Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 8900.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.03% over the same period last year. On July 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 63.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.65% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 81.31% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: Jianlan chemical octanol plant is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 8600 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 8800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7680.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7460.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.31% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 9550.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9375.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.83%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.81%. Downstream DOP prices fell sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle of July, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

On July 13, the average market price of 3128b lint was 17392 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day and up 3.98% year-on-year.

On July 13, the domestic cotton price index was 3128b, with an average price of 17408 yuan / ton, down 151 yuan / ton from the previous day. On the 13th, the State Reserve opened the first round of collection and storage, purchasing 5000 tons through the trading market, with a maximum price of 17550 yuan / ton (standard grade 3128b). The current cotton price trend is downward, and the collection and storage policy has a relatively limited role in supporting the bottom of cotton prices. Yesterday’s USDA July data reduced global consumption and increased ending inventory. Ice American cotton prices were under pressure to fall by the limit, while domestic Zheng cotton prices fell synchronously, falling below the 15000 mark. The psychological defense line of market participants’ continuous downward adjustment was broken one after another.

The downstream cotton yarn market has been dragged down by the falling cotton price, and the textile industry as a whole has encountered the problem of shortage of orders. Superimposed on the recent high-temperature power cuts in some areas, the number of textile enterprises that have holidays and downtime has increased, and the startup rate of yarn mills continues to decline. Due to large fluctuations in the price of raw materials, the quotation of some cotton mills was suspended. With the continuous decline of cotton prices, the confidence of the cotton textile market continued to decline, and there was a strong pessimistic atmosphere. The textile mills reported that the cotton continued to decline, resulting in a lack of follow-up orders, a decline in the grey cloth market, and an increase in the inventory of finished products of textile enterprises. At present, commodity prices are generally falling, and there is a lack of good news in the market. It is expected that cotton prices may still be weak.

On July 12, the quotation range of 1 × lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 14850-14950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14900 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 11th, the US dollar rose sharply, the crude oil price fell significantly, and the performance of the metal market last night was mixed. On the whole, it was more vulnerable, and the lead price trend was stronger. Lun lead and Shanghai lead rose more than 1% at night. Shanghai lead continued to rise in the morning, rising 1.52% as of the close. In terms of supply, the recent overhaul of the smelter was completed, the operating rate was increased, and the lead supply was restored. In terms of recycled lead, Anhui, the main production area, is limited, and the recent production is likely to decline, which is good for primary lead. The recent performance of the demand side is still off-season, but with the improvement of car sales, the recent start-up of battery enterprises has increased to a certain extent. Under the pattern of both supply and demand, it is expected that the lead price will be stable, medium and strong in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined. As of the 11th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8350 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, and the delivery situation in the phthalic anhydride market was general. Recently, the downstream demand changed little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene fell sharply, the plasticizer market fell sharply, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the downstream, and the price trend fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation in East China is 8100-8300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8000-8100 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8300-8400 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent decline in the market of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to decline in the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period.

The focus of negotiation in the domestic MIBK market has declined, continued to be in a downturn, and the overall change is limited. The reference value of the East China market is 10800-11000 yuan / ton.

This week, the upstream of domestic MIBK continued to decline, the industrial operating rate remained at about 80%, the supply was sufficient, the social inventory was high, the demand was sluggish and difficult to change, there were still many negative factors for the market, the short-term MIBK market changes were limited, and the short-term market is expected to be dominated by weak operation.

The raw material side continued to decline, the cost support fell, acetone continued to fall, and the market negotiated to 4950-5050 yuan / ton. The raw material side factory also lowered for many times, and the demand side still showed no signs of improvement. The mentality of the shippers was bad, the focus of trading and investment continued to decline, and it was difficult to mention terminal procurement.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

The terminal demand is general, and the downstream orders are dominated by rigid demand. The short-term demand changes are limited. At present, it is difficult to make major changes in costs. The operation enthusiasm of the cargo carriers is general, and the mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Short term weak adjustment operation