In the first half of July, the overall formaldehyde market showed a fluctuating downward trend. The market trend is dominated by the two-way game of cost and supply and demand, presenting the core characteristics of “raw materials first suppress and then rise, terminal demand is weak in the off-season, and market supply is slightly contracted”. As of July 15th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was reported at 1243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% from the beginning of the month.
Driving factor analysis
Cost side: weak at first, then strong, with support shifting from loose to tight
The international market variables have driven the recovery of the methanol market. Affected by the news of the US Iran freight channel on July 14th, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified, and the expectation of tightening methanol supply has risen. The rebound and upward adjustment of methanol spot prices in many domestic places have directly promoted the repair of formaldehyde cost support.
However, the upward space for methanol prices is limited, and the positive support for formaldehyde is difficult to sustain and amplify. It is expected that the domestic methanol import sources will concentrate at the port in mid to late July, and the port inventory will show a cumulative trend. Coupled with the overall weak terminal demand of the entire industry chain, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient, which can only provide a bottom support for the formaldehyde market and cannot promote a significant increase in its price.
Demand side: Continued weakness, driven by rigid demand, cautious procurement
July is the off-season for traditional formaldehyde consumption, and multiple factors are suppressing the recovery of terminal demand. Firstly, the scorching summer heat and periodic floods in the south directly restrict the production of sheet metal and adhesive enterprises in core production areas such as southern China and Guangxi, resulting in low activity in terminal production and a significant decrease in market enthusiasm for purchasing goods; Secondly, the new national standards for the sheet metal industry continue to be implemented and promoted, and the industry is in a transitional period of capacity adjustment and process adaptation. Downstream enterprises generally implement low inventory operation strategies, only purchasing on demand without bulk stocking actions; Thirdly, downstream supporting industries such as adhesives and urea formaldehyde resins have overall low profits and weak cost transmission capabilities, further suppressing the urgent release of formaldehyde. Overall, the demand for formaldehyde terminals in the first half of this month was lower than the same period last year compared to the same period last year. The market was mainly dominated by scattered transactions for essential needs, without the support of a centralized replenishment market.
Supply side: Fine tuning of production, overall controllable support for the market
Affected by the decline in product prices and shrinking industry profits in the early stage, many domestic formaldehyde production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production, and some small and medium-sized units have temporarily stopped for maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry has slightly fallen, and the effective supply of goods in the market has moderately contracted. The moderate reduction on the supply side effectively offset the negative pressure on the demand side, avoiding the risk of a deep decline in market prices, and providing key support for the stabilization of the market in mid July. At the same time, the overall inventory of the industry remains at a low level, and the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory is relatively small, which continues to highlight the mentality of raising prices.
Market forecast: weak and stable oscillations are the main trend, with limited room for ups and downs

The short-term market will present a volatile pattern of “cost bottoming out and demand peaking”. On the cost side, methanol is expected to operate strongly in the short term due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the increase in import sources, port inventory accumulation, and weak terminal demand will continue to limit its upward potential. The overall cost of formaldehyde is stable but under pressure, with weak upward momentum. On the demand side, the summer off-season effect continues, and the trend of high temperatures, low operating rates of terminal enterprises, and cautious market procurement is difficult to reverse in the short term. Weak demand remains the core factor suppressing market conditions. The overall supply side is controllable, and manufacturers continue to operate at low production and low inventory levels, which provides a certain support for market prices. The overall market situation has limited room for fluctuations.

