Cobalt prices fell sharply in July
On July 22nd, the cobalt price was 355900 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell 7.27% compared to the cobalt price of 383800 yuan/ton on July 10th. Starting from mid July, cobalt prices have experienced a significant decline. As the downward trend of cobalt prices slows down, there is obvious pressure on the price side. The domestic cobalt market as a whole presents a pattern of “low-level stalemate and weak stable operation”, but the bottom cost support is gradually strengthening.
Supply side: Cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo are concentrated at the port
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in China increased significantly in June 2026. The import volume of intermediate products for cobalt wet smelting was 10960.945 tons, an increase of 324.12% compared to the previous month; The import volume of unprocessed cobalt was 1120.108 tons, an increase of 66.43% month on month and 104.64% year-on-year; The import volume of cobalt trioxide is 2.123 tons. In June, cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo arrived at the port one after another, and the import volume of cobalt increased significantly. From July to August, cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to be concentrated at the port, increasing the supply of cobalt raw materials and increasing the pressure of cobalt price decline.
In 2025, the supply of recycled cobalt in China will be about 23000 metal tons. By 2026, the supply of recycled cobalt in the first half of the year has reached 21000 metal tons, and it is expected to reach 45000 to 50000 metal tons for the whole year, which can meet 35% of China’s cobalt demand. The significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in China increased significantly in June, and cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo gradually arrived at the port. It is expected that cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo will be concentrated at the port in July and August; In addition, the significant increase in cobalt recycling has alleviated the shortage of supply in the cobalt market, resulting in a significant increase in supply and a sharp decline in cobalt prices. With the decline in cobalt prices and the arrival of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo, downstream companies in the domestic cobalt market may experience a concentrated replenishment of inventory, leading to a brief surge in demand in the cobalt market and stimulating an increase in cobalt prices. Overall, cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo are concentrated in ports, resulting in a temporary oversupply in the cobalt market. However, as downstream companies replenish their inventory and demand in the cobalt market rebounds, cobalt prices may stop falling and rebound.

Market trend
From July 15th to 20th, the domestic PA66 market price remained stable at 18200 yuan/ton. On July 21st, spot prices slightly rose, and the overall trend showed a bottom stabilization and a slight upward trend in the late trading session. From the perspective of the Business Social Average indicator, on July 15th, there was a signal that the 10 day moving average had crossed the 20 day moving average, and the technical trend officially turned from the previous continuous downward trend; The annual price is in the mid to low range of the year, with a significant drop of 6900 yuan from the high point of 25100 yuan/ton this year, and the bottom support is gradually emerging.
influencing factors
Cost side: The repair pace of the upstream adiponitrile supply side has slowed down, and domestic large factories have maintained a tight balance of raw materials during equipment maintenance. The arrival of adiponitrile from external sources is limited, and the raw material quotation has stopped falling and stabilized, stopping the previous downward trend of PA66 cost drag.
The supporting raw material caprolactam continued to increase during the week, and the settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec increased month on month in the third week of July. Chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone also fluctuated and strengthened, and the raw material cost of the entire nylon industry chain rose at the bottom, forming rigid cost support for PA66. The loss space of manufacturers narrowed, and the willingness to actively reduce prices and ship significantly weakened.
Domestic PA66 polymerization factories are operating at a low level, and some enterprises are operating at low loads due to sustained losses in the early stage. The increase in the circulation of spot goods in the industry is limited, and costs are stabilizing combined with supply contraction, resulting in a loss of sustained downward momentum in spot prices.
Supply side
The industry continues to operate at a low rate, and the pressure on factory inventory has significantly eased after several months of destocking. There are not many available sources of goods in the market; The low-level selling operations of traders in the early stage have basically ended, and the mentality of holding goods to support prices has increased, resulting in the gradual disappearance of low-priced sources of goods. Overlaying the moving average, there is a bullish crossover signal, and the market sentiment is gradually heating up. At the end of the trading session, spot prices showed a slight upward trend.
Demand side
Downstream modification and injection molding enterprises are in the pre stocking cycle of autumn and winter fabrics and auto parts. Compared with the off-season in June, the demand for essential purchases has rebounded, and low-end essential orders have been steadily released, providing a bottom line for spot transactions.
The overall recovery of domestic textile and injection molding terminals is weak, with limited increase in overseas orders. Downstream enterprises maintain a small batch replenishment mode according to demand, and there is insufficient willingness to stock up in large quantities. The demand side only moderately repairs, making it difficult to drive prices to soar significantly.
In the first half of the year, a large amount of low-priced imported cotton yarn continued to impact the domestic weaving industry, putting pressure on the profits of downstream nylon fabric processing factories. The acceptance of high priced PA66 raw materials was low, and the significant upward space was limited by terminal demand.
Future forecast

It is expected that the PA66 market will be prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the overall pattern of low-level oscillation and strong tendency will be maintained. The cost side raw material support is stable, and the industry’s low operating and low inventory pattern continues. Coupled with the establishment of a bullish signal on the technical moving average, the price has a bottom rebound foundation; However, the recovery of downstream demand at the terminal is limited, and the market lacks sustained driving force for a sharp rise. The upward trend is moderate, and the upper pressure level refers to the range of 18800-19200 yuan/ton. If the upstream adiponitrile and caprolactam continue to strengthen, coupled with the concentrated release of downstream stock, the price is expected to explore the upper edge of the range; If the terminal procurement continues to be sluggish, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range of 17600-18600 yuan/ton.

