1、 Price data

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refiners fell, with the average price of 2162.00 yuan / ton in Shandong market on June 27, which was 2215.33 yuan / ton, down 2.41% compared with that in June 21. The petroleum coke commodity index was 168.16 on June 27, which was flat with yesterday, down 8.72% from the peak of 184.23 (2021-05-25) in the cycle, up 151.40% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the supply of refined coke increased, refineries actively shipped for export, and the demand side was generally enthusiastic about purchasing. Some refineries were under pressure and prices fell.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen, the international economy has gradually recovered, the vaccination in the United States is growing rapidly, the demand for crude oil in the United States is in a peak season, and the expectation of recovery of demand in Europe and the United States has boosted the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC + alliance continues to adhere to the measures of gradually resuming supply from June to July, Offsetting the risk of increased supply that could result from consensus reached in the US Iraq nuclear agreement to support oil prices.

Downstream: by the electrolytic aluminum enterprises just need to support, carbon products overall good delivery; The price of calcined coke has declined; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream of the week rose, and as of June 27, the price was 18790.00 yuan / ton; At present, the inventory of silicon plant is low, the price of silicon metal market is stable and rising, and downstream demand is still acceptable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, 13 commodities in the energy sector rose month on month in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 25th week of 2021 (6.21-6.25), of which more than 5% of the commodities increased by 1, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were coking coal (6.35%), power coal (3.47%), coke (2.77%). There are three commodities falling on the same month, the first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.68%), petroleum coke (-2.41%), MTBE (-0.84%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.12 per cent.

The analysts of petroleum coke of business society believe that: the initial inspection and repair plant has started successively, the supply of local refining coke has increased, and the refineries are actively shipping and selling for export, but the demand side procurement enthusiasm is limited. It is comprehensively predicted that the oil coke will be sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of caustic soda is relatively stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market is 517.5 yuan / ton, which is 0.49% higher than that of the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on June 24 was 74.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.01% from 206.87 (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.36% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of caustic soda was adjusted. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been stable for the time being. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 490-560 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is slightly better than before. However, because the supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the caustic soda manufacturers now adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent narrow consolidation operation of caustic soda will be the main trend. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 480-650 yuan / ton, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated in the future.

Downstream: due to the demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda inventory, caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. However, due to the sufficient supply of caustic soda, the price of caustic soda at this stage is multi-dimensional.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 24 th week of 2021 (6.14-6.18), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 1 commodity, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (6.44%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.68%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.15%.

Business community analysts believe that in the near future, Shandong has been mainly operating in a narrow range, and the demand for downstream alumina is acceptable. But now the supply of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and manufacturers in other regions adjust their quotations according to their own conditions. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

O-benzene market strong and stable

According to the data monitoring of business association, the settlement price of o-benzene in June was 6200 yuan / ton, which was higher than that in May. In June, the market of o-benzene was generally stable. As of June 25, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene of 6200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; Compared with the price of 5 900 yuan / ton on May 1, the price of o-benzene increased. In June, the market of o-benzene was consolidated, and the market was strong and temporarily stable compared with May.

The price of raw materials fluctuates and stabilizes

According to the data detection of business society, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell in May, and fell first and then rose in June. As of June 25, the price of mixed xylene was 5880 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that in early June; The price of mixed xylene increased slightly compared with that in early May. Mixed xylene market tends to be stable, o-benzene cost is temporarily stable, o-benzene rising power still exists.

The lower reaches of the market fell

According to the data from the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell in May. In June, the market of phthalic anhydride continued its decline in May, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. As of June 25, the price of phthalic anhydride fell by 4% compared with that at the beginning of May. The downstream market of o-benzene fell, the demand for o-benzene weakened, the rigid demand for o-benzene was insufficient, the rising power of o-benzene weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that in June, the price of mixed xylene first fell and then rose, the cost of o-xylene stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, the downstream market fluctuated and fell, and the demand for o-xylene was insufficient. In general, the o-xylene Market fluctuated and weakened in June, and the settlement price of o-xylene rose in June, but the pressure of o-xylene decline was greater, and the settlement price was falsely high. In the future, the settlement price of o-benzene is falsely high, and the market of o-benzene is expected to fall.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, boric acid prices continued to rise this week. On June 18, boric acid prices were 4600-5250 yuan / ton (average price 4820 yuan / ton), and on June 24, boric acid prices were 4850-5300 yuan / ton (average price 4980 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 160 yuan / ton or 3.23% compared with last week.

Boric acid prices continued to rise after finishing slightly this week. At present, the price of upstream basic raw materials is rising, the cost is under pressure, and the pressure of production enterprises is greater. Some enterprises carry out limited order, a single discussion. The shortage of imported boric acid is also the reason for the price rise of domestic boric acid. Some domestic factories have begun to list.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the boric acid prices of some enterprises in the near future (for reference only, the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated)

Boric acid analysts of business news agency believe that in the recent period of boric acid price fluctuation, due to various reasons such as raw material prices, production orders of enterprises, and tight import sources, it is expected that the boric acid market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It is suggested that buyers just need to purchase, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

Recently, the price of domestic refined oil has increased significantly. The price of domestic 92 gasoline reached 7932.6 yuan / ton, up 4.62% in June. The price of domestic 0 diesel oil was 6367 yuan / ton, up 4.15%. It mainly promoted the increase of consumer demand. In addition, the price of upstream crude oil has been greatly boosted. With the implementation of consumption tax on light circulation, mixed aromatics and other oil blending raw materials, multiple benefits have been superimposed, Domestic oil product prices have risen.

In June, the price of gasoline and diesel still went up in Shandong Province, which was supported by the market. However, the overall price level is on the high side, and the acceptance of the middle and lower reaches is not high. In June, with the implementation of consumption tax on light circulation, mixed aromatics and other oil blending raw materials, the refined oil market was supported by certain advantages, and the price of diesel oil rose by a large margin. However, with the completion of summer harvest in the north, the rainy season in the south is coming. At present, the domestic weather is mainly hot and rainy, and the start-up of industrial and mining industries abroad is limited, so the diesel oil continued to rise weakly. The price trend of crude oil market has risen sharply. In addition to the good trading situation in the market, the price trend of refined oil has risen.

Crude oil: in June, the price of crude oil rose sharply. After the acceleration of vaccination in many countries, the epidemic situation in India also showed an obvious inflection point. With the rapid recovery of crude oil demand, the price of crude oil showed a strong upward trend, once rising to the highest level in 32 months. As of Tuesday, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was at US $72.85/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $74.81/barrel. The rising price of crude oil market has formed a certain cost support for the domestic oil product market, and the domestic cost has a rising trend.

The supply and demand side of refined oil is good: in the second quarter, some maintenance units of atmospheric and vacuum distillation were restarted, the operating rate of refineries rose, the supply side increased from where it was, but the demand also increased accordingly. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is appropriate, the travel radius of the public has increased, and there is a certain demand for goods preparation and storage in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the summer harvest in northern China has started one after another, the agricultural oil consumption may increase gradually, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continues to pick up, and the terminal demand for diesel oil has strong support. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices continued to rise.

Recently, the average start-up load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in domestic main refineries is about 78%. In June, the main refineries resumed work, the number of refineries increased, and the supply side increased.

Chen Ling, an oil products analyst at the business club, believes that the recent international crude oil price is favorable. June is in the traditional peak oil consumption season in the United States. In addition, the epidemic situation has been alleviated to some extent, and there is a certain cost support for international crude oil. However, the domestic product oil price is at a high stage, and downstream users have a certain resistance to high prices, so there is a great pressure to continue to rise sharply, There is little room for price increase in the later stage.