In the first half of July, the domestic ABS market stabilized at a low level and then rose, with most spot prices of various grades experiencing a wide correction. As of July 14th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9916.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.20% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter July, the domestic ABS industry’s equipment load remains stable with small fluctuations, and the overall operating rate within the range is close to 60%. The current weekly average production is around 130000 tons. The inventory location of finished products has been significantly reduced to less than 210000 tons. The shipment situation of aggregation plants within the range has rebounded, and there is no expectation of a contraction in production in the short term. Overall, the support for spot prices from the ABS supply side in July is still acceptable.
Cost factor: News of the preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran in the Middle East in June was frequent, but the recent end of the ceasefire agreement has led to a situation of fluctuation. The risk of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, and there are concerns in the market about international crude oil supply, leading to a rapid return of geopolitical premiums. Affected by it, the price of pure benzene rose strongly, driving styrene to follow suit. At the same time, the on-site inventory is steadily being digested, and the demand side is building a solid foundation.
The acrylonitrile market is the opposite, with the combination of high operating rates and weak downstream consumption suppressing spot prices. However, the rise in crude oil and propylene provided some support, and as the middle of the month approached, the market stopped falling and stabilized. However, the overall demand off-season is expected to continue until around mid August, and at the same time, the new production capacity of 660000 tons from Zhejiang Petrochemical and 130000 tons from China UK Petrochemical will also be implemented in the later stage. Oversupply in the future will continue to envelop the acrylonitrile market. In addition to external news and supply variables, acrylonitrile prices may once again fluctuate near the cost line for a long time in the future.
In the first half of July, the domestic butadiene market was consolidating and operating strongly. Shenhua Ningmei, Gulei Petrochemical and other early-stage maintenance enterprises have gradually returned, and the on-site supply of goods has been relaxed. Downstream terminal products have poor profits, and there is a shortage of inventory expansion operations. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, with small trading orders being the main focus.
On the demand side, there were limited changes in the start of work for downstream ABS enterprises in July. The main terminal appliance industry is still in the off-season, with poor consumption levels of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. There has been an increase in local replenishment operations within the range, but the buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods, and tends to take goods as needed, resulting in fewer warehouse building operations. The willingness to chase price increases on the market is average, and merchants follow the market and withdraw funds. Overall, the short-term surge in consumption supports the ABS market, but there is a lack of large-scale forward contracts, resulting in a slight lack of momentum on the demand side.
Future forecast
After the domestic ABS market stopped falling in the first half of July, it rose. The cost and material distribution within the interval are differentiated, and the production load of the aggregation plant changes narrowly. The inventory digestion is significant, and the on-site supply still maintains a sufficient range. Over the past half month, there has been a significant increase in ABS consumption, but the situation of unit price losses has worsened. The current market has average momentum, and once the temporary demand support subsides, the upward trend may be hindered in the future.

On July 13th, the price of ethylene glycol rose
On July 13, 2026, the price of ethylene glycol rose. As of July 13th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders is 4415 yuan/ton.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. On July 13, 2026, the price of ethylene glycol futures surged, and the basis and price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo rose synchronously. The spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) operates within the range of+170 to+175 on the basis of daily quotes for this week’s spot contract.
Summary of the reasons for the increase in ethylene glycol prices on July 13, 2026:
On July 13, 2026, the price of ethylene glycol rose, mainly due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran, which pushed up the cost of crude oil and naphtha. At the same time, the market was concerned about the transportation of imported goods from the Middle East, coupled with the concentrated maintenance of multiple sets of ethylene glycol plants in China, the continuous depletion of inventory in East China ports to the lowest level in recent years, the tight supply of spot goods, the slight rebound in polyester production, the market’s early game with downstream traditional gold, silver, and ten peak season expectations, as well as the low price of short positions leaving and speculative long positions entering the market in the early stage, multiple positive factors jointly drove.
Latest news from the Strait of Hormuz:
On the early morning of July 12th local time, the Iranian Islamic Guard unilaterally announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to continued regional intervention by the US military, until the US stops its actions; On the same day, the US military launched a large-scale airstrike, striking coastal facilities, missile positions, and targets on Gesham Island in the southern province of Hormuzgan, Iran, resulting in one death and two injuries. They also carried out operations against Iranian speedboat units around the strait. Iran immediately used missiles and drones to strike the US military base in Udad, Qatar, the US military logistics platform in Duqum Port, Oman, and US military bases in Jordan and Bahrain. Qatar was hit by shrapnel and three people were injured; Previously, Iran had attacked foreign merchant ships that deviated from designated routes and closed their positioning systems in the strait, causing damage to a container ship and missing crew members.
Iran: Reiterate the complete ban on navigation in the strait, and all ships must wait for the situation to ease before reapplying for passage permits. Navigation without following Iran’s designated route will not be guaranteed safety;
United States: Both the US military and President Trump claim that the strait is open and the southern Oman side of the waterway can pass normally. The US military provides escort coordination and denies that Iran has control over the strait. In the past 24 hours, about 20 merchant ships have completed transit under the coordination of the US military;
China’s statement: The strait is an international navigation hub, and ensuring safe and free passage is in line with global common interests. We call on all parties to properly resolve conflicts and restore stability to the waterway. China is willing to maintain multi-party communication and coordination.
Consequence: Global energy risk premium rises, Brent and US crude oil prices rise simultaneously; On July 13th, domestic ethylene glycol saw a significant increase due to concerns about geopolitical supply, and the market began trading. The expected closure of the strait has led to obstacles in importing goods from the Middle East and an increase in upstream raw material costs, among other favorable factors.

