Market Review
From October 28th to November 2nd, the spot price of PA6 remained stable at 15200 yuan/ton. On November 3rd, the price fell back to 15033.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.10%. In terms of cycle position, the early stages of this week remained at high levels, but on November 3rd, the 10 day level fell back to a low level. Warning signals showed that the short-term moving average had crossed below, and the upward momentum in the early stage had subsided. The price shifted from a high level sideways to a slight correction.
Cost side
The upstream caprolactam disk is running weakly, and the support strength at the raw material end is loose, which weakens the bottom support effect of cost on PA6. The supply side of caprolactam is relatively abundant, lacking sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to support the maintenance of high slice prices, which brings downward pressure to PA6.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA6 factories in China maintain a high level of operating load, with sufficient supply of spot goods, and the pressure of market circulation inventory is gradually emerging. On the demand side, downstream industries such as modification, spinning, and injection molding have weak order follow-up, and terminal procurement is mainly based on immediate procurement of essential needs. The willingness to stock up at high levels is cautious, and there is no centralized replenishment action. The demand is difficult to undertake high-level sources of goods, and the upward resistance is relatively high. Overall, there is a pattern of sufficient supply and insufficient demand follow-up, with high-level pressure leading to a pullback.
Short term forecast for the future market
In the short term, the raw material caprolactam is relatively weak, coupled with the lack of significant recovery in downstream demand, PA6 may mainly fluctuate weakly, and there is further room for price correction, with heavy upward pressure.
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