Recently, the lithium carbonate market has experienced severe fluctuations. As of June 23, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 157000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21% from the high point of 199000 yuan/ton on May 12 this year.
Supply side: Multiple pressure variables suppress the market
The recent changes in key land approval for the Jianxiawo lithium mine project have significantly disrupted the expected supply of domestic lithium mica raw materials. The mine is a globally leading single lithium mica deposit, with an annual production capacity of over 100000 tons of lithium carbonate after the project is completed; Affected by the expiration of the original mining license in August 2025, the mine has simultaneously stopped mining. As of now, the shutdown period has exceeded 10 months, and the industry has formed a monthly equivalent supply gap of nearly 10000 tons of lithium salt. Its resumption progress has always been a core observation variable in the lithium industry chain.
The Department of Natural Resources of Jiangxi Province officially issued the “Preliminary Review and Site Selection Opinion Letter for Construction Project Land” for Jianxiawo Lithium Mine on June 17, 2026. The license is valid from June 17, 2026 to June 17, 2029, and the administrative license subject is Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., which is an indirectly controlled mining platform by Ningde Times. This approval has obvious time characteristics: the original land pre-approval document for the project was only applied for cancellation by the enterprise on June 8th, and the complete process of canceling the old certificate and issuing the new certificate was completed with a ten day interval. The rapid implementation of policy procedures has boosted the market’s optimistic expectation for the rapid resumption of mining production.
However, judging from the legal approval chain for mineral development, the mine does not have the conditions for resuming production in the short term. The preliminary review of land use is only a pre planning procedure for the project. Subsequently, multiple provincial-level joint review processes need to be completed in sequence, including the delineation of mining area boundaries, evaluation of mineral resource development and utilization plans, environmental and safety assessment filing, issuance of mining license changes, and acceptance of safety production permits. The entire process takes a long time, and the current implementation of a single land use permit cannot support the short-term release of incremental raw material supply.
Overseas mining sector: In the long run, the supply and demand relationship of lithium carbonate is moving towards relaxation
Zimbabwe: The first batch of lithium ore has started shipping in mid May. Several Chinese companies with layouts in Zimbabwe have stated that the exported lithium concentrate is still in transit by sea and is expected to arrive at domestic ports by the end of June to early July. The bulk lithium ore is expected to arrive at the port in July. According to reports, Chinese companies have about 5000 tons of lithium concentrate in transit.
Australian mine: Bald Hill officially announced its restart on May 19th, with the first batch of lithium crystal ore expected to be produced in July. Finnis’ first batch of ore will enter the processing production line in the third quarter, and Ngungaju beneficiation plant plans to officially restart production in early July. We are fundamentally changing the pattern of “tight supply”, and it is expected that the increase in supply will begin to emerge in the fourth quarter of this year. In the long run, the supply and demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is tending towards relaxation.
Continuous prosperity on the demand side
Recently, the downstream market of lithium carbonate has shown a structural trend of stable bottoming out in the automotive sector, high growth in energy storage, and cautious procurement. Power batteries are still the basic demand, and domestic sales of new energy vehicles have maintained a slight growth. The increase in single vehicle electric capacity has offset the slowdown in sales growth. The production of lithium iron phosphate has steadily increased compared to the previous period. However, car companies and battery factories strictly control raw material inventory and only replenish small orders according to demand, without centralized hoarding behavior.

Energy storage is the core increment, with a significant year-on-year increase in lithium battery production in June. The orders for energy storage cells are full and the schedule is extended until the end of the year. The demand for power generation and industrial and commercial distribution storage continues to be released, becoming the largest growth engine for lithium consumption. The proportion of consumer electronics demand is extremely low, and its impact on the market is weak.
The overall downstream production continues to rebound, and the industrial chain has entered a continuous destocking cycle. However, high futures positions suppress market sentiment, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is heavy. The main focus is on essential procurement, and short-term demand elasticity is limited. The annual growth is highly dependent on the realization of energy storage installed capacity.
Market forecast:
Overall, the current long short game is balanced with no clear unilateral driving force, and it is expected that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a trend of rising and falling. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of June 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.37% compared to the beginning of this month (9700.00 yuan/ton).
On the raw material side, the price of propylene has continued to weaken this week. On June 18th, the propylene market in Shandong fell to 7934.33 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 426.67 yuan/ton from the previous day. The further weakening of raw material support is one of the important factors dragging down the price of epoxy propane. As of June 18th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7934.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.14% compared to the beginning of this month (9134.33 yuan/ton).
On the supply side, the centralized maintenance in the early stage once compressed the industry’s capacity utilization rate to 59.58%. But in the middle of the year, Wanhua’s equipment resumed production, and the marginal benefits of maintenance decreased. The current capacity utilization rate has rebounded to over 63%, and the increase in supplier shipments is limited, and inventory pressure has not been effectively alleviated.
Demand side: The traditional off-season in June has significant characteristics. The operating rate of the largest downstream polyether polyol is only about 52.56%, and the end user inventory cycle is prolonged, resulting in slow follow-up of new orders. The prices of polyether and epichlorohydrin continue to invert, and the downstream procurement strategy has shifted to “replenishing inventory with small orders as needed”.
Comprehensive forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, the epoxy propane market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. Whether the price can stabilize depends on the trend of raw material propylene and the dynamics of equipment maintenance.