The price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly
As of July 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.07% compared to the price of 7733.33 yuan/ton on July 6th, and a significant increase of 10.40% compared to the price of 7850 yuan/ton on July 10th. In mid July, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East resurfaced, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which was transmitted downstream. Industrial naphthalene prices rose sharply, neighboring benzene prices rose sharply, cost support increased, and phthalic anhydride prices rose sharply.
Phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises
Geopolitical conflicts resurface: the situation in the Middle East is heating up again, Iran is once again closing the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have risen sharply, the cost transmission of the entire aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain from crude oil to xylene to ortho benzene has increased, Sinopec has raised the listing price of ortho xylene, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has risen, industrial naphthalene has risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials has risen; DOP、 The unsaturated resin market has rebounded, with downstream centralized replenishment and increased production to around 60%, supported by demand for phthalic anhydride; The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, greatly boosting market confidence, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen.
Rising cost of phthalic anhydride
After the intensification of the US Iran conflict, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, directly transmitted to the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain: as of July 20th, the listed price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the price of ortho benzene on July 10th, which was 7800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial naphthalene was 5400 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen sharply, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased; In addition, the rise in crude oil prices has increased expectations of a rise in raw material prices, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride has been strengthened.
Low level supply of phthalic anhydride
On the supply side, the production of phthalic anhydride enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate of the industry has risen to less than 60%. The overall low opening inventory has been consolidated, and the overall factory and port inventories are low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices.
Demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists
As of July 20th, the DOP quotation was 8717.50 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.30% compared to the DOP price of 7975.84 yuan/ton on July 6th. The off-season in the downstream plasticizer industry has ended, and production has slowly increased to 60%. Downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has strengthened, and the rise in downstream DOP product prices has provided some support for phthalic anhydride procurement prices.
Future forecast
Analysts believe that on the cost side, crude oil and ortho xylene have significantly increased, while the rise in raw materials has supported the significant increase in phthalic anhydride; Demand side: The traditional off-season downstream is coming to an end, and downstream manufacturers are slowly increasing their production. Overall, with the significant increase in costs and the rebound in demand, the phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term.

This week, polyethylene first rapidly rose, surged, and then slightly fell back. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7835 yuan/ton on July 13th and 8350 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 6.57%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10000 yuan/ton on July 13th and 10466 yuan/ton on July 17th, an increase of 4.67%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on July 13th was 10512 yuan/ton, and on July 17th it was 10762 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%.
International crude oil continues to strengthen, and petrochemical production costs have risen, providing solid bottom support for polyethylene. The strengthening of costs has led to a continuous increase in the ex factory price of petrochemicals, and traders have followed suit with shipments, directly driving up the rapid rise in prices at the beginning of the week.
Centralized maintenance of domestic petrochemical facilities, tightening of spot supply in the market, continuous destocking of port inventory, and tight spot circulation have boosted market bullish sentiment, prompting traders to actively raise prices.
The downstream film and wire drawing industry is in the traditional off-season of demand, and the continuous increase in raw material prices has increased the cost pressure on factories. The overall production is sluggish, with only a small amount of purchases for basic needs maintained, and high priced goods transactions are scarce. Lack of actual purchasing opportunities from end-users.
Short term polyethylene overall maintains a high and weak oscillation pattern, with limited upward gains.

1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4220 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market lacks favorable support, and the mentality of operators is bearish. Market prices are mainly under pressure, downstream purchases are cautious, and small orders for essential needs are the main focus. The cost support for raw material methanol is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, in mid July 2026, the domestic DMF market as a whole showed a low-level stalemate and weak consolidation trend. The average price of the mainstream market in East China fluctuated around the range of 4400-4500 yuan/ton, narrowing the decline compared to June but with weak rebound. Under the dual pressure of weak costs and low demand season, the market lacked clear directional guidance, and industry players had a strong wait-and-see attitude. Actual transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of raw materials: Raw material trends: Recently, the domestic methanol market has been affected by the easing of the geopolitical situation and the expectation of port inventory accumulation, resulting in weak price fluctuations and limited cost support. Although there have been occasional rebounds in liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia prices, they have remained stable overall and have not formed strong support. The operating rate situation: Currently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the overall operating rate is around 40% (in some periods, it is calculated to be in the range of 40% -45%). Some units in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places are in a negative, short-term or long-term shutdown state due to profit or inventory pressure, and the supply increment has been reduced.
Profit situation: Due to the synchronous decline of the raw material side, the theoretical production profit of DMF factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton with narrow fluctuations. The integrated equipment and leading enterprises still have certain profit margins, and have not yet reached the red line of large-scale losses forcing parking. Therefore, the willingness of the factory to actively raise prices or reduce production on a large scale is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
In terms of demand, the main downstream market is weak: PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponds to the traditional high temperature off-season in the footwear, clothing, luggage, and artificial leather industries, with insufficient terminal orders and low operating rates of pulp factories. DMF procurement is implemented on a “as needed” basis, with no intention of stockpiling. Other areas have limited support: although the demand for pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, and electronic grade solvents is relatively stable, the proportion of volume is not enough to offset the gap in pulp decline; Although there has been a surge in exports in the early stages (such as a record high in May), the recent off-season overseas and fluctuations in shipping costs have led to a marginal weakening of the digestion effect of export growth on domestic inventory.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if the raw material methanol continues to weaken due to port storage, the cost center of DMF will shift downwards, and if the industry’s production starts to recover with the restart of previous maintenance facilities (such as some in Henan and Hubei), supply pressure will once again become prominent.