PTA experienced a deep decline in June, and in July, it relied on centralized maintenance to initiate a repair market, showing an overall strong range oscillation pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5910 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the month.
Cost side: PX maintenance support cost
July is the peak period for annual maintenance of PX, with multiple large-scale PX facilities such as Shenghong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining and Chemical shutting down simultaneously. The Asian PX operating rate has fallen to a low point this year, and the price difference between PX and Sinopec remains high, firmly holding onto the bottom line of PTA costs; Brent crude oil fluctuates narrowly within the range of $70-73, with limited geopolitical disturbance and no risk of collapse on the cost side.
Supply side: Maintenance contraction, continuous inventory depletion
Multiple sets of PTA main equipment are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to around 57% in July, which is at a low level in recent years. The market’s supply of goods is tightening, and port and factory inventories are steadily decreasing. Spot processing fees remain at a high level of 600-700 yuan/ton, supporting the resilience of spot prices.
Demand side: textile off-season suppresses upward space
July is still the traditional off-season for textiles, with an overall polyester production rate of about 80%. The inventory of finished polyester filament products is high, and the autumn and winter orders for weaving terminals have not been released in a concentrated manner. Factories mainly purchase sporadically for basic needs and are unwilling to actively stock up, which limits the upward height of PTA; The market is mainly waiting for the August peak season replenishment signal.
Business analysts believe that the current maintenance cycle for PX and PTA has not yet ended, and the tight supply-demand balance pattern continues. PTA will maintain a high range of fluctuations, with stable bottom support, making it difficult to experience a deep pullback. At the end of July to early August, a large number of maintenance facilities were restarted one after another, and the supply increment was released. The focus of the market will shift to downstream peak season order fulfillment efforts.

The price of isobutyraldehyde has risen
As of July 9th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 6666.67 yuan/ton, a rebound increase of 1.52% compared to the price of isobutyraldehyde on July 1st, which was 6566.67 yuan/ton. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has risen, supported by demand for isobutyraldehyde. The price of raw material propylene has also increased, supported by rising costs and demand. As a result, isobutyraldehyde prices have bottomed out and risen.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
On July 9th, the propylene price was 7921 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 1.41% compared to the propylene price of 7811 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to July 6th, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased by 7647.67 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.57%. The United States has tightened sanctions on Iranian oil, intensified the shipping safety crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, escalated the US Iran confrontation, and crude oil prices have risen in response, which has been transmitted downstream. The price of propylene has rebounded and risen, and the cost support of isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Isobutyraldehyde demand support
In July, the price of neopentyl glycol rose, and the price of neopentyl glycol stopped falling and rose. The weak demand for isobutyraldehyde eased, and the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde still exists.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that in July, the price of propylene stopped falling and rose, while the cost of isobutyraldehyde increased; In terms of demand, the price of neopentyl glycol has stopped falling and risen, while the weak demand for isobutyraldehyde has eased. Overall, the weak demand for the rising cost of isobutyraldehyde has eased, coupled with a strong willingness to raise prices. The expected price of isobutyraldehyde is expected to rise, but downstream support for upward movement is insufficient, and the upward space for isobutyraldehyde is limited. It is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate slightly in the future.