The price of isobutyraldehyde has risen
As of July 9th, the domestic price of isobutyraldehyde was 6666.67 yuan/ton, a rebound increase of 1.52% compared to the price of isobutyraldehyde on July 1st, which was 6566.67 yuan/ton. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has risen, supported by demand for isobutyraldehyde. The price of raw material propylene has also increased, supported by rising costs and demand. As a result, isobutyraldehyde prices have bottomed out and risen.
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises
On July 9th, the propylene price was 7921 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 1.41% compared to the propylene price of 7811 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to July 6th, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased by 7647.67 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.57%. The United States has tightened sanctions on Iranian oil, intensified the shipping safety crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, escalated the US Iran confrontation, and crude oil prices have risen in response, which has been transmitted downstream. The price of propylene has rebounded and risen, and the cost support of isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Isobutyraldehyde demand support
In July, the price of neopentyl glycol rose, and the price of neopentyl glycol stopped falling and rose. The weak demand for isobutyraldehyde eased, and the support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde still exists.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that in July, the price of propylene stopped falling and rose, while the cost of isobutyraldehyde increased; In terms of demand, the price of neopentyl glycol has stopped falling and risen, while the weak demand for isobutyraldehyde has eased. Overall, the weak demand for the rising cost of isobutyraldehyde has eased, coupled with a strong willingness to raise prices. The expected price of isobutyraldehyde is expected to rise, but downstream support for upward movement is insufficient, and the upward space for isobutyraldehyde is limited. It is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Market price
On July 8th, the benchmark price of sulfur was 8669.00 yuan/ton. Compared with 8935.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1st), the cumulative decline this week has reached 2.98%. From the recent price trend, the sulfur market shows a clear trend of “stabilizing first and then falling”.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Society Spot Communication
Based on the core principles of the Business Society’s spot market analysis tool, combined with chart data analysis, the following is presented:
1. Moving average system signal:
At the beginning of the week, the price rose slightly, but was suppressed by the downward 20 day moving average, and then fell sharply for two consecutive days; The 10 day line is gradually approaching the 20 day line in the later stage, and the rate of decline has slowed down. Currently, the price is at a short-term low, and there is not much room for further significant decline. However, the two moving averages are still in a bearish pattern, and the upper moving averages will create strong resistance. In the short term, they will only fluctuate and grind to the bottom. If you want to turn up, you have to wait for the 10 day moving average to rise above the 20 day moving average.
2. Price in 5 tiers:
Despite a short-term decline, sulfur remains at a “median” or “medium high” level at the 30 day, 60 day, 90 day, and one-year levels. This means that from a long-term perspective, the current price has not collapsed and is still within the normal range of fluctuations for a pullback. There is still some support space below, but it also means that there is still pressure to hold onto the market above.
3、 Fundamental supply-demand analysis
The performance of sulfur and related industry chains this week is as follows:
1. Domestic sulfur: weak downward trend
Refinery dynamics: Major refineries in Shandong, North China, Northwest China, and other regions have not quoted prices, indicating that manufacturers lack confidence in the future market or have sufficient inventory pressure, and are unwilling to ship at low prices. Local refineries have generally lowered their prices, ranging from 100-600 yuan/ton, leading the market in decline. In the short term, the domestic sulfur market is expected to maintain high volatility and lack a strong rebound drive.
2. Port sulfur: stop falling and stabilize
Market sentiment: There is a lack of effective news on the port side, and industry players generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The trade atmosphere is quiet, and there is very little real interaction. Port prices have temporarily stabilized and are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term, waiting for new positive news to stimulate.
3. Downstream industrial chain
Sulfuric acid: The market is mainly stable, with local fluctuations (Jiangxi and Fujian fell, Yunnan rose), and overall support for sulfur costs is limited.
Phosphate fertilizer (monoammonium/diammonium): Both monoammonium and diammonium phosphate have shown weak demand, with weak follow-up on new orders. Downstream procurement willingness is not high, mainly shipping pending orders. This weak demand cannot provide effective cost transmission support to upstream sulfur.
Titanium dioxide: The market volatility is weak, and the terminal procurement is not active, further confirming the sluggish demand for chemical products at the terminal.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, this week’s sulfur market has been dragged down by weak downstream demand, resulting in a downward shift in price focus. On a technical level, the short-term moving average is in a bearish pattern, with downward momentum still present; However, given that the price has entered the “low” of the 10/20 day cycle, the space for further deep decline may be limited.