Since June, the decline in the domestic styrene market has gradually intensified. On June 1st, the average price of styrene was 8844 yuan/ton, and on June 18th, the average price of styrene was 7940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.22% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 3.52%.
Macro: On June 17th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.79 per barrel, an increase of $0.74 or 0.98%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $79.55 per barrel, an increase of $0.59 or 0.75%.
Cost aspect: The raw material pure benzene market fluctuates with the fluctuation of crude oil prices. Currently, the United States and Iran are about to reach a peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz may be fully opened, and overseas market maintenance facilities have returned, easing the tight supply situation. The domestic supply and demand of pure benzene remain tight and balanced, with weak demand, and a short-term trend is expected.
Supply and demand side: In June, the styrene plant will undergo maintenance and restart simultaneously. Overall, the restart of the plant will be more concentrated in late June, and the supply will increase. The price of styrene has fallen, downstream profits have recovered, but downstream inventory release is slow, and procurement is mainly driven by essential needs, with limited demand pull.
Styrene external market: On June 17th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $20/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1050-1060/ton. CFR China closing price is 1035-1045 USD/ton.
Market forecast: With a decline in geopolitical premiums and weak fundamentals, it is expected that the styrene market will face difficulties in rising in the short term, and the market will mainly experience weak fluctuations.

As of June 17, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6833 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan or 0.49% compared to June 12 (reference price of n-butanol was 6800 yuan/ton).
1、 Price Trend Review
In mid June, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province first stabilized and then slightly increased. Some n-butanol suppliers in Shandong Province raised the shipment price of n-butanol narrowly by 30-100 yuan/ton. On June 17th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong Province was around 6800-6900 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply side of n-butanol is stable, with a slight increase in downstream demand. After downstream users digest raw material inventory, overall demand has rebounded, and the narrow transmission of supply and demand has improved, providing some impetus for the upward trend of the market.
Market mentality: In the first half of the year, the n-butanol market was mostly in the consolidation stage, and there was a sense of expectation for the market to rise. Some operators had a certain reluctance to sell, which helped to push up prices slightly.
3、 Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild. In the short term, the n-butanol market price will mainly continue to fluctuate within the current market range. It is necessary to pay more attention to whether there is a sustained positive release in the market, downstream actual purchasing follow-up strength, upstream raw material fluctuations, and on-site inventory situation.

market trend
According to monitoring data, the domestic PA66 market price has continued to decline in the past week (June 9-16). On June 9th, the benchmark price of PA66 market was 20866.67 yuan/ton, and on June 15th, the benchmark price fell to 19800.00 yuan/ton, showing a steady downward trend in price. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is light, and transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
influencing factors
Cost side: Cost support continues to weaken. The market for core raw material adipic acid has been continuously declining, with prices continuing to decline this week, directly lowering the cost of raw materials for PA66 production; At the same time, the new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine was released, the market supply of goods was sufficient, and the price remained stable with a slight decline, further weakening the support of the raw material side. The loosening of the crude oil price center and the lack of obvious benefits in the upstream energy chain, coupled with the fact that PA66 production enterprises still maintain basic processing profits, there is no situation where losses force production cuts. The cost side is difficult to effectively support spot prices, and the downward resistance to prices is relatively small.
Supply and demand side: Overall, there is a pattern of loose supply and weak demand. In terms of supply, the industry’s operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The overall supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is gradually accumulating. The pressure to ship has increased, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts to promote transactions has increased. In terms of demand, the recovery of downstream terminal industries has fallen short of expectations, with weak demand in mainstream application areas such as automobiles and general engineering plastics. Coupled with the current industry entering a traditional off-season, downstream factories are only maintaining rigid replenishment, and their willingness to purchase in large quantities is low. The overall market demand is difficult to boost, which continues to drag down the rise of PA66 market.
technical analysis
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of PA66 has been continuously weakening since June 1st, with an average difference of -113.33 yuan/ton on June 14th. The average difference has narrowed from negative to widening again, indicating that the PA66 market continues to decline and the rate of decline has expanded again. The price has dropped from 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 19800 yuan/ton, which is below the annual median.
Future forecast
In the short term, the PA66 market will continue to experience weak fluctuations and a slight downward shift in focus. The overall trend will be dominated by a weak stalemate, and it is difficult for a significant rise or fall to occur. The bottom support of costs will limit the extent of market decline, but the short board on the supply and demand side is difficult to quickly repair, and the weak trend of downstream demand is difficult to reverse in the short term. The expected price range for PA66 in the near future is between 19500-20200 yuan/ton.