According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been fluctuating downward since July. On July 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% from the beginning of the month. Under the weakening of both costs and demand, the PTA price trend is weak.

Looking at the future, based on its own supply situation, Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million ton PTA plant started heating up on July 11th, with a current load of 70%. Pengwei Petrochemical’s annual production of 900000 tons of PTA plant was temporarily shut down and is scheduled to restart on July 20th. The current operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 84%, and some units will still restart in the later stage. However, the PTA maintenance plan is relatively few, and the liquidity may be sufficient after the supply returns, resulting in significant pressure on the accumulated inventory.

The international crude oil market has stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $82.85 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.08 per barrel. In the short term, the game between crude oil supply and demand continues to play a role. Due to the impact of geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control, the supply side has certain support, and oil prices may maintain a range oscillation pattern.

In the PX market, domestic PX load has returned to a high level, overseas facilities have been restarted one after another, and Asian PX production has returned to its highest level since the beginning of this year. It is expected that there may be further upward momentum in the future. But the recovery of downstream PTA supply is lower than expected, and PX prices will continue to be under pressure.

Downstream mainstream polyester factories have gradually begun to implement production cuts, and the industry’s operating capacity has dropped below 83%, further boosting the determination to maintain fixed prices. The low season of terminal demand, coupled with weak orders and high temperatures, has led to a continued decline in the operating rate of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to around 65%. Downstream demand for PTA is still weak due to low intentions to replenish inventory.

Business analysts believe that further attention needs to be paid to the trend of crude oil, whether PTA has unplanned maintenance, and the implementation of downstream polyester production cuts.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 17th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4000 yuan/ton. From early July 1st to 17th, the overall DMF price fell by 5.83%, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF price is at its lowest level in three years. In July, we entered the traditional off-season, with slow shipments from manufacturers, sustained high inventory levels, increased inventory pressure, low overall market operating rates, and weak digestion of the DMF market. We are observing the operation.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost, the main upstream product of DMF, liquid ammonia, showed a significant decline in early July. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the trading atmosphere did not improve. The overall market price continued to consolidate weakly, with a small amount of shipments being the main focus. The downstream market demand was sluggish, and the mentality of first-time buyers was pessimistic and cautious. Ammonia companies adjusted prices according to their own situation. Currently, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the operating rate is running steadily. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.

In terms of demand, downstream agricultural demand is in the traditional off-season, with weak demand and a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. Terminal demand continues to be weak, making it difficult for enterprises to stock up. The overall market demand is limited, and stagnant operation is the main trend. Manufacturers have lowered prices and shipped goods to alleviate the pressure of high inventory. Currently, the industry’s profitability is not optimistic, and some enterprises have stopped production and production to cope with the current market situation.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market has been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there is still a risk of further price decline. The mentality of industry players is somewhat average, mainly focusing on cautious procurement for essential needs. It is expected that DMF prices will remain around 4000 yuan/ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6440 yuan/ton, which is 0.31% lower than the reference average price of 6460 yuan/ton on July 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6666 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6666 yuan/ton on July 8th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market has been in a state of price stagnation and consolidation. As of July 16th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the yellow phosphorus market has been weakly consolidating and operating. The increase in enterprise operating rate and market supply. Downstream price cutting procurement is the main focus, and the focus of transactions is decreasing. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to remain weak.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The market price of phosphate ore has been running steadily this month. The inquiry atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is mild, with downstream urgent procurement being the main focus. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the supply of hot process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, while some wet process phosphoric acid manufacturers have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. However, there is still support on the supply side. At present, the market demand is average, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus, and many adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been steadily consolidating in recent days. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is weakening, and there is insufficient support on the cost side of hot acid, while there is still support on the supply and demand side of wet acid. Downstream and distributors operate cautiously, and terminal demand needs to be improved. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will experience a narrow consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 15th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2687 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as Monday’s price.

In early July, the formic acid market was mainly stable, with some enterprises adjusting their prices. The mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 2800-3200 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of methanol, the main raw material, has fluctuated and risen narrowly. Some units are expected to undergo maintenance, and the low inventory of production enterprises has supported the improvement of the mainland market.

The formic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current market supply and demand performance is deadlocked, with production and sales balanced, and there are no favorable factors in the short term. It is expected that the formic acid market will fluctuate, and specific changes in supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on July 12th was 956 yuan/ton, which is 0.17% higher than the average price of 955 yuan/ton on July 8th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price first rose and then fell, with narrow fluctuations being the main trend. This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises has remained stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has increased. At present, the market supply is sufficient, and downstream inquiries have a good enthusiasm. Manufacturers prioritize price hikes, while distributors maintain a cautious attitude and buy at low prices. As of July 12th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 920 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 930-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been operating steadily in recent days. At present, although there has been an increase in on-site inquiries, there is still a high inventory of ammonium sulfate in the market, and the industry is adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate prices will remain stagnant and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation.