1、 Price trend
As of July 16th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises is 4220 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market lacks favorable support, and the mentality of operators is bearish. Market prices are mainly under pressure, downstream purchases are cautious, and small orders for essential needs are the main focus. The cost support for raw material methanol is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, in mid July 2026, the domestic DMF market as a whole showed a low-level stalemate and weak consolidation trend. The average price of the mainstream market in East China fluctuated around the range of 4400-4500 yuan/ton, narrowing the decline compared to June but with weak rebound. Under the dual pressure of weak costs and low demand season, the market lacked clear directional guidance, and industry players had a strong wait-and-see attitude. Actual transactions were mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of raw materials: Raw material trends: Recently, the domestic methanol market has been affected by the easing of the geopolitical situation and the expectation of port inventory accumulation, resulting in weak price fluctuations and limited cost support. Although there have been occasional rebounds in liquid ammonia/synthetic ammonia prices, they have remained stable overall and have not formed strong support. The operating rate situation: Currently, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the overall operating rate is around 40% (in some periods, it is calculated to be in the range of 40% -45%). Some units in Henan, Guizhou, Shandong and other places are in a negative, short-term or long-term shutdown state due to profit or inventory pressure, and the supply increment has been reduced.
Profit situation: Due to the synchronous decline of the raw material side, the theoretical production profit of DMF factory remains at around 300 yuan/ton with narrow fluctuations. The integrated equipment and leading enterprises still have certain profit margins, and have not yet reached the red line of large-scale losses forcing parking. Therefore, the willingness of the factory to actively raise prices or reduce production on a large scale is not strong, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive price increases.
In terms of demand, the main downstream market is weak: PU pulp (accounting for about 60% of consumption) corresponds to the traditional high temperature off-season in the footwear, clothing, luggage, and artificial leather industries, with insufficient terminal orders and low operating rates of pulp factories. DMF procurement is implemented on a “as needed” basis, with no intention of stockpiling. Other areas have limited support: although the demand for pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, and electronic grade solvents is relatively stable, the proportion of volume is not enough to offset the gap in pulp decline; Although there has been a surge in exports in the early stages (such as a record high in May), the recent off-season overseas and fluctuations in shipping costs have led to a marginal weakening of the digestion effect of export growth on domestic inventory.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that if the raw material methanol continues to weaken due to port storage, the cost center of DMF will shift downwards, and if the industry’s production starts to recover with the restart of previous maintenance facilities (such as some in Henan and Hubei), supply pressure will once again become prominent.
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