On July 2nd, the global new energy and resource landscape ushered in a landmark turning point. The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) of the United States Department of Defense has officially released a tender announcement, launching a five-year special procurement plan for lithium carbonate. The plan is to purchase up to 161.67 tons of high-purity battery grade lithium carbonate, with a total contract amount of up to $300 million, specifically to supplement the US national defense reserves. This is the first time in US history that lithium carbonate has been included on a large scale in the national defense strategic reserve system.
The recent US storage incident is not accidental, but an inevitable result of global energy transformation and geopolitical competition. In the post carbon neutral era, the replacement of traditional fossil fuels with new energy has become a global consensus. Lithium batteries, as the core components of energy storage, new energy vehicles, military equipment, and intelligent terminals, are the backbone of the new energy industry. Lithium carbonate is the core raw material for manufacturing lithium batteries, and battery grade lithium carbonate with a purity of over 99.5% is an essential raw material for high-end new energy equipment and military energy storage systems.
From the perspective of the civilian sector, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, and the explosive growth of the energy storage industry has driven the continuous rigid increase in demand for lithium carbonate; From the perspective of military and defense industries, high-end equipment such as military drones, individual energy storage devices, ship power systems, and defense backup energy storage power stations are highly dependent on stable and high-quality lithium resource supply. In modern technological competition, lithium resources are no longer simply industrial raw materials, but a core element that directly affects the iteration of national defense equipment, energy supply security, and the independent and controllable industrial chain.
US strategic goal: weaken China’s global dominance in lithium refining
Currently, over 70% of the global battery grade lithium carbonate refining capacity is concentrated in China, while the domestic lithium salt refining capacity in the United States is less than 2% of the world’s total. This national defense storage is part of a complete “de Sinicization” initiative: while locking in overseas lithium resources with national defense reserves, increasing local salt lake mining, supporting North American lithium smelting capacity, and restricting Chinese companies’ overseas lithium mine investment. The long-term goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in domestic lithium salts by 2030, covering 30% -40% of domestic demand and reducing dependence on Chinese processing.
The pricing logic of lithium carbonate may be rewritten
In the past, the pricing power of lithium carbonate was completely market-oriented, and price fluctuations became the norm. During the prosperous period of the industry, capital piled up to expand production, and overcapacity caused a sharp drop in prices; During the recovery period of the industry, there is a mismatch between supply and demand, and prices are rapidly rising. The severe cyclical fluctuations pose great costs and supply chain risks to the development of new energy industries in various countries. At the national level, an overly market-oriented resource supply model cannot guarantee stable demand in key areas such as national defense, core infrastructure, and energy storage for people’s livelihoods. It is highly susceptible to factors such as international capital, geopolitical conflicts, and production capacity monopolies.
Lithium resources are included in the national defense reserve system, breaking away from the market-oriented pricing and circulation logic of ordinary commodities. Through long-term and quantitative strategic reserves, we aim to lock in high-quality lithium resource supply, hedge market cycle volatility risks, and ensure absolute autonomy and controllability of the defense core industry chain. This measure completely breaks the cyclical label of lithium carbonate and endows it with national level strategic attributes.