Short term forecast: It is expected that the sulfur market will be dominated by weak consolidation and high volatility at the beginning of next week. There is still a risk of domestic sulfur rebounding, while port sulfur may try to bottom out.

On July 7th, the supply side of the East China market remained tight, with the diethylene glycol market remaining stagnant and consolidating. The atmosphere of actual orders was light, with sporadic quotes in the spot market. Domestic sources imported at a discount, while southern sources imported at a discount. The discount for East China increased, and the forward price increased by the end of July. There were almost no transactions in the forward price of August. The mainstream spot price in East China closed at 8200 yuan/ton and -50 yuan/ton; With the expectation of local equipment repair in the South China market, prices led the decline to close at 7300 yuan/ton and -150 yuan/ton; CFR China closed at $928/ton and $-20/ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply: In the short term, the domestic equipment for the supply of diethylene glycol is operating at low load. Recently, Shenghong has maintenance plans, and the domestic production in East China has decreased. There are expectations for Shell and Gulei equipment to be put into operation in South China, and there is a shortage of imported goods in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary to support the main port inventory in East China to drop to a historical low. As of July 6th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at ports in East China was 6800 tons, a decrease of 0.06 million tons from the previous statistical period. This week (July 7-13), there are no plans for Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol to arrive at the port. The overall performance of downstream is poor, with multidimensional holding on to low demand procurement and shipment, and expectations of continued destocking in the main ports of East China.
Demand: The downstream polyester load has been increased to 82%, and the overall unsaturated resin is stable. There is a significant discount from the southern region to the eastern region, and some of the goods will be sent to the southern region for replenishment. Some shipments in the Strait of Hormuz may pass through or suppress confidence in the future market. According to statistics, as of July 2nd, the average operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 33%, which was the same as the previous period. Manufacturers purchase raw materials on demand. According to statistics, from July 3rd to July 5th, a total of 679 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, with an average daily shipment of about 226 tons. On July 6th, the total shipment volume from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang was 267 tons, an increase of 40 tons compared to the previous day, and the performance of port pickup further contracted.
Market expectation: In terms of imports, the internal ships of the Persian Gulf have successfully passed through the strait, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will increase from mid to late July. In terms of domestic production, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the restart/load increase of facilities such as Gulei Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, and Sanjiang. Shenghong Petrochemical and Hengli Refining will gradually implement maintenance, and domestic supply will be compressed to a low level within the year. In terms of downstream demand, the monthly average load of polyester in July was further reduced to 82%, and the UPR operating load decreased synchronously, resulting in weakened demand support. The current supply situation continues to deviate from expectations, and prices vary greatly in different regions. However, the market’s bearish attitude towards prices is still very unified, and it is necessary to pay attention to the realization of supply and demand, and be cautious of being overly bearish on prices.

On July 2nd, the global new energy and resource landscape ushered in a landmark turning point. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) of the United States Department of Defense has officially released a tender announcement, launching a five-year special procurement plan for lithium carbonate. The plan is to purchase up to 161.67 tons of high-purity battery grade lithium carbonate, with a total contract amount of up to $300 million, specifically to supplement the US national defense reserves. This is the first time in US history that lithium carbonate has been included on a large scale in the national defense strategic reserve system.
The recent US storage incident is not accidental, but an inevitable result of global energy transformation and geopolitical competition. In the post carbon neutral era, the replacement of traditional fossil fuels with new energy has become a global consensus. Lithium batteries, as the core components of energy storage, new energy vehicles, military equipment, and intelligent terminals, are the backbone of the new energy industry. Lithium carbonate is the core raw material for manufacturing lithium batteries, and battery grade lithium carbonate with a purity of over 99.5% is an essential raw material for high-end new energy equipment and military energy storage systems.
From the perspective of the civilian sector, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, and the explosive growth of the energy storage industry has driven the continuous rigid increase in demand for lithium carbonate; From the perspective of military and defense industries, high-end equipment such as military drones, individual energy storage devices, ship power systems, and defense backup energy storage power stations are highly dependent on stable and high-quality lithium resource supply. In modern technological competition, lithium resources are no longer simply industrial raw materials, but a core element that directly affects the iteration of national defense equipment, energy supply security, and the independent and controllable industrial chain.
