The market trend has been rapidly declining in the PA6 spot market in the past week (November 4-10). On November 4th, the average market price of PA6 was 15033.33 yuan/ton, which fell to 13433.33 yuan/ton on November 10th, with a cumulative decline of 10.64% during the week. From the perspective of cycle position, the price has rapidly fallen from its high point within the year; At the technical indicator level, the 10 day moving average has penetrated the 20 day moving average downwards, forming a clear bearish signal, and the price positions of each short cycle have synchronously declined, confirming the downward trend.
influencing factors
The upstream pure benzene price on the cost side has continuously decreased this week, driving down the cost center of caprolactam. The market supply of caprolactam is abundant, and the price has significantly weakened during the week, which has significantly loosened the cost support for PA6 slices. Although some aggregation factories have incurred losses, the lack of rebound momentum on the raw material side makes it difficult to effectively support the slicing price, and the cost side has become an important driving force for this round of decline.
On the supply and demand side, the domestic PA6 polymerization plant has maintained a high level of operation in the early stage, and the market has sufficient spot supply. The accumulated inventory pressure in the early stage is gradually released. Faced with a rapidly declining market, holders of goods have increased their willingness to ship, leading to increased market selling pressure. Some major manufacturers have voluntarily lowered their quotes, further driving down spot prices in negotiations. On the demand side, downstream industries such as spinning, modification, and injection molding have limited capacity to increase production, showing a characteristic of “following up on urgent needs and observing low prices”. The overall number of new orders in the terminal is insufficient, and downstream enterprises maintain a cautious attitude towards the rapidly declining market. They mainly consume their own inventory and replenish it in small quantities according to demand. Their willingness to actively stock up on a large scale is weak, and there is a lack of strong demand acceptance, resulting in overall weak market trading.
Future forecast: The PA6 market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The overall loose pattern of raw material caprolactam is difficult to change temporarily, and coupled with the lack of significant recovery in downstream terminal demand, there is still downward pressure on the market; However, after a rapid pullback this week, some aggregation factories have intensified their losses, and there is a possibility of negative pressure hedging in the later stage, which will provide a certain bottom for prices. The space for sustained deep decline is limited, and the mainstream operating range is expected to be 12900-13800 yuan/ton. The focus is on factory equipment adjustment and downstream autumn and winter order fulfillment.
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