PTA experienced a deep decline in June, and in July, it relied on centralized maintenance to initiate a repair market, showing an overall strong range oscillation pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5910 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the month.
Cost side: PX maintenance support cost
July is the peak period for annual maintenance of PX, with multiple large-scale PX facilities such as Shenghong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining and Chemical shutting down simultaneously. The Asian PX operating rate has fallen to a low point this year, and the price difference between PX and Sinopec remains high, firmly holding onto the bottom line of PTA costs; Brent crude oil fluctuates narrowly within the range of $70-73, with limited geopolitical disturbance and no risk of collapse on the cost side.
Supply side: Maintenance contraction, continuous inventory depletion
Multiple sets of PTA main equipment are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to around 57% in July, which is at a low level in recent years. The market’s supply of goods is tightening, and port and factory inventories are steadily decreasing. Spot processing fees remain at a high level of 600-700 yuan/ton, supporting the resilience of spot prices.
Demand side: textile off-season suppresses upward space
July is still the traditional off-season for textiles, with an overall polyester production rate of about 80%. The inventory of finished polyester filament products is high, and the autumn and winter orders for weaving terminals have not been released in a concentrated manner. Factories mainly purchase sporadically for basic needs and are unwilling to actively stock up, which limits the upward height of PTA; The market is mainly waiting for the August peak season replenishment signal.
Business analysts believe that the current maintenance cycle for PX and PTA has not yet ended, and the tight supply-demand balance pattern continues. PTA will maintain a high range of fluctuations, with stable bottom support, making it difficult to experience a deep pullback. At the end of July to early August, a large number of maintenance facilities were restarted one after another, and the supply increment was released. The focus of the market will shift to downstream peak season order fulfillment efforts.
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