The impact on the total domestic lithium carbonate market is limited, but the bottom is clearly supported
The five-year upper limit is 16167 tons, with an average annual output of only about 3200 tons. By 2026, the total global demand for lithium carbonate will exceed 2 million tons of LCE, with an average annual purchase volume accounting for less than 0.3% of global demand. This will not directly drive a significant tightening of supply and demand or a surge in lithium prices. But the United States provides a “policy security cushion” for global lithium prices through defense procurement. The combination of the European Union, Japan, and South Korea is highly likely to follow suit in establishing lithium strategic reserves, increasing the demand for normalized rigid reserves, effectively bottoming out prices, significantly narrowing the downward space, and transforming the industry from a “strong cycle of rapid rise and fall” to a “range oscillation and bottom rise”.
Pushing China’s lithium resource security upgrade
The United States will include lithium in its defense reserves as a demonstration, and domestic policies will accelerate the establishment of normalized national reserves of lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate to hedge the risk of global resource competition. Domestic lithium companies are deeply cultivating the South American lithium triangle to achieve diversified and dispersed upstream resources, reduce Australia’s dependence on a single mineral source, hedge the risk of exclusive layout in the European and American supply chains, lock in overseas long-term cooperative mineral sources, and consolidate their voice in upstream resources.
Overall, the limited volume of storage orders in the United States will not change the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate, but it will effectively support lithium prices and restore corporate profits; The real impact in the medium to long term is not in order diversion, but in the comprehensive upgrading of global lithium resource geopolitical competition. Forcing China to accelerate the independent control of lithium resources and reshape the domestic lithium industry’s “local resources+overseas diversified layout+recycling” safety system.

1、 Price trend
In the first week of July 2026, the Shandong n-propanol market experienced a cold and downward trend, with market prices adjusted downwards at the beginning of the month by about 200 yuan/ton. On July 3, the Shandong n-propanol price reference was at 7400 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.63% during the week.
2、 Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Supply side: The device is operating normally and the supply is relatively loose
Recently, the overall operation of n-propanol units in China has been normal, and the spot market performance is relatively loose. The overall supply side has provided moderate market support; Shandong’s major factories have lowered the price of n-propanol, leading to a decline in overall market sentiment.
On the demand side: slow follow-up of downstream demand and inadequate support for demand
At present, the overall supply of n-propanol in the domestic market is sufficient, and against the backdrop of loose supply and demand transmission, some suppliers in the market are under certain supply pressure, which has a certain drag on the price of n-propanol.
3、 Future prospects
Currently, the trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively weak, and the mentality of industry players is average. In the short term, it is predicted that the Shandong n-propanol market will mainly experience weak and narrow adjustments. In the future, it is necessary to pay more attention to whether the actual downstream procurement volume has rebounded and whether there are significant changes in the market supply.

1、 Price trend
As of May 30th, the average price of high-quality industrial grade cyclohexane in China is 7416 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
On the supply side, the low sulfur main coking coal production area has a stable high price of 1850 yuan/ton, and the coking plant’s profit per ton of coke processing is only 21 yuan, close to the loss line. The willingness of coke enterprises to actively reduce prices and ship goods is extremely low, and there is a cost floor below the spot price. The traditional off-season negative feedback expectation of steel is heating up, and steel plants continue to resist high priced raw materials, limiting the further upward space of coke spot prices. After multiple rounds of price increases, there is no expectation of a new round of price increases.
In terms of cost: Upstream pure benzene has been weakly consolidated this week, with weakened cost support and reduced production profits for manufacturers. There is a lack of motivation to raise prices, and high priced sources have continued to decline in the early stages.
Market mentality: This week, the market fell first and then stabilized. Traders mainly focused on destocking, while downstream traders watched and waited for lower prices. Trading on the market was light, with most transactions being small orders for immediate needs and no large orders being made.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that with sufficient supply, off-season demand, and no significant rebound in costs, the short-term volatility of cyclohexane is weak, and there is insufficient momentum for a significant increase; If pure benzene stops falling and stabilizes, spot prices may maintain a sideways consolidation in the current range of 6000-6900.

