The current rise in acrylic acid prices is mainly driven by the rising costs of crude oil, propane, and propylene due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rather than a shortage of production capacity. The market is characterized by short-term strength, pulse rise, and weak sustainability. The turning point of the price will be determined by the trend of oil prices, the situation of raw material prices stopping rising, and downstream willingness to receive goods.
1、 Market Overview
As of March 3, 2026, the benchmark price of acrylic acid is 6583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.67% compared to the beginning of this month (6350.00 yuan/ton).
During the same period, the spot price of propylene in East China was 6480 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PDH cost was between 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the cost continued to increase. Brent crude oil has risen to $65-75 per barrel due to geopolitical premiums, with the Strait of Hormuz accounting for 20% -30% of global seaborne crude oil trade, and energy supply chain expectations tightening. The total domestic production capacity of acrylic acid is about 4.4 million tons per year, with a self-sufficiency rate of nearly 100%. The production capacity of acrylic acid in the Middle East is only 400000 to 450000 tons per year, accounting for less than 5% of the global market share, and has minimal direct impact on the domestic market supply.
2、 Cost end
Acrylic acid is mainly produced through the propylene oxidation process, with raw material costs accounting for over 60% and strong cost transmission rigidity. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the prices of crude oil and LPG, driving up the prices of raw materials such as propane and naphtha, pushing up the cost of propylene and transmitting it to acrylic acid, resulting in a passive upward trend in the market. The domestic PDH route has a high proportion and is sensitive to the supply and logistics of propane in the Middle East. The risk premium on the energy side quickly translates into cost support, which is the core driving force behind this round of price increases.
3、 Supply side
The Middle East is not a major producer of acrylic acid globally, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption to the domestic market. The overall supply side remains loose. However, the potential disturbance brought by geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. If the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will directly affect the logistics efficiency and supply expectations of global LPG and propylene, push up international fuel and chemical raw material prices, and indirectly intensify the cost pressure on domestic acrylic acid enterprises. At present, the overall operation of the industry is stable, and there is sufficient domestic supply of goods. The price increase is not due to supply contraction, but the result of the combined effect of cost push and enterprise price increase.
4、 Demand side
The Middle East is not a major production area for acrylic acid, and there is currently no direct risk of supply interruption domestically. The overall supply is loose. But if the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, it will affect the global logistics and supply expectations of LPG and propylene, push up international raw material prices, and indirectly exacerbate the cost pressure of domestic acrylic acid. At present, the industry is operating steadily and the supply is sufficient. This round of price increases is not a contraction of supply, but a combination of cost push and enterprise price increase.
5、 Subsequent market trends

Under the benchmark scenario, if the conflict is limited and shipping is normal, and oil prices operate in the range of $65-75 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to rise by 5% -10%, and the rise will last for 2-4 weeks. Later, it will gradually fluctuate and fall back with the increase of downstream resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for 1-2 weeks in the short term, oil prices will rise to 80-90 US dollars per barrel, and acrylic acid prices may jump by 15% -25%. The strong market will last for 4-8 weeks, and gradually decline after the conflict eases. If there is a long-term conflict and interruption of raw material supply for more than one month, and oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, acrylic acid is expected to increase by more than 30%, and the upward cycle will be extended to 3-6 months, but the probability of this scenario occurring is low.
In summary, the main risks in the current market are concentrated in the unexpected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, significant fluctuations in oil prices, excessive pressure on downstream profits leading to load reduction and production cuts, and the release of new production capacity causing the industry to return to loose conditions. We need to focus on tracking three core indicators in the future: Brent crude oil price, East China propylene spot price, propane/CP price, and changes in PDH profit.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the February market for polyaluminum chloride in China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) market was mainly reported at around 1720 yuan/ton on the 28th and 1720 yuan/ton on the 1st, maintaining stability. The water treatment market in China’s main production areas has abundant supply, and downstream procurement is based on demand. The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has declined, the fuel market has declined, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride has decreased. During the off-season of demand before and after the Spring Festival, procurement for municipal/industrial projects slowed down and stocking decreased. In the early stage of resuming work after the holiday, the demand for goods gradually recovered, but the overall procurement volume was limited and mainly consisted of small orders.
Raw material hydrochloric acid: In February, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell, and as of February 28th, the price of hydrochloric acid was at 75 yuan/ton.
Liquefied natural gas for production. The domestic liquefied natural gas market prices fell sharply in February. As of February 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 3118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.63% from 3610 yuan/ton on February 1st. The liquefied natural gas market is showing an overall trend of oversupply.
Market forecast: The raw material hydrochloric acid market will decline in February, the fuel liquefied natural gas market will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decrease. On the supply side, China has abundant inventory of polyaluminum chloride; On the demand side, downstream work resumed in March, and demand gradually rebounded; The supply increases with the increase of operating rate, and the supply-demand trend is weakly balanced. It is expected that the recent market trend of polyaluminum chloride will mainly consolidate.

In February 2026, the acetone market showed an overall downward trend, with prices slightly falling compared to the beginning of the month. The core reason was that the market was in a state of loose supply and demand due to abundant supply and demand recovery, and prices showed a characteristic of “high-level decline and narrow adjustment at the end of the month”. In February, acetone prices continued their downward trend from their high in January, with a moderate downward trend and small regional differences. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acetone on February 27th was 4605.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02% from the beginning of the month (4700.00 yuan/ton). Currently, it is at a mid to low level in the past year, only higher than the annual minimum value of 4047.50 yuan/ton and 557.5 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Increased operating rate and continuous accumulation of inventory
In February, the domestic acetone supply side showed a pattern of “rising operating rates and increasing inventory”, which was the main driving force behind the market downturn. As of February 24th, the inventory of acetone in domestic ports was 51500 tons, an increase of 10000 tons from February 13th, which is at a reasonable above average level. The operating rate of domestic phenol ketone factories is 88.64%, an increase of 2.61% compared to last week. With reduced equipment maintenance and sufficient capacity release, coupled with the expected increase in production capacity in 2026, the pattern of oversupply has not changed. The arrival of ship cargo in the later stage will further increase inventory and strengthen the situation of abundant supply.
