In early November, the price center of dimethyl carbonate continued to shift downwards, and in mid November, it accelerated its weakening. As of November 12th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 5233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.80% from the beginning of the month. The main reason is the abundant supply combined with weak downstream demand for electrolytes, PC, etc., which weakens the support of loose costs. Short term expectations are mainly weak and volatile, lacking unilateral upward driving force.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost collapse: International oil prices have fallen, major domestic crude oil contracts have plummeted, and the energy driven sectors have collectively retreated; The prices of upstream raw materials such as methanol and epichlorohydrin have fallen, significantly reducing cost support.
Supply continues to be loose: early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and there is ample supply of goods on site. Some factories have voluntarily offered discounts to ease inventory pressure, strengthening the buyer’s market structure.
The demand side has shown a flat performance: the demand for lithium battery electrolyte solvents has significantly decreased, while traditional downstream products such as polycarbonate (PC) and coatings maintain a rigid procurement model of “on-demand procurement, small orders on demand”, which resists high priced sources and is difficult to digest the increase in spot goods.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the dimethyl carbonate market lacks significant positive support and is expected to continue its weak operation or consolidation trend after a decline.
Difficulty in improving supply and demand: Most factories maintain normal production, while market supply remains high; There has not been a clear signal of increased volume in terminal demand, and actual transactions are still dominated by rigid demand.
Limited cost support: If the raw material market continues to weaken, the bottom of costs will further dynamically move downwards, and the support for finished product prices will be insufficient.
Potential rebound opportunity: The space for deep decline may be limited. If the price falls back to a certain level, export orders may be concentrated or trigger temporary replenishment, which may bring a temporary halt to the decline and slow down the consolidation.
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