosening in high prices, and it is expected that some prices may weaken slightly in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have risen this week, with a slight increase in raw material titanium concentrate prices and a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices. Enterprises with high cost pressure tend to have an upward trend, but downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stagnant in the short term, with prices remaining firm and actual transaction prices being negotiated on a case by case basis.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average sales price of PET is 6117 yuan/ton. The drag of raw material prices and the low downstream purchasing willingness have led to a weak downward trend in prices this week.

In terms of cost: The international crude oil market is affected by geopolitical easing, OPEC+production increases, US tariff policies that suppress demand, coupled with Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports. International oil prices have fallen below the key support level of $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. Although PTA processing fees have briefly rebounded to a reasonable range of 325 yuan/ton due to concentrated maintenance, the expected increase in new production capacity and import recovery have suppressed long-term profit margins; The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port has risen to a high of 584400 tons, and the loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to change.

In terms of supply and demand: The polyester bottle chip industry is at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add 2.15 million tons of new production capacity by 2025. Coupled with the current high inventory level during the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. Despite weak demand, the operating rates of major production enterprises remain high, leading to a continuous increase in supply and exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. The textile and clothing industry has entered the traditional peak season of “golden three and silver four”, but the actual order release is limited. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises has dropped to 8.26 days, while the finished product inventory has increased to 23.64 days, indicating cautious terminal replenishment. The release of new production capacity and high inventory have suppressed price rebound, but there is no significant improvement signal on the demand side.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that crude oil and raw material prices lack upward driving force, and the release of new production capacity and high inventory suppress price rebound. There is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side, and the price of polyester bottle chips may continue to fluctuate weakly. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment and demand situation, as well as the cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of styrene fell on the 13th. Overall, the recent decline in international oil prices, downstream production restrictions and price protection measures for pure benzene, poor terminal demand, coupled with the accumulation of inventory in major ports in East China and weak market sentiment, have accelerated the decline and dragged down the price of styrene. There is little change in the supply side of styrene, and downstream 3S remains stable. Downstream enters the market on dips, and it is expected to consolidate and operate after a short-term market downturn.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been continuously declining recently. As of March 11th, the domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 76000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55% from 7880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 31.78% from 111400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; Domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 27.83% from 102400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

Supply side: Increased domestic production coupled with rising imports

Domestically speaking, Ningde Times’ Jiangxi lithium mica mine resumed production in February, leading to a 25% increase in domestic production volume compared to the previous month in March.

In terms of imports, although Chile sent 12000 tons of lithium carbonate to China in February, there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month. But in addition to lithium carbonate, Chile sent 10300 tons of lithium sulfate to China in February, an increase of 391% compared to the previous month. In addition, Ganfeng Lithium’s 20000 ton lithium chloride production capacity in the first phase of the Mariana Lithium Salt Lake project in Argentina was officially put into operation in February, which will also drive China’s lithium carbonate imports.

Demand side: ternary materials weaken, lithium iron phosphate may become a major trend

From the perspective of material factories, due to the increasing concentration of the industry, top material factories are approaching full production or even seeking outsourcing processing, while small material factories have significantly reduced orders and experienced production stoppages.

From the perspective of lithium iron phosphate, the production capacity of power batteries reached 96GWh in March, an increase of 18% compared to the previous month. Among them, lithium iron phosphate power batteries performed particularly well, with a production capacity of 65GWh, an increase of 22% compared to the previous month, accounting for about 69%.

The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that, under the premise that the large pattern of lithium carbonate surplus has not been reversed, the weak supply and demand will further suppress prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to weaken in the short term, and specific market information and changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.