Recently (12.1-12.12), the trichloromethane market has been weakly consolidating. According to data from Business Society, as of December 12th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% from 2066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has shifted downwards; In addition, the overall downstream demand is weak with only a small amount of hard demand support, and transactions in the trichloromethane market are rare, resulting in lower merchant quotes.

Recently (12.1-12.12), domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have decreased, and the cost center of trichloromethane has decreased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.20% from the beginning of the month’s 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 200 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared to the previous period.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal. Currently, the delivery price of refrigerant R22 is weak and stable, with low operating costs. The support for demand for trichloromethane is weak. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that a small amount of rigid demand has weak support for trichloromethane, but cost support has weakened, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid remained stable in December. As of December 12th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7462.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 7.87% from the average market price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 7000 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated).

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-8000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7862.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.63% lower than the average market price of 7912.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.28%. On December 10th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has stabilized at a high level this week, with a price of 7550.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 18.16% year-on-year. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate stabilized at a high level, with a price of 5475.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 6.81% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, and downstream customers have average demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidating at a high level, with average downstream demand and mainly focused on purchasing for immediate needs. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8100 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 8090 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.12% in the quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9125 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 9107 yuan/ton, during which the quotation fell by 0.19%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8550 yuan/ton on December 4th, and the average price on December 8th was 8550 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

This week, the polyethylene market saw a narrow adjustment in operation. On the cost side, international crude oil has declined, and the support for polyethylene on the cost side has weakened. The maintenance equipment of petrochemical enterprises has decreased compared to the previous period, and the supply of polyethylene is still sufficient. In addition, there is an expectation of an increase in imported goods. Agricultural film and pipe materials are in the off-season of demand, with limited new orders for packaging film, and a poor transaction atmosphere. Downstream purchases are mainly based on low demand, and procurement is relatively cautious. Traders adjust their offers and have a strong willingness to sell at a discounted price. As the weekend approaches, market sentiment rebounds and there is a slight upward trend in quotations, but there is limited room for upward adjustment.

On December 8th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7960 yuan, the closing price was 8057 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan, the highest was 8074 yuan, the lowest was 7940 yuan, an increase of 1.28%.

The polyethylene market is oversupplied with flat demand, and it is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate weakly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5062.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde was 5037.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 1.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.00%.

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to operate at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishes inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The domestic methanol market situation is mainly sorted out.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has experienced a slight decline, with downstream demand maintaining procurement and polyformaldehyde manufacturers shipping normally. Business Society polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly decline.