In June 2026, the domestic nitrile rubber market fluctuated and weakened, with a significant shift in price focus. The market bid farewell to the hype in the first half of the year and returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. Overall transactions were light, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As of June 29th, the price was 16150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00% from 22175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 29th, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 15200 to 15700 yuan/ton; Southern Emperor 1052 mainstream price ranges from 17000 to 17500 yuan/ton.
The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly adjusted. As of June 29th, the price of butadiene was 8866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.86% from 11800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 29th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10133 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month. The easing of the situation in the Middle East has driven the comprehensive resumption of overseas cracking units, and the domestic butadiene port inventory has risen to a high of 38500 tons, weakening the overall cost support.
In June, the average operating rate of domestic nitrile enterprises remained at a high level of 72% -76%. Main facilities such as Lanhua and Ningbo were operating at full capacity, and coupled with the concentration of high priced imported goods in the port in the early stage, the market circulation of goods was abundant, and spot supply continued to be loose.
In June, the production of new energy vehicles remained stable, driving the urgent procurement of medium and high acrylonitrile NBR and HNBR, and stabilizing orders for head sealing factories; The demand for universal NBR for traditional fuel vehicles continues to weaken, and small and medium-sized auto parts factories have a weak willingness to purchase and replenish inventory as needed. The nitrile glove industry maintains a production rate of around 58%, mainly focused on digesting inventory. The general industrial sealing and hydraulic hose industry is dragged down by the off-season of the manufacturing industry. The incremental release of high-end sealing for energy storage and semiconductors is steadily increasing, but the limited volume makes it difficult to offset the weakness of general adhesives. Against the backdrop of falling raw material prices, downstream demand is mainly focused on acquiring goods for essential needs, with less active hoarding and overall weak demand.
As of May 20th, the nitrile rubber spread index showed a trend from strong to weak since mid April, and continued to weaken after falling below the 0 axis. Although it briefly recovered in early May, it turned downwards again in mid May, and the current negative direction has expanded, restarting the downward trend. Combining supply and demand with cost, raw material support has weakened, demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a weakly balanced pattern. Short term prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, with the center of gravity shifting downwards in the medium term and operating under pressure throughout the year.
From mid March to early April 2026, nitrile rubber was boosted by rising raw material prices and tight supply, resulting in a bullish price average. In mid April, a turning point appeared in the market, and the price of nitrile rubber continued to decline in a stepped manner. The price was under long-term pressure below the 10 and 20 day moving averages, and the bearish trend was clear. The short-term 10 day and 20 day moving averages are simultaneously moving downwards, forming a strong pressure level. Without significant bullish factors, it is difficult for prices to rebound and stabilize at the 10 day moving average, and there is still room for downward pressure; The medium-term moving average shows no signs of turning, and the trend is difficult to quickly reverse.

Overall, the market in July and August will continue its weak and volatile trend during the off-season. The annual maintenance of Lanzhou Petrochemical’s main equipment in mid July will bring about a temporary contraction of supply, which can effectively support the bottom rubber price and limit the potential for deep decline. However, weak demand during the off-season will still suppress the rebound height. The traditional peak season of September and October is approaching, and downstream product companies are preparing for production and sales in the fourth quarter. With the release of centralized replenishment demand and the mild recovery of raw material prices, the price of nitrile rubber is expected to rebound slightly, and the price range will shift upward.

This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline, with an average market price of 7600 yuan/ton as of June 26, a decrease of 1.3% from 7700 yuan/ton on June 22.
Supply side: Recently, the concentrated resumption of production of maleic anhydride units has increased market supply, coupled with insufficient downstream orders and hindered shipments, resulting in a continuous decline in prices for the main maleic anhydride factories. As of June 26th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 6300-6600 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 6100-6300 yuan/ton.
Upstream: The n-butane market fell sharply in mid June, and the domestic n-butane price rose slightly to 5450 yuan/ton this week. The CP price in Saudi Arabia in June was 820 US dollars per ton, an increase of 20 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month.
Downstream: This week, the domestic unsaturated resin market saw weak consolidation, while upstream styrene and maleic anhydride continued to decline, dragging down costs. The downstream fiberglass and building materials industries entered the traditional off-season of high temperatures, with insufficient terminal production. The short-term market still maintains a weak and narrow range of fluctuations.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin industry on the demand side is difficult to significantly increase in the short term, and the raw material prices on the cost side are weak. The production cost support for maleic anhydride is weak, and coupled with the recent concentrated resumption of maleic anhydride production, the market supply has increased. In the short term, the domestic maleic anhydride market will still remain weak.