US strategic goal: weaken China’s global dominance in lithium refining
Currently, over 70% of the global battery grade lithium carbonate refining capacity is concentrated in China, while the domestic lithium salt refining capacity in the United States is less than 2% of the world’s total. This national defense storage is part of a complete “de Sinicization” initiative: while locking in overseas lithium resources with national defense reserves, increasing local salt lake mining, supporting North American lithium smelting capacity, and restricting Chinese companies’ overseas lithium mine investment. The long-term goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in domestic lithium salts by 2030, covering 30% -40% of domestic demand and reducing dependence on Chinese processing.
The pricing logic of lithium carbonate may be rewritten
In the past, the pricing power of lithium carbonate was completely market-oriented, and price fluctuations became the norm. During the prosperous period of the industry, capital piled up to expand production, and overcapacity caused a sharp drop in prices; During the recovery period of the industry, there is a mismatch between supply and demand, and prices are rapidly rising. The severe cyclical fluctuations pose great costs and supply chain risks to the development of new energy industries in various countries. At the national level, an overly market-oriented resource supply model cannot guarantee stable demand in key areas such as national defense, core infrastructure, and energy storage for people’s livelihoods. It is highly susceptible to factors such as international capital, geopolitical conflicts, and production capacity monopolies.
Lithium resources are included in the national defense reserve system, breaking away from the market-oriented pricing and circulation logic of ordinary commodities. Through long-term and quantitative strategic reserves, we aim to lock in high-quality lithium resource supply, hedge market cycle volatility risks, and ensure absolute autonomy and controllability of the defense core industry chain. This measure completely breaks the cyclical label of lithium carbonate and endows it with national level strategic attributes.

The impact on the total domestic lithium carbonate market is limited, but the bottom is clearly supported
The five-year upper limit is 16167 tons, with an average annual output of only about 3200 tons. By 2026, the total global demand for lithium carbonate will exceed 2 million tons of LCE, with an average annual purchase volume accounting for less than 0.3% of global demand. This will not directly drive a significant tightening of supply and demand or a surge in lithium prices. But the United States provides a “policy security cushion” for global lithium prices through defense procurement. The combination of the European Union, Japan, and South Korea is highly likely to follow suit in establishing lithium strategic reserves, increasing the demand for normalized rigid reserves, effectively bottoming out prices, significantly narrowing the downward space, and transforming the industry from a “strong cycle of rapid rise and fall” to a “range oscillation and bottom rise”.
Pushing China’s lithium resource security upgrade
The United States will include lithium in its defense reserves as a demonstration, and domestic policies will accelerate the establishment of normalized national reserves of lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate to hedge the risk of global resource competition. Domestic lithium companies are deeply cultivating the South American lithium triangle to achieve diversified and dispersed upstream resources, reduce Australia’s dependence on a single mineral source, hedge the risk of exclusive layout in the European and American supply chains, lock in overseas long-term cooperative mineral sources, and consolidate their voice in upstream resources.
Overall, the limited volume of storage orders in the United States will not change the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate, but it will effectively support lithium prices and restore corporate profits; The real impact in the medium to long term is not in order diversion, but in the comprehensive upgrading of global lithium resource geopolitical competition. Forcing China to accelerate the independent control of lithium resources and reshape the domestic lithium industry’s “local resources+overseas diversified layout+recycling” safety system.

1、 Price trend
In the first week of July 2026, the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a cold and downward trend, with market prices adjusted downwards at the beginning of the month by about 200 yuan/ton. On July 3, the Shandong n-propanol price reference was at 7400 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.63% during the week.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: The device is operating normally and the supply is relatively loose
Recently, the overall operation of n-propanol units in China has been normal, and the spot market performance is relatively loose. The overall supply side has provided moderate market support; Shandong’s major factories have lowered the price of n-propanol, leading to a decline in overall market sentiment.
On the demand side: slow follow-up of downstream demand and inadequate support for demand
At present, the overall supply of n-propanol in the domestic market is sufficient, and against the backdrop of loose supply and demand transmission, some suppliers in the market are under certain supply pressure, which has a certain drag on the price of n-propanol.
3、 Future prospects
Currently, the trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively weak, and the mentality of industry players is average. In the short term, it is predicted that the Shandong n-propanol market will mainly experience weak and narrow adjustments. In the future, it is necessary to pay more attention to whether the actual downstream procurement volume has rebounded and whether there are significant changes in the market supply.