Demand side: Downstream resumption of work lags behind, procurement demand is flat
The slower than expected recovery in demand is another core factor contributing to the market downturn. The Spring Festival holiday in February caused a delay in downstream resumption of work, with procurement mainly focused on essential needs, making it difficult to digest sufficient supply. In the main downstream, the operating rates of bisphenol A, MMA, and isopropanol have all declined, while MIBK’s operating rates remain unchanged without any increase; Solvent factories will basically shut down during the Spring Festival, further weakening demand support.
Limited cost support and flat market sentiment
On the cost side, this month’s strong pure benzene has provided some support for acetone, easing the downward trend but not changing the trend; The high-level transmission of crude oil is limited, coupled with oversupply, and cost support is weakened. In terms of market sentiment, the basic chemical sector where acetone is located is differentiated, with industry players mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach and weak willingness to actively purchase, which is driving down prices.
Short term stable fluctuations, medium to long term pressure still exists
The decline in the acetone market in February was the result of a combination of abundant supply and weak demand. The current loose supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, with short-term price fluctuations and medium to long-term pressure. In the short term, the resumption of downstream work and production will drive a slow rebound in demand, but supply remains abundant. It is expected that acetone spot prices will show weak fluctuations in March, with mainstream prices in East China ranging from 4500 to 4700 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24642 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.83% from the zinc price of 24438 yuan/ton on February 24th.
The zinc price shows a narrow horizontal oscillation pattern, and the market is stuck in a long short stalemate. At the beginning of the week, prices were slightly under pressure due to inventory exceeding 200000 tons; Although there was cost support during the week, the slow resumption of downstream work resulted in weak upward momentum. Overall, the zinc market has been in a phase of strong supply and weak demand imbalance this week, but the potential for price decline is constrained by smelting costs, exhibiting a typical “top and bottom” characteristic.
Raw material end
The processing fees for imported minerals remain stable, while the supply of raw materials remains tight. In sharp contrast to the accumulation of inventory on the finished product side, the tense situation on the raw material side has not yet eased. This week, the mainstream processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate remained stable in the range of 1200-1500 yuan/metal ton, while the processing fee for imported ore was in a low and fluctuating pattern. Some mines in the northern region have not yet achieved full resumption of production, and coupled with limited supply of imported minerals, the situation of tight raw material supply has not changed. This pattern of “tight supply of raw materials and loose inventory of finished products” has greatly compressed the profit margin of the smelting process, but it also provides solid cost support for zinc prices.
Supply and demand side
The most prominent feature on the zinc supply side this week is the unexpected increase in social inventory, which has become a key factor in suppressing zinc prices. Currently, the social inventory has successfully surpassed the important threshold of 210000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, this inventory level is significantly higher – during the Spring Festival, the cumulative inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 49300 tons, and the increase was 12700 tons more than the same period last year. At the same time, the inventory of the previous period also showed a significant synchronous increase. The weekly inventory data released on February 27th showed that zinc inventory increased by 39027 tons this week. In the field of non-ferrous metals, this growth rate ranks among the top, fully reflecting the significant pressure on delivery warehouses to enter the inventory.
The spot trading market remains sluggish. This week, the spot market as a whole showed a significant feature of “active shipment by shippers and cautious procurement by receivers”. Holders of goods generally quote inflated prices while actual transactions are low-key. Even with multiple price cuts and price increases, market transactions remain weak. This “price for quantity” operation fully reflects the urgent willingness of traders to destocking under the pressure of inventory backlog. The recovery pace of downstream industries’ operating rates is slow, and the overall recovery progress is significantly slower than the same period in previous years.
comprehensive analysis
This week, the zinc market is struggling to maintain a balance amidst intense competition between accumulated inventory pressure and cost support. In the short term, the upward trend in prices lacks momentum due to the lack of coordinated cooperation from the demand side, and the downward trend is constrained by cost factors, making it difficult to deeply fall. The volatile pattern may be difficult to break in the short term. From a medium-term perspective, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches in March, if inventory can be smoothly reduced, zinc prices are expected to experience a temporary recovery trend.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in February, with an average price of 3431.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3418.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.77%.
Supply side: Fluorite manufacturers have more holidays and reduced spot supply
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased. However, the domestic fluorite market as a whole presents a weak supply-demand situation and a stalemate. Due to low temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, some mines are limited in operating, and flotation plants have more holidays. At the same time, the current market price has not met the psychological expectations of most mining enterprises and beneficiation plants, and the fluorite market has slightly risen.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market average
The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid remained stable in February, with mainstream prices ranging from 12500-13000 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, while hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock. Despite being in the traditional stocking stage of downstream refrigerant and other industries, the high prices have suppressed procurement demand, thereby affecting the digestion rhythm of upstream raw materials. Fluorite prices have not changed much.
The overall stability and operation of the terminal refrigerant market have been maintained, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry have been strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, and downstream channels mainly focus on stocking up for essential needs. Industry inventory has dropped to a low level in nearly two years; The supply side is constrained by the quota system, coupled with a highly concentrated industry share pattern, and market confidence remains stable. However, a cautious attitude towards upstream procurement is still held, and the price increase of fluorite market is limited.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, with the start of the downstream refrigeration industry’s stocking season, fluorite enterprises are gradually starting production, and some purchases have begun. Overall, the fluorite market price trend is expected to rise in the short term.