Author Archives: lubon

Downstream demand is sluggish, and polyethylene prices are weak

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7368 yuan/ton on June 2 and 7346 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 0.29% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9166 yuan/ton on June 2nd and 9216 yuan/ton on June 6th, with a rise of 0.55% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8095 yuan/ton on June 2nd and 8062 yuan/ton on June 6th, with a decrease of 0.40% during this period.
Recently, the polyethylene market has been fluctuating. The trend of high-voltage products is relatively strong, with a slight increase in quotations, mainly due to the impact of the equipment entering a major overhaul in June, and the market supply may decrease. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, which to some extent supports the polyethylene market. However, the demand for agricultural film is in the off-season, and the overall operating rate remains low. The market demand is weak, and downstream product enterprises mainly purchase for essential needs. The willingness to replenish inventory is poor, and the flow of goods is not smooth, resulting in weak quotes from traders.
The market has equipment for parking and maintenance, coupled with the addition of new production capacity, the supply pressure is still ongoing; The demand is in the traditional off-season, and it is expected that the trend of polyethylene will not improve, mainly due to weak operation.

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This week, the TDI market experienced a slight decline (6.2-6.6)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has fluctuated and fallen this week. As of June 6th, the average market price in East China was 12133 yuan/ton, and on June 2nd, the average price was 12266 yuan/ton. It fell 1.09% within the week and 18.57% year-on-year.
This week, the focus of the TDI market has slightly shifted downwards. During the week, the equipment of major factories remained at its original level, and the supply side remained stable. The supplier has a strong willingness to raise prices, and intermediaries have accelerated their delivery speed, resulting in a slight decrease in prices. Downstream demand is the main factor, entering the market at low prices, and high-level supply is not smooth. Under the game of supply and demand, the TDI market has made a slight adjustment.
Supply side: Fujian and Gansu are operating at medium to high loads. BASF in Shanghai will begin maintenance in mid May and is expected to restart in early June. The 300000 ton/year TDI plant in Fujian will undergo maintenance in early June, lasting for 45 days.
Cost wise: The price of toluene has increased, with an average price of 5550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5628 yuan/ton over the weekend, representing a 1.43% increase during the week. Downstream on-demand procurement, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is weak.
Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current trading atmosphere in the TDI market is average, with limited support from the demand side. The market needs more guidance from news sources and closely monitors changes in market supply and demand. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

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Supply increases, n-butanol market in Shandong region declines

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6250 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6400 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34%.
From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week after the holiday (6.01-6.05), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed a weak downward trend. During the week, the focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market shifted towards lower levels, with some n-butanol factories in Shandong province continuously lowering their n-butanol shipment prices by around 100-150 yuan per ton. As of June 5th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 6200-6300 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the supply side: After the holiday, some units in the n-butanol plant resumed operation, and the overall supply of n-butanol increased. Some factories actively shipped to maintain low inventory and adjusted the n-butanol price downwards. The market support provided by the supply side for n-butanol weakened, and the n-butanol market was under pressure to decline.
On the demand side: After the holiday, the boost in demand for n-butanol was average, and downstream stage procurement has not yet started significantly. Overall, demand is cautious and rigid procurement is the main focus, and the demand side provides moderate support for the n-butanol market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is average. There is a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly adjust within a certain range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

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In May, the domestic phenol market experienced more declines than gains

In May, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell, with the market mainly experiencing a downturn. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 6712 yuan/ton on May 1st and 6680 yuan/ton on May 30th, a decrease of 0.4%.
After the May Day holiday, crude oil fell below the 60 mark during the holiday season, and pure benzene fell sharply. However, the next day, pure benzene was driven by crude oil and macro factors, and prices quickly rose. Phenol traders also took the opportunity to actively boost the market, and downstream suppliers actively replenished their stocks. However, there were signs of high reports and low prices, and the overall market still showed a steady upward trend.
In the latter half of the month, there was a lack of support on the cost side, and the participation of phenol traders was limited. Considering the high monthly average price, traders had weak willingness to offer discounts. However, with the low atmosphere at the end of the month and insufficient follow-up on trading, the market also fell into a stalemate.
As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region./30 day quotation /May’s ups and downs
East China region / 6600./ 0
Shandong region / 6750./ -50
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6750./ -50
South China region / 6700./ -50
In terms of equipment in May, the first and second phase phenol ketone units of Huizhou Zhongxin were shut down and switched on May 6th, and the 350000 tons/year phenol ketone unit of Zhongsha Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down on April 21st, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days; Shandong Fuyu 250000 tons/year phenol ketone plant will shut down from May 18th to 27th; The 150000 tons/year phenol ketone plant of Blue Star Harbin will shut down for one week at the end of the month.
Business Society predicts that the market will fluctuate within a certain range in June. Looking at the planned reduction in contracts between Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Ruiheng in June, it is expected that the supply pressure will not be significant; In terms of demand, the downstream phenolic resin industry has been impacted by the high temperature off-season, resulting in a decrease in operating rates; In late June, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plans to sell phenol externally. It is expected that the market will rise first and then fall in June, with an overall price of 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

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The price of epoxy propane first rose and then fell in May

The epoxy propane market showed a trend of first rising and then falling in May. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, the mainstream price in Shandong was 7325 yuan/ton at the beginning of May. On May 16th, the price had reached a high point of 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.46% compared to the beginning of the month. In late May, the trading atmosphere of epoxy propane gradually weakened, and the price fell. As of May 29th, the mainstream price in Shandong was 7343.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of the month. At present, the market lacks favorable factors, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will remain stable with a narrow range of consolidation next month.
Price influencing factors:
Supply side: Due to the continuous losses of many epoxy propane production enterprises last month, some enterprises reduced their losses and stopped production, resulting in tight spot supply after the May Day holiday. In addition, in mid May, the mentality of epoxy propane manufacturers improved due to the reduction of “equivalent tariffs” between China and the United States, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices remained strong, leading to a continuous upward trend in the market. However, in late May, there was significant pressure on epoxy propane shipments, high inventory levels were under pressure, and destocking pressure was high, resulting in a downward trend in the price center.
Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has fluctuated downward, providing weak support for the cost of epoxy propane. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6560.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream polyether market has a good trading atmosphere after the May Day holiday, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. In the middle of the month, due to the impact of tariff policies and the peak season of terminal demand, procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the market center of gravity has risen. After the centralized replenishment of terminals in the latter half of the year, they are in a state of clearing inventory, and the enthusiasm for market inquiries has decreased, with the market focus mainly declining.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that currently, downstream demand growth is limited, market trading atmosphere is cold, and demand support is insufficient. In addition, the cost side propylene market is showing a weak consolidation trend, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will continue to be mainly weakly consolidated in June. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

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